Saudi 'will step in if US quits Iraq'

[ekrem]

Saudi denies may interfere in Iraq to back Sunnis
Sat Dec 2, 2006 11:54 PM IST


http://in.today.reuters.com/news/ne...R_RTRJONC_0_India-278704-2.xml&archived=False

Denying something has nothing to mean.
Saudi Arabia said, that they are interested in a unified Iraq.
This article in Washington times was made under the premise that civil war breaks out in Iraq.
And i am in no doubt that Saudi-Arabia will intervene in Iraq in favor for Sunnites when either USA leaves or civil war breaks out or both.
Actually Saudi-Arabia will not be the only country, but i would give my money on Saudi-Arabia when it is asked which country will make its interests succeed in Middle and South Iraq.

Saudi and Iranian interests do collide not only in Iraq but in whole Mid-East.
But for Iraq the Saudis are not interested in an independent Shia state on its boarder (South-Iraq) nor Sunnites in Iraq get under the wheels by the same+Iran.
Saudis are also building a multi-billion fence on the boarder to South Iraq currently and are militarizing now for years and tighten regional cooperation with states to isolate Iran in its historical geography and influence zone, as the USA - how cynical - boosted Iran's presence out of its Shiite historical geography into Arab influence zone.

 

[glockmail]

Yes I'd agree on that part alone the saudi's are very much about self and keeping a quality of life the way it is.

I'm sure that you would agree that they would stab us in the back if they could get away with it. They only thing preventing this is that we assure them this quality of life. We are basically well paid servants. They consider us a lower class of human being and find us to be detestable.

 

[Abbey Normal]

Why don't we give the libs what they really want? Put Saddam back in power, and re-open the rape rooms and torture cells. It will be like the war they voted for never happened. Woo Hoo!

 

[90K]

I'm sure that you would agree that they would stab us in the back if they could get away with it. They only thing preventing this is that we assure them this quality of life. We are basically well paid servants. They consider us a lower class of human being and find us to be detestable.

Yes Glock that is true we are the well paid infidels doing what they won't do. Can you blame them? I sure can't. Much like the UAE they don't lift a finger the natives that is and the outsiders do the work. My friend worked in Saudi for 5 years doing aircraft maintenance and had it not been for the pay he wouldn't have stayed, he said it was like being in the joint on work release. and if it weren't for oil they'd be ass deep in turmoil from the rest of the M/E.

 

[ekrem]

Yes Glock that is true we are the well paid infidels doing what they won't do. Can you blame them? I sure can't. Much like the UAE they don't lift a finger the natives that is and the outsiders do the work. My friend worked in Saudi for 5 years doing aircraft maintenance and had it not been for the pay he wouldn't have stayed, he said it was like being in the joint on work release. and if it weren't for oil they'd be ass deep in turmoil from the rest of the M/E.

It's the Oil, off course. But Saudi-Arabia has introduced laws to regularize foreign share of workers in its industry and to promote own workers in industry.
I do not know where you got your optimism from that if the USA wasn't there Saudi Arabia would not have that position it currently has.
The World is getting more and more multi-polar, others waiting to get there where USA leaves.
Saudi-Arabia is not competitive in high-quality industry, but has advantages in cost-intensive industries like Petro-chemistry. They have the coins therefore. And more and more they getting these industries established and if existing, expanded on their own by their own human ressources.
Saudi-Arabia has 26 Mio cititizens (50% under 16 year age) and will rise in 2020 to 47 Mio citizens.

The Saudi education budget is constantly rising the last years reaching 2005 19 Billion Dollars, that's 7th largest education budget in the world and one of the highest per capita.
In other words Saudi education budget reached 9% of GDP in last years.
2005 there was alone spent 3,73 billion dollars in Laboratories and computers for about 2.000 schools.
And in 2005 there was tender to build 400 new schools under BOT (build operate transfer) model.

With a population increase of 4% per year every year 250.000 new jobs have to be created and existing workless rate is 15%. And working places in Petro industry is limited, therefore Saudi kingdom is "Saudi-Arabizatiing" current workplaces replacing foreign workers with local workers.

But even this will not be enough to face the problems of Saudi-Arabian population increase. Therefore Saudi Kingdom has introduced a 624 billion Dollar investment programm and plans to eradicate workless rate to 0 % within 5 years.
In this context till 2020 are invested in these sectors:
- 140 Billion Infrastructure
- 92 Billion Petro-chemistry
- 89 Billion Electricity production and water management
- 60 Billion telecommunication
- 53 Billion Tourism
- 11 Billion Information technology
...
...
...

One of the biggest projects the Saudis currently have is
- 26 billion Dollar worth King Abdullah economic city near Jeddah
- Knowledge economic city in Medina
- Prince Abdul Aziz Economic City
- 3.700 KM of railway connecting the country
- 2,6 mio square meters big sea-port, makeing it one of the biggest in the world

Many Saudis will so find new jobs and Saudi economy gets diversified from Oil income. And extensive budgeting for education in Saudi Arabia in the last years shows that Saudi King is making serious to transform the country into the future.
In the last years even there were build high-qualificated 34 industrial training centres, 16 higher economic schools, 3 agrarindustry faculties and 5 technical Inspectors Institutes.
Saudi Arabia is aiming to educate within 3 years through these centers 300.000 high-qualification workers to make possible "Saudi-Arabaization" of Saudi workplaces in the country.

Also Saudi Arabia became on 11 December 2005 WTO member and non oil income of Saudi-Arabia is rising due to remove of customs duties to many countries.
So don't underestimate Saudi-Arabia as they are a heavy country and by "Saudi-Arabization" of the Gulf by the Gulf Cooperation Council
http://www.gcc-sg.org/index_e.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooperation_Council_for_the_Arab_States_of_the_Gulf
they will extend their influence.

Also they have constantly militarized and equipped their army with different goodies, putting them in a position to face every country in the region including Iran. Maybe in Saddam times this was different. But they have learned
For example only USA or Turkey is able to sink Saudi Navy in the region.
And Saudi Airforce flying into Iran would be no problem for them with their F-15 and now ordered Eurofighter.
72 they ordered but there are http://news.google.de/news/url?sa=t...o.uk/1/hi/business/6207846.stm&cid=1111503835
and Saudis now probably going for the French Rafaele.

I do not think that it is in Iran's interest to confront Saudi-Arabia either in Iraq or broader Mid-East, as Saudi-Arabia is in very terms superior to Iran.

P.S. the sources for the first part of this posting was the Foreign economic relations Board of Turkey
http://www.deik.org.tr/default_eng.asp

 

[90K]

Well from that post you see it s becoming more and more fashionable to fix up and use the revenue from oil and petrol to become the next Dubai. 25 years ago Dubai and all of the UAE was a dust bowl, so the Saudi's see's that and need to get with the program. And yes the US keeps up it's air force under contract. So hopefully they can reduce the unemployeement rate to 0% in five years. Highly unlikely but it looks good on paper. Interesting facts you presented I didn't know all that actually.

 

[ekrem]

Well from that post you see it s becoming more and more fashionable to fix up and use the revenue from oil and petrol to become the next Dubai. 25 years ago Dubai and all of the UAE was a dust bowl, so the Saudi's see's that and need to get with the program. And yes the US keeps up it's air force under contract. So hopefully they can reduce the unemployeement rate to 0% in five years. Highly unlikely but it looks good on paper. Interesting facts you presented I didn't know all that actually.

Saudi Arabia is in the shadow of UAE. Because UAE population and land mass is tiny that things become more visible when something is done.
Today Saudi Kingdom controls mostly only ARAMCO and SABIC, the first the biggest oil producer in the world, the second one of the biggest Petro-Chemistry firms in the world.
The rest is mainly privatized and there are many multi-billionaires in Saudi-Arabia boosting private sector with investments parallel to the Saudi King and government.

While reliance on petro-dollars is unlikely to decrease in the near future - oil exports constituted 89.5% of export revenues - non-oil exports in 2005 rose from SR16bn ($4.3bn) to SR35bn ($9.3bn) an increase of roughly 119%. This growth coupled with the continued buoyancy of oil prices led to the balance of payments surplus in current accounts almost doubling the 2004 figure of SR195bn ($52bn) to reach SR338bn ($90bn).

https://www.arabfinance.com/news/DefaultDetails.aspx?Id=5413&Type=Commentary

Small gulf states like UAE, Khatar etc. were the catalyst for these Saudi activities. As these countries influence themselves very strong and these small countries showed Saudi-Arabia the way to go.

The six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)-Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates (UAE)-have laid out a path to a common market by 2007 and monetary union by 2010, based on economic convergence.

http://www.gulfinthemedia.com/index.php?m=bank_reports&id=264356&lang=en

When you make a common currency between multiple states eventual mismanage and economic failure will effect all other states and Saudi-Arabia is now going the same way as small Gulf States went, but in reliance to size of population and land mass all a bit bigger.
And for me personally i rather see a strong Saudi-Arabia controlling the Gulf States rather Iran does.

 

[90K]

Yes I had forgotten the actual land mass of Saudi against UAE and Qatar, Bahrain. good points we need to heed these economic changes and see what they are doing to better the society, since the worlds need for oil is the backbone of the success over there it is quite different in our country.

 

[akiboy]

The good thing about the U.A.E especially Dubai is that they stay away from the goddamn political mess in the region. Anyways , Dubai is practically dependant on Brits , whit skins and Asians to maintain their growth and economy. You can't compare U.A.E to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is militarily more stronger then the U.A.E and Abu Dhabi knows that. No wonder the U.A.E is concentrating only on economic growth. U.A.E military capability is practically zero. Dubai is the New York of the Middle East. Even the Saudis admit it. Riyadh or Jeddah can never achieve the growth which Dubai did. Dubai is still growing infact. Plus , there are no radical Islamist laws here unlike Saudi Arabia.



Akshay.

 

[Annie]

I thought this interesting:

http://varifrank.com/archives/2006/12/enter_the_saudi.php

Enter the Saudis

1) VP Cheney goes to Saudi Arabia.

Comment: Few people notice the significance of this since everyone is hyperventilating about the media decoy operation called the “Iraq Study Group”.

2) Out of nowhere, Saudi Ambassador to US resigns and returns home.

Comment: Unlike the western world who put people into ambassadorships as a part the long held traditional practice of political payoff, Saudi Ambassadors are members of the royal family. In their case, the Ambassador is the local representative of the King.

So why resign? Surely it wasn’t to “spend more time with the family”. Perhaps some unpleasant information came to light that roving ambassador Cheney gave to the Saudi King. One thing is sure, the King wants a different voice in Washington D.C. for some reason. A different voice means a different piece of sheet music if you ask me.

3) Saudi King announces that the ‘Arab world is ready to explode”.

Comment: Why now All of sudden? Now, after everything thats happened has happened its ready to explode? Lots of people have been predicting the rise of the ‘Arab Street’ but most of them are people who have only touched sand at a Hawaiian beach, so when the King of Saudi Arabia says “Arab Street Ready To Explode” it gets my attention.

4) Saudi Arabia announces support of Sunni Iraq.

Comment: You know, The Saudis have been so quiet in regards to Iraq, I almost forgot they were in the neighborhood. You hear more from China on Iraq than you do the Saudis. This seems very significant to me. Which makes me think that everybody has been speculating that “Israel should take out Iran”, so what if Saudi Arabia stepped up to the plate instead?

Why? Means, Motive, Opportunity.

· Saudi Arabia has a capable US trained Military – Means.
· Saudi has the funds for a large scale military operation – Means.
· Iran is Shiite, Saudi is Sunni - Motive.
· Iran and Saudi are long standing enemies - Motive.
· No one wants a nuclear armed Iran less than Saudi Arabia. – Motive
· Being invited into Iraq by Sunni leaders makes the control of Sunni Iraq part of the Saudi national self-interest. Saudi Arabia isn’t going to hesitate to say that Iran is killing people under Saudi control and then “do something”. – Opportunity.
· By stepping into Sunni Iraq, Saudi Arabia has a front line with Shiite controlled Iraq, which is rapidly becoming a proxy for Iran – Opportunity.


Stay Tuned.

Posted @ December 13, 2006 10:22 AM

 

[Adam's Apple]

Could it possibly be that there is enough brain cells left in Washington that someone came up with the idea of sic-ing(?) Saudia Arabia on Iran? My, oh, my--wouldn't that be a hoot! Hope they keep pursuing that idea.....

 

[glockmail]

Could it possibly be that there is enough brain cells left in Washington that someone came up with the idea of sic-ing(?) Saudia Arabia on Iran? My, oh, my--wouldn't that be a hoot! Hope they keep pursuing that idea.....

I don't doubt for a minute that this was the plan all along.