Senate projection.......

[nat4900]

The most conservative (pardon the term) projection for the US Senate (currently at 54 R and 44 D) have republicans losing at least 4 seats, totaling then a 50 R, 48 D with 2 Ind. who caucus with the Dems.

That will make the Senate a 50-50 split, BUT with a democratic VP as president of the senate, the total will be (at least) 51 D to 50 R.

The above is important when estimating the upcoming struggle for the senate to "consent" SCOTUS nominees.

Bear in mind that a majority in the senate CAN change the current rules and declare that rather than a vote of 60-40, a simple majority can pass through a nomination.

The 60-40 rule was enacted to give a stronger voice to the minority in the senate, BUT the current refusal by McConnell to even entertain an Obama nomination, has angered voters to support a simple majority vote.

 

[nat4900]

Update: beside those Dem pick of 4, there are 3 more that may swing to the Dems. PA, NC and MO; if this were to happen, the senate would have undergone a complete reversal of the current GOP majority in the senate.

 

[GHook93]

First, do you know why the 60 vote filibuster is never done away with? Because it takes 60 votes to do away with it. When the majority has 60 votes they aren't going to touch it. When the majority has less then 60 vote the minority is never going to give the extra votes to do away with it. Also as we have seen one party getting 60 votes is very tough to achieve.

Second, if the Dems get 50 seats it will be short lived 2018 is going to be a big pick up year for the GOP. There are a ton of Democrats seats in red states.