Russian wake up call on global warming

MOSCOW — Heavy downpours cooled the Russian capital after weeks of no rain and unprecedented heat, but dozens of wildfires still raged around Moscow on Friday and a new blaze was spotted near the country's top nuclear research center.

The city remains largely free of the clouds of suffocating smog that affected it earlier, but meteorologists say smoke from burning forests and peat bogs may choke the city over the weekend if the wind direction changes.

The Emergency Situations Ministry said its teams have managed to reduce the area covered by wildfires, but more than 500 were continuing to burn across the country, including 29 around Moscow. It said about 14,000 firefighters were battling blazes around the Russian capital.

The Associated Press: Rain refreshes Moscow, but wildfires still burning



"One issue that is being ignored in the West is that the Russian are themselves reporting that magnitude and destructive power of these fires are due to a complete collapse of forest management, i.e. the maintaing of firebreaks, the clearing of overgrowth and other debris. It is being reported that the number of forest managers, forest rangers and other forest workers have been reduced by nearly 85% over the years."

Man caused heat combined with man's poor environmental stewardship.
 
(CNN) -- Satellite photographs on NASA's website show hundreds of hot spots generated by wildfires across central and western Russia.

State media reported that the images showed 368 hot spots across Russia on Saturday. RIA Novosti quoted a spokeswoman for ScanEx, which analyzes the images, as saying that central Russia's Moscow, Ryazan and Nizhny Novgorod regions are the most affected.

Smoke clouds, which have become a serious health hazard, can clearly been seen on the satellite images, blanketing large swaths of the country.

State media reported that carbon monoxide levels in Moscow were more than six times the maximum allowable concentration, and other toxic substances permeated the city air at nine times the normal level.

Satellite images show scope of Russian wildfires - CNN.com
 
According to this NASA satellite image however more of Russia was cooler than was hotter.

There is also an nice guest article from Dr. Pielke on WUWT that addresses the probable cause of the observed warmth....and guess what? IT's NOT GW!

Pielke Sr. on Heat Wave in Russia | Watts Up With That?
 

Attachments

  • $russialsta_tmo_2010208_lrg.jpg
    $russialsta_tmo_2010208_lrg.jpg
    56.8 KB · Views: 41
Russian health experts have warned that unprecedented heat and suffocating smog from wildfires will lead to more suicides, higher alcohol abuse rates and other problems, and accused the government of failing to address the long-term health dangers.

The hottest summer since records began 130 years ago has sparked thousands of fires in Russia, mostly in the western part of the country, and smoke from wildfires around Moscow has again clouded some parts of the capital even though firefighters have scored successes in containing the blazes.

Officials have said that the scorching heat and smog have doubled the number of deaths recorded in Moscow.

The Press Association: Suicide fears amid Russia wildfires
 
As Russia chokes from a heat wave of unprecedented ferocity, president Dmitry Medvedev has strengthened his call for the world’s leaders to take action to fight global warming pollution. The scientific community has warned for decades that burning coal and oil without limit would intensify heat waves, droughts, and floods. Now that the planet is at its hottest in recorded history, freak climate disasters are arriving with increasing frequency. Some scientists are now stating the obvious: Russia’s heat wave simply would not have happened without the influence of fossil fuel pollution on our atmosphere. University of Texas climate scientist Michael Tobis is “hazarding a guess” that “the Russian heat wave of 2010 is the first disaster unequivocally attributable to anthropogenic climate change”:

But right now I feel like hazarding a guess. As far as I understand, nothing like this has happened before in Moscow. . . . The formerly remarkable heat wave of 2001, then, is “the sort of thing we’ll see more of” with global warming. But it may turn out reasonable, in the end, to say “the Russian heat wave of 2010 is the first disaster unequivocally attributable to anthropogenic climate change.”

Meteorologist Rob Carver, the Research and Development Scientist for Weather Underground, agrees. Using a statistical analysis of historical temperature records, Dr. Carver estimates that the likelihood of Moscow’s 100-degree record on July 29 is on the order of once per thousand years, or even less than once every 15,000 years — in other words, a vanishingly small probability. However, those tiny odds are based on the assumption that the long-term climate is stable, an assumption that is no longer true.

Like Dr. Tobis, Carver believes that manmade global warming has fundamentally altered weather patterns to produce the killer Russian heat wave. “Without contributions from anthropogenic climate change,” Carver said in an email interview with the Wonk Room, “I don’t think this event would have reached such extremes or even happened at all”:

Wonk Room Climate Experts Agree: Global Warming Caused Russian Heat Wave
 
As Russia chokes from a heat wave of unprecedented ferocity, president Dmitry Medvedev has strengthened his call for the world’s leaders to take action to fight global warming pollution. The scientific community has warned for decades that burning coal and oil without limit would intensify heat waves, droughts, and floods. Now that the planet is at its hottest in recorded history, freak climate disasters are arriving with increasing frequency. Some scientists are now stating the obvious: Russia’s heat wave simply would not have happened without the influence of fossil fuel pollution on our atmosphere. University of Texas climate scientist Michael Tobis is “hazarding a guess” that “the Russian heat wave of 2010 is the first disaster unequivocally attributable to anthropogenic climate change”:

But right now I feel like hazarding a guess. As far as I understand, nothing like this has happened before in Moscow. . . . The formerly remarkable heat wave of 2001, then, is “the sort of thing we’ll see more of” with global warming. But it may turn out reasonable, in the end, to say “the Russian heat wave of 2010 is the first disaster unequivocally attributable to anthropogenic climate change.”

Meteorologist Rob Carver, the Research and Development Scientist for Weather Underground, agrees. Using a statistical analysis of historical temperature records, Dr. Carver estimates that the likelihood of Moscow’s 100-degree record on July 29 is on the order of once per thousand years, or even less than once every 15,000 years — in other words, a vanishingly small probability. However, those tiny odds are based on the assumption that the long-term climate is stable, an assumption that is no longer true.

Like Dr. Tobis, Carver believes that manmade global warming has fundamentally altered weather patterns to produce the killer Russian heat wave. “Without contributions from anthropogenic climate change,” Carver said in an email interview with the Wonk Room, “I don’t think this event would have reached such extremes or even happened at all”:

Wonk Room Climate Experts Agree: Global Warming Caused Russian Heat Wave




NOAA disagrees with them.

2010 Russian Heat Wave
 
No, NOAA does not disagree with the fact that such unusual weather is predicted as part of the climate change driven by the warming. Simply, such an increase in heat cannot be solely the product of an increase of less than 1 degree C. However, that much warming can change the patterns of weather, as in a long blocking high.

We have seen many very extreme weather events this year, from Tennessee to Russia to Pakistan. All as predicted by the climatologists. And the effects on agriculture are as predicted by the climatologists.
 
No, NOAA does not disagree with the fact that such unusual weather is predicted as part of the climate change driven by the warming. Simply, such an increase in heat cannot be solely the product of an increase of less than 1 degree C. However, that much warming can change the patterns of weather, as in a long blocking high.

We have seen many very extreme weather events this year, from Tennessee to Russia to Pakistan. All as predicted by the climatologists. And the effects on agriculture are as predicted by the climatologists.




All of the events you are quoting are directly attributable to the frozen jetstream. And yes when you predict it is going to be hot or cold or wet or dry it's pretty easy to claim your predictions were correct.
 
Oh yes, Walleyes, play stupid. The prediction is for more weather events that will severly impact agriculture. And that is what we are seeing, and will see more of in the future.

A changing climate means unusual events such as the blocking high. Such as the now twice repeated flooding in Tennessee. Such as the devastating floods in Pakistan. And China.

A 5% to 10% loss of grain crops in Western Europe. 20% to 30% in Eastern Europe. Possibly 70% or more in Pakistan. And China doesn't give out it's losses. Serious business in a world with nearly 7 billion people.
 
Russia's top agriculture official says Moscow may extend its ban on grain exports until next July. According to the Associated Press, RIA Novosti news agency quoted Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov as saying Friday that the resumption of exports is "not feasible."

Global wheat prices skyrocketed after Russia announced the ban in August following the hottest summer on record and fires that devastated the country. Zubkov says this year's harvest won't exceed 66 million tons, below the country's annual need of 77 million tons.

Wisconsin Ag Connection - National/World News - Russia May Not Resume Grain Exports Until Next Summer
 
Russia's top agriculture official says Moscow may extend its ban on grain exports until next July. According to the Associated Press, RIA Novosti news agency quoted Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov as saying Friday that the resumption of exports is "not feasible."

Global wheat prices skyrocketed after Russia announced the ban in August following the hottest summer on record and fires that devastated the country. Zubkov says this year's harvest won't exceed 66 million tons, below the country's annual need of 77 million tons.

Wisconsin Ag Connection - National/World News - Russia May Not Resume Grain Exports Until Next Summer





And the grain shortfall is nothing compared to what was happening in the 1920's when grain prices reached the equivalent of 20 dollars a bushel. This little blurp (and yes that's exactly what it was) moved the price up to 7.39 for Hard Red Wheat for a brief period of time. The graph is from the USDA and as you can see predicted cost for next year is less than a dollar more then this years.

Oh my gosh we must PANIC!

Wheat: Planted acreage, harvested acreage, production, yield, and farm price - USDA/ERS
 
Last edited:
Russia's top agriculture official says Moscow may extend its ban on grain exports until next July. According to the Associated Press, RIA Novosti news agency quoted Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov as saying Friday that the resumption of exports is "not feasible."

Global wheat prices skyrocketed after Russia announced the ban in August following the hottest summer on record and fires that devastated the country. Zubkov says this year's harvest won't exceed 66 million tons, below the country's annual need of 77 million tons.

Wisconsin Ag Connection - National/World News - Russia May Not Resume Grain Exports Until Next Summer



And the grain shortfall is nothing compared to what was happening in the 1920's when grain prices reached the equivalent of 20 dollars a bushel. This little blurp (and yes that's exactly what it was) moved the price up to 7.39 for Hard Red Wheat for a brief period of time. The graph is from the USDA and as you can see predicted cost for next year is less than a dollar more then this years.

Oh my gosh we must PANIC!

Wheat: Planted acreage, harvested acreage, production, yield, and farm price - USDA/ERS

It sucks being wrong doesn't it? It requires you to change the subject entirely.

The hottest summer ever recorded in Russia causes horrendous drought and fires.

1920 has nothing to do with what happened this summer.
 
Russia's top agriculture official says Moscow may extend its ban on grain exports until next July. According to the Associated Press, RIA Novosti news agency quoted Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov as saying Friday that the resumption of exports is "not feasible."

Global wheat prices skyrocketed after Russia announced the ban in August following the hottest summer on record and fires that devastated the country. Zubkov says this year's harvest won't exceed 66 million tons, below the country's annual need of 77 million tons.

Wisconsin Ag Connection - National/World News - Russia May Not Resume Grain Exports Until Next Summer



And the grain shortfall is nothing compared to what was happening in the 1920's when grain prices reached the equivalent of 20 dollars a bushel. This little blurp (and yes that's exactly what it was) moved the price up to 7.39 for Hard Red Wheat for a brief period of time. The graph is from the USDA and as you can see predicted cost for next year is less than a dollar more then this years.

Oh my gosh we must PANIC!

Wheat: Planted acreage, harvested acreage, production, yield, and farm price - USDA/ERS

It sucks being wrong doesn't it? It requires you to change the subject entirely.

The hottest summer ever recorded in Russia causes horrendous drought and fires.

1920 has nothing to do with what happened this summer.



No it didn't. The Russians themselves blame an 85% drop in funding for forest managment as the proximal cause for the uncontrolled fires. Putin has had to defend himself for pushing through regulations that took firefighting equipment away from the most fire prone areas. That was three years prior to the firestorms. Had the normal firefighting equipment been available the fires most likely would not have developed as they did.

If you would actually do alittle research instead of relying on completely biased sources you might learn something. But as you are not interested in facts you will of course not bother.

And it was YOU and olfraud who are trying to panic the natives with high wheat prices, which when you look beyond the normal hyperbolic nonsense you two ascribe to, is really not that bad and compared to past events is quite simply a non event.

Congrats with proving my point yet again! :razz:
 
And the grain shortfall is nothing compared to what was happening in the 1920's when grain prices reached the equivalent of 20 dollars a bushel. This little blurp (and yes that's exactly what it was) moved the price up to 7.39 for Hard Red Wheat for a brief period of time. The graph is from the USDA and as you can see predicted cost for next year is less than a dollar more then this years.

Oh my gosh we must PANIC!

Wheat: Planted acreage, harvested acreage, production, yield, and farm price - USDA/ERS

It sucks being wrong doesn't it? It requires you to change the subject entirely.

The hottest summer ever recorded in Russia causes horrendous drought and fires.

1920 has nothing to do with what happened this summer.



No it didn't. The Russians themselves blame an 85% drop in funding for forest managment as the proximal cause for the uncontrolled fires. Putin has had to defend himself for pushing through regulations that took firefighting equipment away from the most fire prone areas. That was three years prior to the firestorms. Had the normal firefighting equipment been available the fires most likely would not have developed as they did.

If you would actually do alittle research instead of relying on completely biased sources you might learn something. But as you are not interested in facts you will of course not bother.

And it was YOU and olfraud who are trying to panic the natives with high wheat prices, which when you look beyond the normal hyperbolic nonsense you two ascribe to, is really not that bad and compared to past events is quite simply a non event.

Congrats with proving my point yet again! :razz:

Funding for forest management!!!

Ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha!!!!

You are the funniest poster here!
 
It sucks being wrong doesn't it? It requires you to change the subject entirely.

The hottest summer ever recorded in Russia causes horrendous drought and fires.

1920 has nothing to do with what happened this summer.



No it didn't. The Russians themselves blame an 85% drop in funding for forest managment as the proximal cause for the uncontrolled fires. Putin has had to defend himself for pushing through regulations that took firefighting equipment away from the most fire prone areas. That was three years prior to the firestorms. Had the normal firefighting equipment been available the fires most likely would not have developed as they did.

If you would actually do alittle research instead of relying on completely biased sources you might learn something. But as you are not interested in facts you will of course not bother.

And it was YOU and olfraud who are trying to panic the natives with high wheat prices, which when you look beyond the normal hyperbolic nonsense you two ascribe to, is really not that bad and compared to past events is quite simply a non event.

Congrats with proving my point yet again! :razz:

Funding for forest management!!!

Ha,ha,ha,ha,ha,ha!!!!

You are the funniest poster here!





Oh, I don't hold a candle to you Chrissy. Not even close!

And yes funding for forest management was a concern LONG before the firestorms of this summer. But clearly you're too smart to realise that...or do simple research to find out for yourself. So here you go. I've done a little bit of a look see for you so you don't tax your limited research abilities. I understand how difficult it can be to expand your horizons past the 5 or 6 favourites on your computer.


http://www.taigarescue.org/_v3/files/pdf/99.pdf
 
Forest management, paint on weather stations, tarmac, the list of excuses never ends!!!

You are just a shill for the American Petroleum Institute.

No one could be this dumb.
 
Forest management, paint on weather stations, tarmac, the list of excuses never ends!!!

You are just a shill for the American Petroleum Institute.

No one could be this dumb.



Chris would having a temperature station near cement, while the rest of the area is within a grassy area for miles around mean that station is getting higher temperatures then the avg? If it's getting higher temperatures then, why do you think it's a good measure???
 
Last edited:
Forest management, paint on weather stations, tarmac, the list of excuses never ends!!!

You are just a shill for the American Petroleum Institute.

No one could be this dumb.




And you're a shill for Goldman Sachs and the Wall Street thieves who have been robbing us blind for decades. At least the oil companies provide us with a critical commodity. You Wall Street pricks just rip us off.
 
Really dude, you are cracking me up.

Paint on weather stations, forest management, tarmacs, you're killing me.

The fucking pole is melting, and it ain't from forest management or paint on weather stations.
 

New Topics

Forum List

Back
Top