Saudi Arabia's Yemen Dilemma

[High_Gravity]

Saudi Arabia's Yemen Dilemma

Saudi Arabia, perpetually in fear of chaos and instability, is a leading force in the counterrevolution against the Arab Spring. As a self-identified bulwark of stability and conservatism, Riyadh wants no change in the political structures or balance of power in the Middle East and is threatened by the potential emergence of representative forms of government in its neighborhood.

This policy has been strikingly evident in its dealings with Bahrain: in February, the Saudi royal family told the country's al-Khalifa dynasty to brook no compromise with the opposition and to crush the demonstrations. Riyadh sees the possibility of Bahrain's Shiite majority population taking power as a threat that could lead to Iranian dominance -- a prospect that is wholly unacceptable to Saudi Arabia.

Yet in Yemen, Saudi Arabia has gone from supporting the rule of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh to essentially strong-arming him into coming to Riyadh for medical treatment after a bomb attack at his presidential palace earlier this month. In Saudi Arabia's eyes, Saleh's hold on power became increasingly weak and untenable after months of protests, and Riyadh realized he has become a threat to stability rather than a protector of it.

In Yemen, political actors are more numerous, autonomous, fractious, and militarized than they are in other countries on the Arabian Peninsula. Yemen cannot be stabilized by the sorts of tactics that Riyadh has used elsewhere: a small show of force, the backing of one faction over another, the raising of the specters of sectarianism and Iran's nefarious hand, or simply throwing money at the problem. Bringing order to Yemen will require Saudi Arabia to find an acceptable alternative to Saleh -- a proposition that is easier said than done.

Saudi Arabia has historically tried to keep Yemen's central government weak and its political actors divided. Saudi Arabia has historically tried to keep Yemen's central government weak and its political actors divided. The thought of a strong and united Yemen gives the Saudi royals pause: Yemen is the most populous country in the Arabian Peninsula, with 24 million people, a population that is heavily armed, tribal, and impoverished. To maintain its influence over the decades, Riyadh has cultivated discrete relationships with many of Yemen's political leaders (who serve in government) and tribal sheikhs (who form a counterweight to the central government).

Riyadh has not hesitated to punish Sana'a whenever it has expressed an independent policy. For example, during the Gulf War, when Saleh sided with Iraq's Saddam Hussein against Kuwait and the Saudi-led coalition, Saudi Arabia expelled nearly a million Yemeni migrant workers and cut off official aid to Yemen. (It did not, however, end its handouts to Yemen's tribes.) This moment marked the beginning of the unraveling of Yemen's economy, which today is in tatters. A few years later, in 1994, during Yemen's civil war, Riyadh continued to punish Saleh by supporting the secessionist socialists in southern Yemen. The Saudi leadership was not bothered by the fact that, in Wahhabi eyes, the socialists were infidels, further underscoring the pragmatic and non-ideological nature of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy.

For decades, Saudi Arabia's policy toward Yemen was set by Crown Prince Sultan, the head of the Saudi "special committee," an administrative organization that managed the Kingdom's relationship with Yemen's political and tribal actors, including the disbursement of regular monetary payments to Yemen's most prominent leaders. But over the last few years, Prince Sultan's health has deteriorated (he suffers from dementia) and the special committee has effectively stopped functioning. Saudi Arabia's policy toward Yemen is allegedly now being managed by Prince Nayef, the Saudi Minister of the Interior, whose son, Prince Muhammad, is responsible for fighting al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Prince Nayef has his favorite Yemeni players, including a number of Salafis and Islamists, as well as General Ali Muhsin, a relative of Saleh's and a contender to replace him in power.

Saudi Arabia's Yemen Dilemma | Foreign Affairs

 

[Trajan]

SA has always tried to walk a fine line. one of the most in fact imho and many in the know, overlooked incidents took place in 79....same year as...yup, the Iranian rev. which took the headlines, SA kept a lid on the Mecca issue for years......Grand Mosque Seizure - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

the SA due to the Mecca issue really opened the tap on fundamentalist funding, Wahabist Madrasah's etc. etc.

If you understand the 'why' SA undertook that funding, you will understand a great deal of why they sit on Yemen, the ME arab angst and the sunni shia issues as well.

 

[waltky]

White House presses Yemen's Saleh to resign...

White House official meets Yemen’s Saleh
July 10 : During a face-to-face meeting in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, a top Obama administration official told Yemen’s president to step aside and allow the political transition he had once approved but never ratified to move forward, according to a statement by the White House.

John O. Brennan, assistant to the president for counterterrorism and homeland security, met Ali Abdullah Saleh at a hospital in Riyadh where he is recovering from wounds suffered in an attack on the presidential compound in Sanaa, Yemen’s capital, early last month. Saleh has clung to power in the face of large-scale demonstrations in Yemen calling for his ouster and despite agreeing to sign a plan brokered by the Gulf Cooperation Council, a regional grouping of countries, that would grant him immunity from prosecution in exchange for his resignation. “During the meeting, Mr. Brennan called upon [President Saleh] to fulfill expeditiously his pledge to sign the GCC-brokered agreement for peaceful and constitutional political transition in Yemen,” the White House said in the statement.

Saleh was flown to Saudi Arabia for treatment of serious burns and shrapnel wounds after the attack on his palace, which came as forces loyal to the president and rival tribesmen were engaged in fierce street fighting in Sanaa. Since his departure, Saleh and his supporters have continued to insist that he plans to return to Yemen. And Sunday, the Yemeni president showed little sign that he would agree to cede power. In a statement carried on the Web site of the Yemeni Defense Ministry, Saleh, who has been in office since 1978, called for “a national dialogue that would include all political forces which would . . . preserve Yemen’s unity, security and stability.”

According to news reports from the region, Saleh appeared significantly more robust during the meeting with Brennan than he did during a broadcast Thursday, in which he seemed quite weak. Al-Arabiya, the pan-Arab broadcaster, reported Sunday that Saleh plans to return to Yemen next Sunday, the 33rd anniversary of his being elected president. The United States and its allies in the region view Saleh as an obstacle to restoring some stability in Yemen, and the White House statement suggested that U.S. assistance may be contingent on implementation of the GCC accord, which would begin the transfer of power and put the country on course for elections and new leadership.

Absent Saleh’s resignation, the United States and other countries fear that Yemen, the poorest country in the Arab world, will slide deeper into political chaos. And any instability will almost certainly be exploited by al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Yemen, a group that has repeatedly attempted to attack the United States. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, as the affiliate is known, attempted to blow up a Detroit-bound passenger plane in December 2009 and put parcel bombs on cargo planes destined for the United States last year. “Mr. Brennan said that the United States is working closely with Yemen’s friends and supporters in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Europe, and elsewhere to ensure that much needed assistance will flow to Yemen as soon as the GCC proposal is signed and implemented,” the statement said.

Source

 

[Iridescence]

So... yeyee white house?

 

[waltky]

No more Saudi use of cluster bombs in Yemen...

Saudi military announces end of cluster bomb use in Yemen
Dec. 19, 2016 -- The Saudi government announced Monday it would end the "limited" use of British-made cluster bombs against rebels in Yemen after weeks of denying their use.

The rebels are fighting a coalition of Arab countries led by Saudi Arabia. Britain is involved in training Saudi troops, and sources told The Guardian the British government has been aware of the British-made cluster bombs for over a month.

The Saudi government denied the allegations for weeks, saying the bombs in question are munitions left over from prior conflicts but Monday announced it would cease use of the British-made bombs. In a statement, it admitted that "there was limited use by the coalition of the U.K.-manufactured BL-755 cluster munitions in Yemen," pointing out the armaments were used to defend towns under assault by rebels and not deployed in civilian population centers.

Britain signed the Cluster Munitions Convention treaty in 2010, banning the use of the weapon, which leaves small bombs that can explode later and injure civilian populations. The treaty commits Britain to dispose of all such weapons. Saudi Arabia is not a signatory to the treaty.

The prime minister of the rebel government in Sanaa, Yemen, accused the British government of war crimes last week. "They have sold cluster bombs to Saudi Arabia," Abdulaziz bin Habtour told Sky News. They know the Saudis are going to drop them on Yemen ... in Sa'adah and in Sanaa and other provinces. I don't think they are guilty of war crimes, I believe so. They are participating in the bombing of Yemen people." The United States scrapped a plan last week to sell precision-guided munitions to Saudi Arabia last week.

Saudi military announces end of cluster bomb use in Yemen

 

[waltky]

Gotta take care of our proxies...

US Weighs Giving Saudis More Military Aid for Yemen Efforts
20 Apr 2017 —The United States is considering ways to boost military support for the Saudi-led fight against Iran-backed rebels in Yemen.

The United States is considering ways to boost military support for the Saudi-led fight against Iran-backed rebels in Yemen, believing military pressure is needed to prod the militants into a negotiated end to the conflict, U.S. officials said Wednesday. The U.S. already is helping the Saudis by providing intelligence and aerial refueling of their combat aircraft. But the coalition, which also includes the United Arab Emirates, has failed to defeat the rebels known as the Houthis. The rebels seized the capital, Sanaa, and much of northern Yemen in 2014.

International calls for an end to the conflict are intensifying amid rising civilian casualties. Health groups warn the Arab world's poorest country is on the brink of famine. But the Trump administration is considering how to help the Saudis advance their campaign, according to officials, who briefed reporters on condition they not be quoted by name. The assistance could involve more intelligence support but won't include a commitment of U.S. ground troops, they said, adding that any moves would reflect the administration's effort to aggressively counter what it sees as Iran's malign influence across the region.

U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis meets with Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammed bin Salman and his delegation in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia​

Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who met King Salman and other top Saudi officials Tuesday and Wednesday, has complained about Iran sending missiles to the Houthis, who've then used them to fire across the Yemen's border into Saudi Arabia. "Everywhere you look, if there's trouble in the region, you find Iran," Mattis said after his meetings Wednesday. "So right now what we're seeing is the nations in the region and others elsewhere trying to checkmate Iran and the amount of disruption and instability they can cause." In Washington, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson echoed the assessment.

A day after certifying that Iran was upholding last year's nuclear accord, Tillerson outlined the litany of American complaints about Tehran: its alliance with Syrian President Bashar Assad, support for Iraqi militant groups, threats to freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf, cyberattacks against the U.S. and backing for groups threatening Israel's security. On Yemen, he said Iran is helping the Houthis' "attempted overthrow of the government by providing military equipment, funding and training." He said interdictions of weapons shipments have revealed a "complex Iranian network to arm and equip the Houthis." Before visiting Riyadh, Mattis said the administration's goal in Yemen was to help arrange a United Nations-brokered peace negotiation.

The war has claimed the lives of more than 10,000 civilians and led to the displacement of some 3 million Yemenis. Dozens of Saudi soldiers have been killed in cross-border attacks from Yemen. Last month the U.N. special envoy for Yemen, Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed, warned that humanitarian and economic conditions were rapidly deteriorating. He urged the U.N. Security Council to pressure Yemen's government and Houthi rebels into ending the war and creating a transitional government. Speaking to the council on March 29, Ahmed said "further military escalation and humanitarian suffering will not bring the parties closer together."

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[waltky]

The Irony Of A $930 Million Donation To Help Yemen...

The Irony Of A $930 Million Donation To Help Yemen
April 4, 2018 - The U.N. has received one of the biggest donations for relief in aid history: $930 million to its Yemen Humanitarian Fund, which provides food, health care and other vital services for the conflict-ridden nation.

But there's an ethical concern. It's coming from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two countries that have helped fuel Yemen's conflict. "It's good news, but ironic that it's coming from big warring parties," says Paul Spiegel, a former senior official at the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees and a professor at Johns Hopkins University. "If they had given peace, [Yemen] wouldn't need their billion dollars." The funds from the two countries cover almost a third of the $2.96 billion required to implement the U.N.'s budget to help Yemen in 2018. An additional billion in funding was secured yesterday at a U.N. pledging conference in Geneva. The money will be disbursed to local and international aid groups in Yemen. Some in the aid sector welcome the money.

In a meeting in New York last week, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed his "deep gratitude" to Prince Mohamad Bin Salman Al Saud, Saudi Arabia's crown prince. But he went on to urge the Saudi government to protect civilians, abide by the rules of war and lift the blockade on Yemen's ports. Saudi Arabia and UAE are indeed players in Yemen's complicated civil war. The conflict began as an internal fight between rebels and Yemen's government, but escalated when Saudi Arabia intervened on behalf of Yemen's government to fight the Houthi rebels, who are backed by Iran.

Yemeni women carry blankets and lanterns distributed by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Sanaa, Yemen.​

Rights organizations like Human Rights Watch have criticized the Saudi-led military coalition, which includes the United Arab Emirates, for launching "indiscriminate and disproportionate" aerial and ground campaigns. The Saudi-led coalition has also enforced an on-again, off-again blockade to prevent aid and commercial goods from entering the country. It's for these reasons that some aid workers in Yemen say the U.N. should not accept the money. Nathanael Chouraqui is a lead Middle East researcher at Iguacu, a nonprofit that conducts research to profile charities in countries like Yemen. He has been speaking with local charity representatives about the donation.

Yahya Nasser, who works at a relief organization in Yemen, told Chouraqui, "We should not accept this money ... It's just an attempt to cover the crimes they are committing in Yemen." In her interview with Chouraqui, Amal Wahish, executive manager at Capable Youth Foundation, a small NGO in Sanaa, Yemen's capital, agrees. "This money should be rejected," she told Chouraqui. "It makes Saudi Arabia stronger — gives them a good image to the international community — and allows them to continue their work in Yemen." "The U.N. should make bigger efforts to stop the conflict," she adds. Nasser and Wahish confirmed their statements in an email to NPR. But there are differing opinions in Yemen.

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