Scott Rasmussen, the most accurate pollster in the business

[JoeNormal]

If you cast out the outlier, Obama is up by 3.5%

Of course, none of this really means much at this point in the game.

I just think it's fun to point out how much of an outlier Rasmussen is, as he is just about all the time.

I have watched polls for many years. In the last dozen years Rasmussen consistently polls 2 to 4 points in favor of the right wing in comparison with other pollsters. Not always mind you but enough to make you wonder.

Take a look at the historic polling on RCP and see if you agree.

Rasmussen takes 'strongly for' and subtracts 'strongly against' and that's their final result. Everbody in the middle is discarded. Kick ass methodology, huh?

 

[Misty]

The 4% margin of error puts them dead even. It's only because Romney is such a weak candidate.

These are actually very poor poll number for Obama. Romney is weak, Obama should be creaming him in the polls if he wasnt such a crappy President.

 

[NYcarbineer]

First you need to know how they arrived at there numbers and when voting you can't choose undecided, so this group, Martin, Traugott and Kennedy, figured a way to test real accuracy while working in the undecided factor, it is a scientific method that was used and it isn't the black and white a simpleton would see.

You do believe in science and research and progressing, correct?

No they didn't. They used the wrong final results number. Period. It's right in your post. Trying reading your own posts.

Did you Google the group? Did you see there method and how they arrived at the numbers? Of course not, you just knee jerked!

Until you address the simplest of facts, i.e., that they used the wrong final number, I aint googling anything.

I've had this argument before and you denialists always run out the same shit.

 

[NYcarbineer]

And btw, when Polls have margins of error of 2 or 3 points, i.e., when they are thus incapable of getting an election number exactly right,

any poll that hits the number exactly has done so out of pure chance.

 

[Trajan]

Your NBC and other one are on there, they are 15th and 16th.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.




Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Obama didn't win by 6.15 points. The Fordham study was wrong. Period.

I posted way more than just the fordham study, read the whole thread bucko, I cannot find a site that says ras. and pew were not the tops, can you? if you can fine, please post it.

 

[Trajan]

No they didn't. They used the wrong final results number. Period. It's right in your post. Trying reading your own posts.

Did you Google the group? Did you see there method and how they arrived at the numbers? Of course not, you just knee jerked!

Until you address the simplest of facts, i.e., that they used the wrong final number, I aint googling anything.

I've had this argument before and you denialists always run out the same shit.

..........yes, I see...I am not crazy, its the rest of the world........hack.

 

[Papageorgio]

Did you Google the group? Did you see there method and how they arrived at the numbers? Of course not, you just knee jerked!

Until you address the simplest of facts, i.e., that they used the wrong final number, I aint googling anything.

I've had this argument before and you denialists always run out the same shit.

..........yes, I see...I am not crazy, its the rest of the world........hack.

No kidding, he is not wanting to educate himself, can't help stupid.

 

[clevergirl]

Obama is toast~ Rasmussen has it about right.

 

[DiamondDave]

Rassmussen is the only pollster that screens for likely voters, over those only registered or just adults who may or may note even be registered.

But I think you already knew that.

This has been told to them over and over and over again

Not that I put much weight in small sample polls anyway... but it comes down to a different approach to the poll based on who is getting polled...

And even though I don't put a lot of weight on these pollsters... but if I am not mistaken, Rass is usually pretty close to the actual election outcome, isn't he? (legit question, because I don't really follow or track the polling agencies)

It's not true. In the current realclearpolitics poll average, there are 3 LV polls and 4 RV polls.

And nobody knows which ones are more accurate because an election poll in July for a November election can't be tested for accuracy.

I am not talking in comparison to other polls right now.. I am talking in the outcomes of previous elections and where Rass stood in comparison with his final poll and the election outcome

 

[Dot Com]

I also noticed, over the past couple years on interwebz message boards such as this, that cons consistently reference Razzy (Fox- preferred) polls

 

[Papageorgio]

I also noticed, over the past couple years on interwebz message boards such as this, that cons consistently reference Razzy (Fox- preferred) polls

My two favorite is Gallup and Rasmussen, don't know what FOX prefers, I don't watch there channel.

 

[Trajan]

I also noticed, over the past couple years on interwebz message boards such as this, that cons consistently reference Razzy (Fox- preferred) polls

My two favorite is Gallup and Rasmussen, don't know what FOX prefers, I don't watch there channel.

agreed, they are going to different some due to the sampling models/emthods, Anonymous vs. LV...somewhere in the middle between the 2 is sweet spot for our purposes.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Your NBC and other one are on there, they are 15th and 16th.

The Pew Research Center and Rasmussen Reports were the most accurate in predicting the results of the 2008 election, according to a new analysis by Fordham University political scientist Costas Panagopoulos.

The Fordham analysis ranks 23 survey research organizations on their final, national pre-election polls, as reported on pollster.com.

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.




Here is the list –

1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

6T. ARG (10/25-27)*

8T. CNN (10/30-11/1)

8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

13. FOX (11/1-2)

14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

18. Marist College (11/3)

19. CBS (10/31-11/2)

20. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

22. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

23. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Obama didn't win by 6.15 points. The Fordham study was wrong. Period.

I posted way more than just the fordham study, read the whole thread bucko, I cannot find a site that says ras. and pew were not the tops, can you? if you can fine, please post it.

I know what the real number is. Obama won by 7.3 points. CNN had him +7, as did Foxnews, and Ipsos-McClatchy.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

 

[clevergirl]

I also noticed, over the past couple years on interwebz message boards such as this, that cons consistently reference Razzy (Fox- preferred) polls

My two favorite is Gallup and Rasmussen, don't know what FOX prefers, I don't watch there channel.

agreed, they are going to different some due to the sampling models/methods, Anonymous vs. LV...somewhere in the middle between the 2 is sweet spot for our purposes.

No matter the spin any liberal poster attempts to put on these numbers- The facts are that even if we give Obama the positive 2.5 RCP lead over Romney it is within the margin of error. For an incumbent president that's not a very good place to be, especially in light of all the negatives in the following areas.
Obama Job Approval
Congressional Job Approval
Direction of Country
Latest State of Union Polls

 

[NYcarbineer]

This has been told to them over and over and over again

Not that I put much weight in small sample polls anyway... but it comes down to a different approach to the poll based on who is getting polled...

And even though I don't put a lot of weight on these pollsters... but if I am not mistaken, Rass is usually pretty close to the actual election outcome, isn't he? (legit question, because I don't really follow or track the polling agencies)

It's not true. In the current realclearpolitics poll average, there are 3 LV polls and 4 RV polls.

And nobody knows which ones are more accurate because an election poll in July for a November election can't be tested for accuracy.

I am not talking in comparison to other polls right now.. I am talking in the outcomes of previous elections and where Rass stood in comparison with his final poll and the election outcome

Every major pollster polled likely voters in their final 2008 election poll.

 

[Synthaholic]

Shouldn't the incumbent be walking away with this one considering how he has accomplished so much -- AS promised?

I mean, the fact that the SEAS stopped rising ALONE should make him unbeatable.

But yet -- he's floundering.

It takes more than 3 years to clean up 8 years of elephant dung - especially when you are getting no help.

 

[Vast LWC]

If you really wanted to know you would go to their site and search for the answer- the fact is that you don't give a flying fuck- you are already married to your position. A position based on partisan stupidity and grounded in ignorance.

They hide the answers from the public. And you can be sure as hell I'm not going to give Rasmussen any money.

 

[blackhawk]

Ladies and gentlemen for your entertainment I give you Rasmussen Derangement Syndrome from the people who have given us such classics as Bush Derangement Syndrome, Palin Derangement Syndrome, Fox Derangement Syndrome more Derangement Syndromes coming soon.

 

[Vast LWC]

they stopped what? I have no idea what you are trying to say here... the 'paragraph' you alluded too;

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on

nate silver-

In summation, none of these tracking polls are perfect, although Rasmussen -- with its large sample size and high pollster rating -- would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island. Conversely, the only one of the trackers that I consider obviously dubious is Zogby.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Tracking Poll Primer

Poll Obama McCain Spread (actual=6.5) Off by
Rasmussen Reports 52 46 6 0.5
Pew 52 46 6 0.5
GWU/Battleground 50 44 6 0.5
Ipsos/McClatchy 53 46 7 0.5
CNN/Opinion Research 53 46 7 0.5
Fox News 50 43 7 0.5
Diageo/Hotline 50 45 5 1.5
NBC News / Wall St. Journal 51 43 8 1.5
Gallup Traditional 51 43 8 1.5
IBD/TIPP 52 44 8 1.5
Marist 52 43 9 2.5
ABC News / Wash Post 53 44 9 2.5
Gallup Expanded 52 43 9 2.5
CBS News / NYT 51 42 9 2.5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 54 43 11 4.5

The table below is an assessment of pollster performance in the 2008 Presidential election. The pollsters were graded on both the accuracy of their final poll (popular vote) and the consistency of their polling during the month of October.

The overall score is a weighted average of their Accuracy and Consistency numbers. The weighting is 75% accuracy and 25% consistency. Formula details are at the bottom of this page.

Overall
Poll Score Grade Accuracy Consistency
Rasmussen Reports 91% A- 92% 86%
Ipsos/McClatchy 89% B+ 92% 79%
CNN/Opinion Research 88% B+ 92% 77%
Fox News 84% B 92% 61%
Pew 83% B- 92% 56%
GWU/Battleground 79% C+ 92% 41%
Diageo/Hotline 77% C+ 77% 79%
NBC News / Wall St. Journal 76% C 77% 75%
Gallup Traditional 73% C- 77% 63%
Marist 67% D+ 62% 82%
ABC News / Wash Post 67% D+ 62% 82%
IBD/TIPP 66% D 77% 34%
Gallup Expanded 66% D 62% 78%
CBS News / NYT 60% D- 62% 56%
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 35% F 31% 48%

2008 Intrade Vs. Actual Election Results



and-

As for polling firms, the respected Pew firm was right there with Silver, showing a 52-46 national vote breakdown in its final survey. (Though it's important to note that pollsters, unlike analysts, see their principal role as trying to reflect the electorate ahead of election day, as opposed to making predictions.) Rasmussen can also take a bow for getting the national numbers right.


BEST AND WORST LAST-MINUTE POLLS:

National:

Best: PEW and Rasmussen, noted above

Worst: Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby, 11/3: Obama 54/McCain 43

Florida:

Best: Public Policy Polling, 11/2: Obama 50/McCain 48

Worst: Fox-Rassumussen, 11/2: McCain 50/Obama 49

Ohio:

Best: CNN/TIME, 10/28: Obama 51/McCain 47

Worst: Strategic Vision, 11/2: McCain 48/Obama 46

Virginia:

Best: Fox-Rasmussen, 11/2: Obama 51/McCain 47

Worst: CNN/TIME, 10/28: Obama 53/McCain 44

Missouri:

Best: Zogby, Rasmussen and others had this race accurately tied at 49/49.

Worst: Politico/InsiderAdvantage, 10/29: McCain 50/Obama 47

Colorado:

Best: American Research Group, 10/30: Obama 52/McCain 45

Worst: YouGov/Polimetrix, 11/1: Obama 55/McCain 40

Election Poll Review: Who Got It Right?



I don't know what else to tell you.....but iti sounds to me like you have a bias. it is what it is dude.

OK, let me break this down, very simply, though I'm pretty sure you understand what I'm saying, but are intentionally pretending not to.

On election night, when the election was called, Obama was ahead by 6%.

However, all the votes had not been tallied by that point.

The polls are supposed to be a reflection of the total vote tally, not the vote tally from the point where McCain realized he had no chance.

The FINAL TALLY put Obama ahead of McCain by 7.6 %

That's 7.6, not 6.15.

Get it?

Therefore, since Rasmussen had a 6% margin, they were not even close to the polling agencies that had 8% or even 7%.

In fact, when all the votes were counted, Rasmussen was tied for 6th among the major pollsters.

Which again, places them nowhere near the "most accurate".

Now, you can keep on throwing statistics from election night, or from October 2008 all you want. But in the end, the numbers don't lie.

 

[Vast LWC]

Rasmussen is a good pollster- He is not a partisan no matter how many times you say he is. He makes money by being accurate not political.

Then why do his numbers always lean conservative?

Are you trying to say that every other polling agency is somehow "liberal-biased", and that Rasmussen is the only one who tell the truth?

DO you even realize how paranoid that sounds?