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Sea Levels Rising 60% Faster Than Projected, Planet Keeps Warming As Expected
By Joe Romm on Nov 28, 2012
[/INDENT]A new study, Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011, confirms that climate change is happening as fast and in some cases faster than climate models had projected. The news release explains:
The rate of sea-level rise in the past decades is greater than projected by the latest assessments of the IPCC, while global temperature increases in good agreement with its best estimates. This is shown by a study now published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and his colleagues compare climate projections to actual observations from 1990 up to 2011. That sea level is rising faster than expected could mean that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) sea-level rise projections for the future may be biased low as well, their results suggest.As Dr. Rahmstorf notes, the new findings highlight that the IPCC is far from being alarmist and in fact in some cases rather underestimates possible risks.
The oceans are rising 60 per cent faster than the IPCCs latest best estimates, according to the new research. The researchers compared those estimates to satellite data of observed sea-level rise. Satellites have a much better coverage of the globe than tide gauges and are able to measure much more accurately by using radar waves and their reflection from the sea surface, explains Anny Cazenave from LEGOS. While the IPCC projected sea-level rise to be at a rate of 2 mm per year, satellite data recorded a rate of 3.2 mm per year.
The release notes, The increased rate of sea-level rise is unlikely to be caused by a temporary episode of ice discharge from the ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica or other internal variabilities in the climate system, according to the study, because it correlates very well with the increase in global temperature.
Figure: Sea level measured by satellite altimeter (red with linear trend line) and reconstructed from tide gauges (orange, monthly data from Church and White (2011)) . The scenarios of the IPCC are shown in blue (third assessment) and green (fourth assessment); the former have been published starting in the year 1990 and the latter from 2000.
As sea level rises, storm surges worsen, coastal populations are put at risk, and salt water infiltrates rich deltas. For more on likely future sea level rise, see New Studies on Sea Level Rise Make Clear We Must Act Now and JPL bombshell: Polar ice sheet mass loss is speeding up, on pace for 1 foot sea level rise by 2050.
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https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-5-1.html
Global sea level is projected to rise during the 21st century at a greater rate than during 1961 to 2003. Under the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario by the mid-2090s, for instance, global sea level reaches 0.22 to 0.44 m above 1990 levels, and is rising at about 4 mm yr1.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-5-1-figure-1.html
the left wing sites are a cranking out the sky is falling propaganda fast and furious lately..
If we don't give our government control of our lives because of global warming, WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE...
Because we know they are the gods of the weather and only they can CONTROL the weather, I'm mean, US PEOPLE
What liberties are you being asked to give up to curtail anthropogenic global warming?
FCT, 3.2 mm/yr IS 60% greater than 2.0 mm/yr. Here is the text that accompanied that graphic.
3. Global sea-level rise
Turning to sea level, the quasi linear trend measured by satellite altimeters since 1993 has continued essentially unchanged when extending the time series by five additional years. It continues to run near the upper limit of the projected uncertainty range given in the third and fourth IPCC assessment reports (figure 2). Here, the sea-level projections provided in figure 5 of the summary for policy makers of the third assessment and in table SPM.3 of the fourth assessment are shown. The satellite-based linear trend 19932011 is 3.2 ± 0.5 mm yr−1, which is 60% faster than the best IPCC estimate of 2.0 mm yr−1 for the same interval (blue lines). The two temporary sea-level minima in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 may be linked to strong La Niña events (Llovel et al 2011). The tide gauges show much greater variability, most likely since their number is too limited to properly sample the global average (Rahmstorf et al 2012). For sea level the fourth IPCC report did not publish the model-based time series (green lines), but these were made available online in 2012 (CSIRO 2012). They do not differ significantly from the projections of the third IPCC report and thus continue to underestimate the observed upward trend.
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The multiple blue and green lines show the lowest and highest of the multiple scenarios for which the IPCC produced projections. The actual data is 60% higher than the mean of those earlier projections. That is not lying, that is presenting data reasonably and accurately.
Sea levels are rising 60% faster than the IPCC's best estimate. And this despite atmospheric temperatures leveling. Hmm... maybe Balmaseda, Trenberth and Kallen could explain what's happening.
((((YAWN))))
-Geaux
Unprecedented July Cold - Arctic Sees Shortest Summer On Record
Unprecedented July Cold Arctic Sees Shortest Summer On Record
by ROBERT on AUGUST 2, 2013 ·
r
Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing. This year there was less than half that, says Steven Goddard website.
I thought Obama was going to stop the seas from rising when he was elected?
FCT, 3.2 mm/yr IS 60% greater than 2.0 mm/yr. Here is the text that accompanied that graphic.
3. Global sea-level rise
Turning to sea level, the quasi linear trend measured by satellite altimeters since 1993 has continued essentially unchanged when extending the time series by five additional years. It continues to run near the upper limit of the projected uncertainty range given in the third and fourth IPCC assessment reports (figure 2). Here, the sea-level projections provided in figure 5 of the summary for policy makers of the third assessment and in table SPM.3 of the fourth assessment are shown. The satellite-based linear trend 19932011 is 3.2 ± 0.5 mm yr−1, which is 60% faster than the best IPCC estimate of 2.0 mm yr−1 for the same interval (blue lines). The two temporary sea-level minima in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 may be linked to strong La Niña events (Llovel et al 2011). The tide gauges show much greater variability, most likely since their number is too limited to properly sample the global average (Rahmstorf et al 2012). For sea level the fourth IPCC report did not publish the model-based time series (green lines), but these were made available online in 2012 (CSIRO 2012). They do not differ significantly from the projections of the third IPCC report and thus continue to underestimate the observed upward trend.
***********************************************************************************************
The multiple blue and green lines show the lowest and highest of the multiple scenarios for which the IPCC produced projections. The actual data is 60% higher than the mean of those earlier projections. That is not lying, that is presenting data reasonably and accurately.
Sea levels are rising 60% faster than the IPCC's best estimate. And this despite atmospheric temperatures leveling. Hmm... maybe Balmaseda, Trenberth and Kallen could explain what's happening.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/faq-5-1.html
Satellite observations available since the early 1990s provide more accurate sea level data with nearly global coverage. This decade-long satellite altimetry data set shows that since 1993, sea level has been rising at a rate of around 3 mm yr1, significantly higher than the average during the previous half century. Coastal tide gauge measurements confirm this observation, and indicate that similar rates have occurred in some earlier decades.
((((YAWN))))
-Geaux
Unprecedented July Cold - Arctic Sees Shortest Summer On Record
Unprecedented July Cold Arctic Sees Shortest Summer On Record
by ROBERT on AUGUST 2, 2013 ·
r
Normally the high Arctic has about 90 days above freezing. This year there was less than half that, says Steven Goddard website.
Yet, right now this is the sixth lowest ice minimum on record.
Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png
And the Northeast Passage is almost ice free once again;
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
Second its never constant, there are ancient maps showing the coastlines of Antarctica
