Seeds of Confrontation: The New Naval Balance in the Eastern Mediterranean

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Historically the area has been contested by great powers, most recently by the U.S. Sixth Fleet and the Soviet navy, the latter of which was granted base facilities at various times by friendly Arab states. The end of the Cold War saw that period fade away, although significant relics of it remain in Russia's relationship with Syria. The residual Sixth Fleet is also but a shadow of its former self, with the Italian-based command ship the USS Mount Whitney being the only permanently based asset. The Sixth Fleets strength fluctuates widely from a full-scale carrier battle group transiting between the Atlantic and Indian oceans; to the force deployed against Libya, which included an amphibious flat top; to the destroyer and coastguard cutter that accompanied the Mount Whitney to the Black Sea in 2008, when the U.S. engaged in gentle gunboat diplomacy to demonstrate its concern following the Russia-Georgia War.

The Turkish Navys Force Structure

The decline in great-power presence in the Eastern Mediterranean has put greater emphasis on the local fleets, of which the most powerful is undoubtedly Turkey's. Rebuffed by Europe and with a seriously deteriorated relationship with Israel, Turkey is now acting as an autonomous local player, with a willingness to look after its own interests using its own maritime muscle. That includes 14 conventionally powered submarines of German design, the largest such flotilla in the world. The newer boats are fitted for anti-ship missiles and the last four for surface-to-surface cruise missiles.

The largest components of Turkeys surface force are the eight 3,640-ton frigates of the American Oliver Hazard Perry (FFG-7) type, transferred from the U.S. -- over Greek protests -- between 1998 and 2003. These Gaziantep-class ships have been modernized with the Turkish Genesis combat-management system, which has greatly enhanced their capabilities compared to the original design. The boats supplemented eight frigates of European origin: four 3,380-ton MEKO 200 TN-II frigates commissioned between 1995 and 2000 and built in two batches, with one of each built in Turkey; and four smaller 2,900-ton MEKO 200 TN-I ships delivered in the late-1980s, the last of which was also Turkish-built.

Only one of the eight less-capable Knox-class American frigates transferred in the 1990s remains, the ships having been replaced in the coastal patrol role by cheaper-to-operate French A69-class Avisos, six of which form the Burak class. These will be replaced in turn by the impressive new Milgem corvettes, the first of which, the Heybeliyada, entered service in September 2011. These are the first products of Turkeys Mili Gemi (or National Ships) program, which has been a major component of Ankaras successful quest for national self-sufficiency in warship building. The first ship was built at Istanbul Naval Shipyard, which is also building the second, the Buyukada, to a slightly larger, more heavily armed TF100 general-purpose frigate design. Four of these are planned, along with eight corvettes.

There are plans for a bigger, 6,000-ton TF-2000 air-defense frigate also to be built in Turkey, while a new class of six air-independent submarines of Type 214TN is on order. The boats, of German design but with a good deal of Turkish equipment, will be assembled in Turkey -- as were all but three of the previous boats of German design -- and will be fully missile-capable. There are also plans to upgrade the existing 45-strong amphibious squadron with an amphibious transport dock (LPD) equipped with landing hovercraft (LCACs) and new tank-landing craft.

Turkey deploys a large flotilla of smaller vessels, including 27 missile-armed fast attack craft, 16 slower patrol vessels and 20 mine-countermeasures ships. A smaller patrol vessel is under indigenous development and the latest mine-hunters are of German design but Turkish build.

In all, the Turkish navy is developing into a remarkably powerful and increasingly self-sufficient force; the capabilities of the Turkish company Aselsan to provide radar and other high-technology equipment complements the increasing capabilities of the Turkish shipbuilding yards. Turkey's navy will be increasingly capable of carrying out sea-control and power-projection missions in the Eastern Mediterranean and looks set to be an increasingly significant maritime instrument for the Turkish government in the region.

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For now, the big winner in this shift is Turkey, whose overall military capacity is currently in the top 10 globally, according to some calculations. Turkey's current naval fleet is not only significant but also pre-eminent among those of local actors. More importantly in the longer term, Turkey does not seem to be facing the economic difficulties that are buffeting the U.S. and the EU (especially Greece), the political upheavals that are affecting the Arab world, or the hostile environment that force Israel to concentrate on its land and air forces. For Israel, too, the sinking of the Hanit by Hezbollah raises questions about Israeli naval readiness, although as a wake-up call it might have had a more positive effect.

For now, this seems to leave the Eastern Mediterranean to the Turks, with their growing capacities for indigenous production of ships and equipment reinforcing their position. The regions future will in part depend on how far Turkey can be persuaded not to capitalize unilaterally on this favorable situation in ways that make the other actors feel uncomfortable or which finally lead to the outbreak of armed conflict and the use of force at and from the sea.

WPR Article | Seeds of Confrontation: The New Naval Balance in the Eastern Mediterranean

 

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Said the Turkish Prime Minister: "I recommend the international community take the necessary lessons from the Preveza victory. Turkey's national interests in the seas reach from its surrounding waters to the Suez Canal and the Indian Ocean."

Read more: Articles: Erdogan and the Long Shadow of Lepanto

A hundred years of the Turk dealing with himself is enough, the region awaits the Turk's return.

 

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Turkey warned Thursday that it will not allow under any circumstances foreign oil companies to conduct unauthorized oil and natural gas exploration and exploitation activities in the Eastern Mediterranean and will take all necessary measures to protect its rights in the areas within its continental shelf.

POLITICS - Turkey warns Greek Cyprus on oil drilling ahead of Israeli PM visit

Don't touch our Oil.

 

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A perhaps greater source of danger is the confrontation over offshore oil and gas reserves under the seabed around Cyprus. This is complicated by Turkey's nonrecognition of the Republic of Cyprus and Ankaras backing of the Turkish-occupied enclave in the north of the island (itself the result of successful maritime power projection by the Turkish navy in 1974). By consequence, Turkey claims rights to the offshore energy reserves to the south and the north of Cyprus, which lie in what Ankara considers to be Turkish waters delimited by agreement with Northern Cyprus. Turkey has used its navy to confront Cypriot oil drilling and to escort Turkish vessels engaged in surveying activities in the area. Rhetoric on both sides ran especially high in September.

Israel also has claims to the east of Cyprus, and there has been a growing Cypriot-Israeli entente against Turkey.

WPR Article | Seeds of Confrontation: The New Naval Balance in the Eastern Mediterranean

Our energy needs are rising rapidly and we already have to pay 57 Billion $ a year for energy to foreigners.
If we can't find Oil in Black-Sea, we'll take our Oil from Eastern-Med to sustain our growth which is 2nd behind China within G-20.
If we can mount ambhibious operation to Cyprus in 70's we can do so even better in 201X.

 

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www.oecd.org/dataoecd/37/51/48641944.pdf

According to order books, this resulted in Turkey being regularly placed in the top ten countries on the basis of its deadweight (dwt) production, and in the top five countries by the number of ships.

We now have a workforce of more than 33.000 people who are in the business of building ships as Turkey has become 5th biggest ship-building nation.
If there's war we'll put one ship after another into sea.

 

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The steel-production capacity we have also:

Turkey has become the 10th biggest producer of steel globally and second largest steel producer in Europe
steelguru.com


www.oecd.org/dataoecd/38/13/47854766.pdf