Sea Levels Rising 60% Faster Than Projected, Planet Keeps Warming As Expected

[Star]

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Sea Levels Rising 60% Faster Than Projected, Planet Keeps Warming As Expected

By Joe Romm on Nov 28, 2012

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A new study, “Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011,” confirms that climate change is happening as fast — and in some cases faster — than climate models had projected. The news release explains:

The rate of sea-level rise in the past decades is greater than projected by the latest assessments of the IPCC, while global temperature increases in good agreement with its best estimates. This is shown by a study now published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and his colleagues compare climate projections to actual observations from 1990 up to 2011. That sea level is rising faster than expected could mean that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sea-level rise projections for the future may be biased low as well, their results suggest.
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As Dr. Rahmstorf notes, “the new findings highlight that the IPCC is far from being alarmist and in fact in some cases rather underestimates possible risks.”

The oceans are rising 60 per cent faster than the IPCC’s latest best estimates, according to the new research. The researchers compared those estimates to satellite data of observed sea-level rise. ” Satellites have a much better coverage of the globe than tide gauges and are able to measure much more accurately by using radar waves and their reflection from the sea surface,” explains Anny Cazenave from LEGOS. While the IPCC projected sea-level rise to be at a rate of 2 mm per year, satellite data recorded a rate of 3.2 mm per year.

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Figure: Sea level measured by satellite altimeter (red with linear trend line) … and reconstructed from tide gauges (orange, monthly data from Church and White (2011))…. The scenarios of the IPCC are shown in blue (third assessment) and green (fourth assessment); the former have been published starting in the year 1990 and the latter from 2000.

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The release notes, “The increased rate of sea-level rise is unlikely to be caused by a temporary episode of ice discharge from the ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica or other internal variabilities in the climate system, according to the study, because it correlates very well with the increase in global temperature.”
As sea level rises, storm surges worsen, coastal populations are put at risk, and salt water infiltrates rich deltas. For more on likely future sea level rise, see “New Studies on Sea Level Rise Make Clear We Must Act Now” and “JPL bombshell: Polar ice sheet mass loss is speeding up, on pace for 1 foot sea level rise by 2050.”

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[Old Rocks]

Ah, but these are those danged pointy headed librul scientists. Much better to get your information from obese junkies on the radio. After all, didn't he just hit the effects of Sandy right on the head?

Good articles, won't change anything or anybodies opinions. Those in denial will remain that way until they personally experiance a weather related disaster.

 

[waltky]

Granny was gonna buy a trailer onna beach in Fla. an' retire...

... but she decided it gonna be beachfront property here purt soon...

.. possum worried we gonna have sharks swimmin' `round the trailer.

 

[JFK_USA]

Climate change isnt real. I don't care how much intelligent analysis has been conducted. Oh Hannity, give me more talking points

-Republicans.

 

[bripat9643]

.
Sea Levels Rising 60% Faster Than Projected, Planet Keeps Warming As Expected

Sea Level Rise Much Slower Than Predicted

Sea Level Rise Much Slower Than Predicted

A new, first-of-its-kind comprehensive scientific analysis has shown that there is little to fear from rising sea levels driven by global warming. The likelihood is that the 21st century will see rises much like those of the 20th, and even in the worst possible case sea levels in 2100 will be far below those foreseen by alarmists.—Lewis Page, The Register, 3 October 2012

 

[SSDD]

The fact that you guys keep making these "sky is falling" claims when direct observation slaps you down most cruelly simply boggles the mind.

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Paper: Sea Level Rise Not Accelerating (Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans)



THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper shows sea levels around Australia have declined over the past 7000 years (Quaternary Science Reviews)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Sea Level Change: The Last 120 Million Years

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Sea levels were much higher and ice sheets less stable 120,000 years ago with 'safe' CO2 levels (Nature Geoscience)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level trends are biased by natural ocean oscillations (Geophysical Research Letters)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Inconvenient Truth: Sea Level Rise has Decelerated 44% since 2005 (Ocean Science)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Sea level rise in Southwest Pacific dropped by factor of 6 during latter half of 20th century (Earth and Planetary Science Letters)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Settled science update: 'Greenhouse gases' don't cause sea level rise (The Journal of Climate)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level rise has greatly decelerated over past 10 years ( Coastal Engineering )

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper shows sea level rise of less than 7 inches per century with no acceleration (Journal of Geophysical Research)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Analysis finds satellite data has been continuously 'adjusted' to exaggerate sea level rise

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level changes since 1950 have been due to natural variability (Climate of the Past)

 

[IanC]

The fact that you guys keep making these "sky is falling" claims when direct observation slaps you down most cruelly simply boggles the mind.

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Paper: Sea Level Rise Not Accelerating (Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans)



THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper shows sea levels around Australia have declined over the past 7000 years (Quaternary Science Reviews)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Sea Level Change: The Last 120 Million Years

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Sea levels were much higher and ice sheets less stable 120,000 years ago with 'safe' CO2 levels (Nature Geoscience)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level trends are biased by natural ocean oscillations (Geophysical Research Letters)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Inconvenient Truth: Sea Level Rise has Decelerated 44% since 2005 (Ocean Science)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Sea level rise in Southwest Pacific dropped by factor of 6 during latter half of 20th century (Earth and Planetary Science Letters)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Settled science update: 'Greenhouse gases' don't cause sea level rise (The Journal of Climate)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level rise has greatly decelerated over past 10 years ( Coastal Engineering )

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper shows sea level rise of less than 7 inches per century with no acceleration (Journal of Geophysical Research)

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: Analysis finds satellite data has been continuously 'adjusted' to exaggerate sea level rise

THE HOCKEY SCHTICK: New paper finds sea level changes since 1950 have been due to natural variability (Climate of the Past)

I have pointed out the distorted data and the improbability of high SLR changes on many occasions. the CAGW alarmists here simply dont believe that nothing is happening no matter what the evidence says.

 

[Old Rocks]

What real scientists are stating rather wingnut rags like the Canada Free Press.

Sea Level Trends

 

[Stephanie]

I thought Obama was going to stop the seas from rising when he was elected?

 

[waltky]

Granny says, "Dat's right - dem climate warming warnings not dire enough...

New Analysis Sees Major Climate Impact on Low-Lying Islands
April 11, 2013 - Talk of climate change always includes a warning about melting icecaps, which will raise sea levels and threaten island nations and coastal communities. But a new analysis by the U.S. Geological Survey says those warnings are not dire enough.

The computer projections typically used to predict sea-level rise are based on map data and simple rising-water models, which suggest that most of the low-lying Pacific atolls will remain above sea level for the next 50-150 years. The new forecast takes storm-driven wind and wave actions into account, leading to a scenario that has many of the atolls inundated and uninhabitable much sooner.

A general view of Midway Island

USGS oceanographer Curt Storlazzi studied Midway and Laysan atolls, which have coastal features common to many Pacific islands. His team determined that 91 percent of Midway's Eastern Island would be under water with a sea level rise of 2 meters, compared to the earlier forecast of 19 percent.

Storlazzi said the findings have importance for the tens of thousands of people who live on other low-lying islands, and offer tools for forecasting where agricultural land may be damaged by repeated overwash from the ocean, and where inland groundwater may be contaminated by saltwater.

Source

 

[gslack]

WOW,thinkprogress...

Now that's a reliable,un-bias source....Cough, cough

 

[Politico]

Cool the beach will be closer.

 

[skookerasbil]

The most pertinent question here is......so what?


These fuckers are so boring......like those who tell jokes but never tell the punch line.


What the fuck is the point of this thread?


Because it is designed to raise consciousness about the CO2 threat, nobody cares.

 

[skookerasbil]

SSDD, Frank et. al........

Check this vid out.

» Billy Corgan: Something Greater Than Fear Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!


Assholes like STAR are just the type of brainless jerkoffs Billy Corgan ( Smashing Pumpkins) is talking about here......but fascinating piece about the illusion created for the purpose of herding the sheep. While you watch the vid, just think of the hopelessly duped meatheads who wander in here to post and you'll be laughing your asses off.

 

[waltky]

Granny hopin' the back forty'll end up makin' a nice beachfront property...

Climate Change Threatening America’s Coastline ‘From Sea to Shining Sea’
August 19, 2013 – Rep. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) stated on the House floor last month that Republicans should acknowledge that climate change “is real and it’s already affecting the earth in profound ways,” including the United States of America.

“Unpredictable and destructive weather patterns are making it harder for farmers to grow crops, while rising sea levels threaten our coastal cities and beaches from sea to shining sea,” Johnson said. “The scientific consensus is clear: Human activity is causing our planet to warm to dangerous levels. Scientists agree that higher temperatures are raising sea levels and driving severe weather patterns that threaten our economy and our way of life,” the congressman said.

“Here in Congress, the [House] majority refuses to even acknowledge that we have a problem while the rest of the world seems to understand that it’s the moral imperative of our time,” he said. “I urge my colleagues to put politics aside, listen to the science, and come together and begin to help prevent the worst effects of climate change,” Johnson said.

As CNSNews.com previously reported, in a June 20 interview with Spiegel Online, German climate scientist Hans von Storch said that despite predictions of a warming planet, the temperature data for the past 15 years shows an increase of 0.06 or “very close to zero.”

“So far, no one has been able to provide a compelling answer to why climate change seems to be taking a break,” Storch said, adding that “recent CO2 emissions have actually risen even more steeply than we feared.” “As a result, according to most climate models, we should have seen temperatures rise by around 0.25 degrees Celsius (0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 10 years,” he added.

- See more at: Dem to GOP: Climate Change Threatening America?s Coastline ?From Sea to Shining Sea? | CNS News

See also:

Federal Remapping of Sandy-Damaged Areas May Curb Coastal Development
August 20, 2013 - If your seaside home or business washes away in a coastal storm, will you be allowed to rebuild? Or would sand dunes in place of buildings make the area more "resilient"?

The federal government announced on Monday that it is remapping storm-damaged areas of the East Coast, a move that will contribute to new "resilience standards" for the post-Hurricane Sandy rebuilding effort. The updated Environmental Sensitivity Index maps will provide "important reference material for green infrastructure planning," said a report released Monday by a federal task force that is shaping the rebuilding strategy.

According to the task force, "Green infrastructure includes natural and/or restored features (e.g., wetlands or sand dune ecosystems), that incorporate the natural processes (e.g., flood protection, water filtration) that are recognized as integral to community, economic, and environmental resilience. These approaches have proven successful in other regions, and it appears they reduced flood damage where applied in the region impacted by Sandy." In fact, the task force recommends that "green infrastructure options" be considered in all post-Sandy infrastructure investments.

"By building more resilient regions, we can save billions in taxpayer dollars," HUD Secretary Shaun Donovan said in a task force report on rebuilding Sandy-damaged regions.

Three federal agencies -- the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers -- announced Tuesday that they will use ships, aircraft, and satellites to measure water depths, look for submerged debris, and record altered shorelines in high priority areas from South Carolina to Maine, as stipulated by Congress in the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013. “Our approach is to map once, then use the data for many purposes,” said NOAA Rear Admiral Gerd Glang in a news release. “Under the Ocean and Coastal Mapping Integration Act, NOAA and its federal partners are taking a 'whole ocean' approach to get as much useful information as possible from every dollar invested to help states build more resilient coastlines.”

The data will be available to local, state, and federal agencies as well as academia and the general public. The information can be applied to updating nautical charts, removing marine debris, replenishing beaches, making repairs -- "and planning for future storms and coastal resilience," NOAA said.

Rising sea levels

 

[Stephanie]

the left wing sites are a cranking out the sky is falling propaganda fast and furious lately..

If we don't give our government control of our lives because of global warming, WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE...

Because we know they are the gods of the weather and only they can CONTROL the weather, I'm mean, US PEOPLE

 

[CrusaderFrank]

NY was hit by a hurricane in Sept 1938 that made Montauk an Island.

AGW?

Nah

It was a hurricane

 

[Abraham3]

.
Sea Levels Rising 60% Faster Than Projected, Planet Keeps Warming As Expected

Sea Level Rise Much Slower Than Predicted

Sea Level Rise Much Slower Than Predicted

A new, first-of-its-kind comprehensive scientific analysis has shown that there is little to fear from rising sea levels driven by global warming. The likelihood is that the 21st century will see rises much like those of the 20th, and even in the worst possible case sea levels in 2100 will be far below those foreseen by alarmists.&#8212;Lewis Page, The Register, 3 October 2012

Here is the conclusion of the actual study, available at Millennial total sea-level commitments projected with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM - IOPscience


6. Conclusion
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide is causing global warming and this will lead to irreversible sea-level rise on human timescales even when emissions were to reduce drastically to reach greenhouse gas stabilization in the atmosphere. Our model results indicate that a sea-level rise of at least 1.1 m by the year 3000 is already committed by the compounded effect of greenhouse gas buildup by the year 2000. Several metres more are likely unavoidable if measures to curb emissions drastically are not taken during the next few decades and greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise to the levels implied by the SRES scenarios used in this study. This outcome is directly linked to the longevity of anthropogenic CO2 and the long response timescales inherent in the ocean and the ice sheets. On the millennial timescale, the results stress the dominance of melting of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise and the relative insensitivity of the Antarctic ice sheet as long as the mean annual warming over the ice sheet does not exceed 5&#8211;6&#8201;°C. Glaciers and ice caps are found to largely disappear within centuries irrespective of further increases of radiative forcing but the total implied sea-level rise is limited to less than 30 cm in the algorithm used here. Oceanic thermal expansion is only dominant for present-day conditions and the next few centuries but is never the main contributor to committed sea-level changes by the year 3000.

The results presented here are subject to uncertainties both in climate sensitivity and aspects of the ice models. Our preferred LOVECLIM model version had a low climate sensitivity and considered medium physical parameters for the ice sheets. However, strong relations were found between selected temperature indices and committed sea-level changes for all sea-level components across all model versions and all forcing scenarios. This implies that the established relations can be used to estimate first-order sea-level commitments given estimates of spatially resolved global temperature change. These could come from other Earth system models that do not include land ice components. Uncertainties of the ice sheet projections also arise from poorly constrained physics in prescribing ice-sheet mass balance, basal sliding conditions, and the effects of oceanic erosion of ice shelves and calving fronts. Such limitations are thought to be less crucial for the Greenland ice sheet than for the Antarctic ice sheet, but were not investigated further with the current model setup.

**********************************************************************

This work also predates Balmaseda, Trenberth and Kallen 2013.

 

[Abraham3]

the left wing sites are a cranking out the sky is falling propaganda fast and furious lately..

If we don't give our government control of our lives because of global warming, WE ARE ALL GONNA DIE...

Because we know they are the gods of the weather and only they can CONTROL the weather, I'm mean, US PEOPLE

What liberties are you being asked to give up to curtail anthropogenic global warming?

 

[ScienceRocks]

wow,

http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/news/ocean-indicators/mean-sea-level/