Russia will go for land bridge to Crimea

If the cease fire fails we have three options:

1. Play around with diplomatic games till Putin has all of Eastern Ukraine, and more.
2. Sell Ukraine arms and train their forces, so that Russia will have to put more into the conflict. It would give Putin a bloody nose, for sure.
3. Begin giving weapons, and advanced hardware to Ukraine to use against Russia, and authorize NATO bombing of the rebels.

Whatever happens Ukraine is like the Korean war, with Russia backing the East and the West backing West Ukraine.

We can back down and accept Eastern Ukraine will be part of Russia, or we can fund and support West Ukraine.

Though Putin will still hold Crimea, and not give up what he already has, as Russia has too strong a presence in East Ukraine to be defeated.
I think we would both agree the current ceasefire and #1 are about the same right now. I don't think we even need #3. I would say if Putin goes through Mariupol and comes out the other side he gets #3. I think if we put firm commitment behind #2 that should be enough to stop Putin, and ramp up #3 in the background. Train the Ukrainians with anti-tank and precision artillery or the like and line everyone and everything up just north of Mariupol. Give the Ukrainians a just-in-time supply of ammo, like max three day supply. That way Ukrainians can fire constantly but as soon as the firing stops they don't have stockpiles of ammo laying around. Oh, and sniper rifles. Nothing brings a front line to a stand still like sniper rifles these days. NRA was giving away a 50 cal at their last annual meeting.
 
Commander of U.S. Army Europe Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges' comments regarding arming the Ukrainians.
US Commander Arming Ukraine Increases Pressure on Putin - ABC News
BERLIN — Mar 3, 2015, 3:44 PM ET By DAVID RISING Associated Press
Hodges did not specify what weapons could be offered, but said that what Ukraine wants "is intelligence, counter fire capability and something that can stop a Russian tank."

"If you don't have something that gives muscle to the diplomacy, to the economic aspect, then it's not going to be as effective," he said.​

The mission is very compact. Exactly where and what is pretty much known, on the north side of Mariupol bring the rebel advance to a standstill. Everything strategically and tactically should be tailored around that end. Of course every plan survives until contact with the enemy.
 
There were battles, then it went quiet, and now there is a rustling in the bushes. Three separate lines of Russian propaganda has also just shown up in online articles. If the West waits much longer training will be done under combat conditions. The West must supply arms now.

Ukrainian army repels militant attacks near Mariupol UNIAN news
06.03.2015 | 13:02
"On March 5, at 1945, 2015 and 2040 the Ukrainian armed forces recorded drones over the eastern outskirts of Mariupol,” he said.

“Later, at 2138, the militants began storming the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces in the village of Shyrokyne. A grouping of DPR militants, consisting of 20 people, started to storm [Ukrainian positions] with small arms. The attack was repelled.”

"At 2145 the militants fired grenade launchers and small arms on the positions of the Ukrainian armed forces in the village of Shyrokyne. The shelling lasted until morning," Sushynskiy said.

"There were no casualties among the personnel of the Ukrainian army. The situation is under control," he added.
Ukrainian military says Russian-backed militants attacked their positions 14 times - watch on - uatoday.tv
Geopolitics11:27 Mar. 6, 2015
(has video)
Russian-backed militants attacked Ukrainian positions in east Ukraine 14 times overnight Thursday according to Ukraine's military spokesman.

The towns of Adivka and Pisky were among those under fire, as was Shirokine, which lies close to the strategically important city of Mariupol. Mariupol is currently under government control but is believed to be a key target for the Russian-backed militants.

Ukraine says its forces fired back only in defense when civilian lives were threatened.
Ukraine has to step up preparations to defend Mariupol Artemivsk and Shchastya expert
Politics Friday 06 march, 2015, 15:27
Ukraine has to step up preparations to defend Mariupol, Artemivsk and Shchastya – expert​

According to Ukraine intelligence, Russian and rebel troops are sending reconnaissance groups to Mariupol, Artemivsk and Shchastya to gauge our defenses, expert Dmytro Snehiryov says, ZIK reports March 6.​
 
Putin is running out of time very quickly to make his move if he is going to. Putin is not going to attack Mariupol because the West arms the Ukraine but he will attack Mariupol if the West does not arm the Ukrainians. Putin is a creative guy, he will think up some excuse. Those steel mills are looking pretty tasty to Putin right about now. Have to let him know he is going to get his fingers slapped if he reaches for them.

Russia can t afford to pay state employees - Business Insider
Tomas Hirst. Mar. 6, 2015, 4:53 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed three new decrees into law that will slash government salaries — including his own and that of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev — by 10% from 1 May.

The government has also announced plans to cut the number of government officials by 5% to 20%.

...

Putin is unlikely to be fazed by the erosion of his take-home pay. As he told members of the press during his annual Q&A session in December:

"Frankly, I don't even know my own salary — they just give it to me, and I put it away in my account."

Others in his administration, however, may be less sanguine about the cuts. Especially as they could represent the beginning of a wider programme to scale back the country's public-sector workforce in response to the country's economic woes.

The news comes a week after Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov asked parliament to approve spending 3.2 trillion rubles (£34 billion, $51 billion) from the Reserve Fund, one of Russia's sovereign wealth funds, as part of his so-called anti-crisis plan. That figure is more than half of the value of the fund and well in excess of the 500 billion rubles that the government had initially planned to draw down.


 
These reports are just in and are not confirmed but something to keep an eye on.

Ukraine Accuses Rebels of Using Heavy Arms near Mariupol Naharnet
Naharnet Newsdesk. March 9, 2015
Ukraine accused pro-Russian separatists Monday of using mortars and a tank to fire on government positions near the eastern port of Mariupol in clashes that lasted several hours, violating a nearly month old ceasefire.

The militants had fired on Ukraine's positions and were attempting to "force our contingents from Shyrokyne," a village about 10 kilometers east of Mariupol on the Azov Sea coast, the headquarters of the army's operations in the east said in a Facebook post.

Mariupol, a steel-making city of 500,000, is the biggest urban center in the conflict zone still controlled by Kiev. The frontline runs through Shyrokyne.

"Starting at 10:00 am (0800 GMT), the militants began to brazenly violate the Minsk accords, firing from 120-millimeter mortars and a tank at Ukrainian forces," said Oleg Sushinsky, a military spokesman in Mariupol, referring to the ceasefire signed in the Belarussian capital Minsk.​
 
This is an assessment from Dmytro Tymchuk about what the rebels have to attack Mariupol with. I found what I could about Tymchuk to see if he is respectable. He seems to be honest and pretty reliable. His numbers are precise so either he is posturing that he knows more than he does or he has gathered some fairly accurate intelligence. I am guessing the latter.

About 2 500 militants massing near Mariupol says Ukrainian military analyst Dmytro Tymchuk - read on - uatoday.tv
14:44 Mar. 10, 2015
UNIAN: Around 2,500 Russian-backed militant fighters are massing to the north and north-west of Novoazovsk, near the Ukrainian-held port city of Mariupol, head of the Information Resistance group Dmytro Tymchuk wrote on his page on Facebook on Tuesday.

According to Tymchuk, part of the forces and resources of this group of fighters is involved in the fighting along the Pavlopol-Shyrokyne section of the front line, with the rest operating in the area from Zaychenko to Zhovtneve.

"The group consists of 2,500 people, divided into several tactical groups of mixed composition (local rebels and Russian mercenaries), having at its disposal 25 tanks and 18-20 armored fighting vehicles, up to 60 units of army vehicles, more than 20 MT-LB and other tractors, and all sorts of converted all-terrain vehicles (primarily operated by mobile mortar teams)," Tymchuk wrote.

He also said that the strike group of the militants near Mariupol has been reinforced by military equipment and manpower coming from the north through Telmanovo, and directly across the border from Russia in the area of Maksymovo (with reports that 10-12 armored vehicles pass through Novoazovsk and Bezimenne every day).

"This strike group is being supported by an artillery group, which has 14 multiple rocket launcher units and around 32-36 artillery guns and self-propelled artillery cannons, as well as a large number of mortars. The artillery group primarily operates in separate firing units, but is managed from a single command center," Tymchuk said.​
 
DT 10799626
Obama gave Vlad Crimea...why not give him the bridge for dessert.

Obama never owned or possessed Crimea. Crimeans owned Crimea and when constitutional law broke down in Kiev Crimeans took the opportunity to break away from the right wing mess in the rest of Ukraine.
 
I also wanted to post this just in case people thought that all was going well with the ceasefire and everyone is cooperating. The separatists are not letting the OSCE enter any of the territory under their control. So from an official statement of what is going on north of Mariupol we are not going to get one because we are completely blind.

Separatists deny OSCE monitors access to hotspots in Russia s war against Ukraine
Stefan Huijboom. March 10, 2015, 5:19 p.m.
However, the special monitoring mission of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe are still unable to monitor any heavy artillery withdrawal in the separatist-controlled areas near the Ukrainian-held Azov Sea port city of Mariupol. Many Ukrainians fear that the city of 500,000 people is the next target for Russian forces in Russian President Vladimir Putin's drive to create a land bridge between Russia and Kremlin-occupied Crimea.​
 
(Not that I am superstitious but 666 views on this thread.)

In Newsweek so reputable source although nothing for sure until all heck breaks loose.

http://www.newsweek.com/kiev-troops-report-separatist-advances-ukraine-despite-ceasefire-312649
By Damien Sharkov 3/10/15 at 11:13 AM
Pro-Russian rebels are preparing an advance “on all fronts” in Ukraine’s eastern territories by the end of this week, according to purported conversations between rebels, which were reportedly intercepted by Kiev-loyal forces.

A statement on Facebook by the pro-Ukrainian Azov volunteer battalion, said that rebels are planning a possible attack on the town of Lysychansk, situated northwest of the rebel-held city of Luhansk, as well as pushes “in other directions” after today.

The press secretary of the Azov battalion Vladislav Seleznev, told Ukrainian news publication Ukrainskaya Pravda his colleagues were currently working to verify the intercepted information.

While the initial statement by the Azov battalion cites the timeframe for the planned attack as “after 10th March,” Seleznev clarified that the rebels were debating an exact date between 10th and 15th March, meaning an advance could happen before the end of the week.

...​
 
Just a little post I put together as an update:

Azov battalion Mariupol preparing defenses against attack from sea UNIAN news
11.03.2015 | 18:27
Earlier, the Director of U.S. National Intelligence James Clapper said he assumed there is a possibility of militant attack on Mariupol this spring.
http://www.unian.info/war/1054257-a...eparing-defenses-against-attack-from-sea.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-11/u-s-says-russia-sent-new-arms-to-ukraine-separatists
Kateryna Choursina and Brendan Murray. March 11, 2015 6:55 AM EDT
U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration pledged to send equipment including Raven tactical reconnaissance drones, 30 armored Humvees, as many as 200 standard Humvees and counter-mortar radars, said a Pentagon official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the deal hasn’t been announced. The equipment will ship in the next several weeks.
Mariupol defense Ukrainian army prepares for seaborne assault - Sea of Azov Russian Army Mariupol defense shoot out Russia terrorism Ukraine Russian Aggression Against Ukraine Russia s attack at Mariupol Mariupol defense 11.03.15 14 57 News EN.Censor.net
11.03.15 14:57
Two positions suitable for amphibious assault have been identified on the coast near Mariupol, the Donetsk region. Reconnaissance operations are being carried out with corresponding military experts working at the spots.
Mariupol under growing Russian threat - Tymchuk -Euromaidan Press
2015/03/11
“The most tense situation is in the seaside direction (Mariupol) near the village of Shyrokino, where for the past 24 hours the terrorists have been mounting an assault using mortars and armored vehicles. Similar activities of Russian-terrorist forces have been noted near the towns of Avdiivka, Tonenke, Sokolnyky, Pisky and several other towns and villages,” IR coordinator Dmytro Tymchuk wrote in Facebook.

A concentration of Russian artillery forces has been observed in the direction of Mariupol near Bezimenne — 16 multiple launch rocket systems, 28 self-propelled howitzers ( of which at least 12 are the 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika and the 152-mm 2S3 Akatsiya howitzers). Several columns of transport and armored vehicles have gone through Debaltseve, heading south to the area of Snizhne and Krasnyi Luch. They include 24 tanks, 35 armored combat vehicles, about 25 transport vehicles.

According to Tymchuk, in the area of Maiorsk the enemy has moved a group of armored vehicles, including 6 tanks, 11 armored combat vehicles supported by anti-tank artillery batteries (six 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank guns).
It would be amazing how much better our foreign policy decisions and intelligence service's reports would be if they only had Google.
 
Personally I find something like this too abstract to give much credence to. I am surprised just how many news sources report it however. Maybe there is something to it after all.

Putin Cancels Visit to Kazakhstan Because of Illness Report News The Moscow Times
Reuters. Mar. 11 2015 13:31 Last edited 14:40
President Vladimir Putin has postponed a visit to Kazakhstan, a spokesman for the Kazakh president said Wednesday.

"The meeting in Astana has been postponed," Dauren Abayev, adviser and spokesman for Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said.

He declined to give a reason for the delay to the meeting planned between the allies for this week, or say when it would now take place.

A Kazakh government source said earlier that Putin's visit had been put off possibly due to illness.

"It looks like he (Putin) has fallen ill," he said.

The Kremlin was not immediately available for comment.

The president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, had also been expected to join Putin and Nazarbayev for talks in Astana to discuss issues including economic cooperation and the conflict in Ukraine.​
 
Illarionov Terrorists will try to create a pocket around Mariupol within a week
12 march, 2015
"There will be the offensive, but I cannot say exactly when. I presume that the main attack will probably take place in several days. Probably, inaweek. It will develop at an ever-increasing rate, but large-scale military actions will probable unfold in the middle of the month. I think that the main attack will not be aimed at Mariupol, but will go around Mariupol with the purpose to seize Mariupol. It means that they will try to create a pocket around Mariupol," he said.

According to him, the situation in Donbass can only be improved by replacing the Ukrainian military command and military apparatus.

"It depends almost exclusively on the military. These steps have already been discussed more than once. I am afraid that the basic step is the replacement of the military command and the whole military management. It must not be limited to one person, but should concern the military apparatus itself. It is impossible to win with a wrong person at the head, whereas if the leader is an unexperienced but a right person, there are no guarantees, but there are chances," Illarionov stated.
Andrey Illarionov - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia
On 3 January 2005 Illarionov resigned from his position as presidential representative to the G8.[2] On 21 December 2005, Illarionov declared "This year Russia has become a different country. It is no longer a democratic country. It is no longer a free country". The Washington Post reported that he had cited a recent report by the U.S.-based and government sponsored Freedom House.[3] On 27 December 2005, Illarionov offered his resignation in protest against the government course, saying that Russia was no longer politically free, but run by an authoritarian elite. "It is one thing to work in a country that is partly free. It is another thing when the political system has changed, and the country has stopped being free and democratic," he said.​
 
Apparently no one has told the separatists that there was a ceasefire declared. If nothing else this is psychological warfare, with sniper rifles, machine guns, and mortars. As long as Ukrainian soldiers are getting fired upon the probably is higher that the separatists will launch an attack than that they will not. When countries fall to the side of authoritarian regimes rather than liberal democracies after they have asked the West for help who are we told complain when they kill their own?

Comment on the article: "When the fields dry out enough for tanks to cross, the war will start again."

Russian-backed militants shell village of Shyrokyne near Mariupol - watch on - uatoday.tv
Дмитрий Тымчук. 09:02 Mar. 13, 2015.
Ukrainian soldiers say militants try to provoke them to fire and break Minsk ceasefire



Russian-backed militants have again broken a ceasefire by shelling a village some 25 kilometers from Mariupol.

Ukrainian soldiers say they were encircled by militants and it took two hours to leave the village of Shyrokyne. They say Russian-backed militants go on the offensive from the sea and do not follow the ceasefire deal they agreed to. Ukrainian soldiers describe how they see the OSCE monitors working in the area.

‘Kat', Ukrainian soldier: "Some five snipers are located over there. Three machine-gunners fire, militants use mortar fire. But OSCE representatives say nobody is firing here."

The shelling continues some 300 meters from this position of Ukrainian soldiers. Here soldiers are having their dinner.

"Whether they fire at us or not I can't let soldiers stay hungry."

The commander of Ukraine's 37th Battalion says the intelligence service has intercepted militant conversations. They say Chechens and Russian soldiers are now fighting in eastern Ukraine.

‘Sobol', 37th Battalion commander: "Two tanks are in Shyrokyne. Three tanks are near the village of Sahanka. And there are more groups of militants with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles".

The village of Shyrokyne is almost destroyed. Ukrainian soldiers in the village say the territory is constantly being shelled. They hide in basements and shelters and say that Russian-backed militants know all of their positions, because the militants used to be located in Shyrokyne.

Ukrainian soldiers say Russian-baked militants most likely want to provoke them to use their weapons, so that they would violate the Minsk ceasefire deal.​
 
Hitler's stated goal was a German return to its borders prior to WWI, and until the intervention by France and Britain over the Poland invasion widened the conflict, that is what was happening.

Which is, of course, why he annexed the Sudentenland and Austria before he invaded Poland, neither which were part of Germany in 1914.

Hitler often spoke of "Lebensraum," which was NOT merely returning to pre-WWI borders, but to expand into eastern Europe for living space for Germans. He viewed Slavs as sub-human.

In the post-war Weimar Republic (1919–1933) the concept and the term were features of German ultra-nationalism, and later, during the Third Reich (1933–1945), Lebensraum, was an ideological element of Nazism, which advocated Germany’s territorial expansion into Eastern Europe, justified by the need for agricultural land in order to maintain the town-and-country balance upon which depended the moral health of the German people.[2] The ideology of Nazism justified Lebensraum as a natural law, by way of which a healthy and vigorous people of superior race, possessed a mystical, inherent right to displace unhealthy and feeble peoples of inferior races; especially when the people of superior race faced overpopulation in their native territories.[3]

In practice, the Nazi policy of Lebensraum was to kill, deport, or enslave the Polish, Ukrainian, Russian, and other Slavic populations considered racially inferior to the Germans, and to repopulate said lands of Eastern Europe with Germanic people.[4][5][6] The populations of cities were to be exterminated by starvation, thus creating an agricultural surplus that would feed Germany, and thereby allow political replacement by and re-population with a German upper class. ...

Historically, the concept of a Germanic people with insufficient living space (Volk ohne Raum) predated Adolf Hitler's ideological application of Lebensraum to the national politics of Germany, in which the Nazi Party said that German territorial expansion was inevitable, because of the crisis-level overpopulation of the Weimar Republic, the smaller, post–WWI Germany designed by the Treaty of Versailles (1919); about which Hitler said: "We are overpopulated and cannot feed ourselves from our own resources".[9] Politically, Nazism proposed and justified territorial expansion as an inevitable, geopolitical necessity for Germany that would resolve overpopulation and provide the natural resources required for the well-being of the German people.[9]

Since the 1920s, the Nazi Party had espoused and advocated the eventual necessity of expanding Germany into the territory of Russia.[10]

Lebensraum - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

Fail.

Sorry.
 
Last edited:
And still, it is none of our business, and not our problem.

Of course its our business and our problem.

Putin is directly challenging the world order that borders are inviolable. Trade and the global economy is dependent upon a stable political environment. Putin is upending this.

What we should do about it, of course, is another issue. But to blithely say it has nothing to do with us is extraordinarily naive.
 
Russia, of course, will try to take a land bridge to Crimea.

That they have not so far is quite interesting.
 
Published on Oct 3, 2015
Russian arms for Russian-backed militants. The OSCE, tasked with monitoring a ceasefire in east Ukraine, says it has for the first time seen a Russian-made mobile TOS-1 'Buratino' weapons system in militant-held areas of east Ukraine. The hardware violates the terms of a ceasfire signed earlier this year between Ukraine and the Russian proxy forces.
 

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