Sabato's Crystal Ball

Annie

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Nov 22, 2003
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Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball

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...2010 was always going to be a Republican year, in the midterm tradition. It has simply been a question of degree. Several scenarios were possible, depending in large measure on whether, or how quickly, the deeply troubled American economy recovered from the Great Recession. Had Democratic hopes on economic revitalization materialized, it is easy to see how the party could have used its superior financial resources, combined with the tendency of Republicans in some districts and states to nominate ideological fringe candidates, to keep losses to the low 30s in the House and a handful in the Senate.

But conditions have deteriorated badly for Democrats over the summer. The economy appears rotten, with little chance of a substantial comeback by November 2nd. Unemployment is very high, income growth sluggish, and public confidence quite low. The Democrats’ self-proclaimed “Recovery Summer” has become a term of derision, and to most voters—fair or not—it seems that President Obama has over-promised and under-delivered.

Obama’s job approval ratings have drifted down well below 50% in most surveys. The generic ballot that asks likely voters whether they will cast ballots for Democrats or Republicans this year has moved increasingly in the GOP direction. While far less important, other controversies such as the mosque debate and immigration policy have made the climate worse for Democrats. Republican voters are raring to vote, their energy fueled by anti-Obama passion and concern over debt, spending, taxes, health care, and the size of government. Democrats are much less enthusiastic by almost every measure, and the Democratic base’s turnout will lag. Plus, Democrats have won over 50 House seats in 2006 and 2008, many of them in Republican territory, so their exposure to any sort of GOP wave is high...
 
Gallup begins to analyze how to count the 'likely voters' in coming weeks and why they and other pollsters may be underestimating changes coming:

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot

August 30, 2010

GOP Takes Unprecedented 10-Point Lead on Generic Ballot
Republicans also maintain wide gap in enthusiasm about voting
by Frank Newport

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republicans lead by 51% to 41% among registered voters in Gallup weekly tracking of 2010 congressional voting preferences. The 10-percentage-point lead is the GOP's largest so far this year and is its largest in Gallup's history of tracking the midterm generic ballot for Congress...
 
Larry Sabato has proven to be a very competent talking head when it comes to elections. His figures look about right for a mid-term.
 
That's impossible...

JokeStarkey and leftwinger say that the Democratics will retain or increase their numbers in the House and Senate...
 
Dems gotta go! Is there really anything else to discuss? Their last four years in power have been a historical awful disaster.
 

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