Sheldon
Senior Member
- Apr 2, 2010
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Manufacturing: Rustbelt recovery | The Economist
At first I was all excited...
but then I was like, oh:
At first I was all excited...
For the first time in many years, American manufacturing is doing better than the rest of the economy. Manufacturing output tumbled 15% over the course of the recession, from December 2007 to the end of June 2009. Since then it has recovered two-thirds of that drop; production is now just 5% below its peak level (see chart 1).
Factory employment has been slower to recover than output, since productivity has risen. Nonetheless, that too is growing. In February factory payrolls rose by 33,000 from January. In the past year manufacturing employment has gone up by 189,000, or 1.6%, the biggest gain since the late 1990s. Total employment rose just 1% in that period. Unemployment has fallen more sharply than the national average in Illinois, Ohio and Michigan, which are relatively dependent on manufacturing.
but then I was like, oh:
Yet the notion that jobs may flood back from abroad seems a fantasy. Caterpillar added 19,008 employees (excluding acquisitions) last year; 60% of those were overseas. Like most multinationals, Caterpillar prefers to produce where it sells. Last year sales to Asia rose 43%, and to Latin America 58%, compared with 30% for North America. As long as emerging markets are growing fastest, thats where the bulk of new manufacturing jobs are likely to go.