Russia suffers from a security deficit in relations with NATO

[Casper]

Joint efforts by Russia and the EU or Russia and NATO to mediate specific conflicts in the region could help build up mutual trust, which is the cornerstone of any partnership.

Valdai Club’s expert Dmitri Trenin answers on most daring question:

“Do you see Russia as a full member of the North Atlantic alliance in the medium term?”

No, I don’t. And there are two important reasons why I don’t. First, I do not expect Russia to join NATO, and second, I do not support this idea because Russia’s accession to the alliance would fuel tensions. These tensions won’t go away. They will come out at some other level.

NATO has an unofficial leader; for Russia to join NATO would mean to lose its strategic independence, which is highly important for our country. Since this is unacceptable, the inevitable haggling with the United States would continue, and this wouldn’t do anyone any good. Essentially Russia’s membership in NATO would turn the alliance into another OSCE with the same format of peaceful coexistence.

China would also be a problem, because Russia’s membership in NATO would seem to the Chinese like encirclement. This would inevitably cause tension in Russia-China relations, the last thing Russia needs, considering that the alliance would not be willing or able to protect the Russian-Chinese border. By joining NATO, Russia would be on a potential collision course with China, something Russia wouldn’t want to risk.

To summarize, Russia:
a) must maintain its strategic independence in any and all partnerships, be it with NATO or other partners;
b) must not turn NATO into another OSCE; and
c) shouldn’t provoke China.


Full version of his interview was published on valdaiclub.com

 

[waltky]

Don't count the Russian bear out quite yet...

With Russia's $650 billion rearmament plan, the bear sharpens its teeth
February 28, 2011 - If Russia can reduce reliance on its aging Soviet-era nuclear missile deterrent, analysts say it could create a 'whole new ball game.'

The graying bear is getting a make-over. Russia's military is launching its biggest rearmament effort since Soviet times, including a $650 billion program to procure 1,000 new helicopters, 600 combat planes, 100 warships, and 8 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines. Analysts say Russia, while already the world's fifth-largest military spender, needs strong conventional forces to reduce its overreliance on its aging Soviet-era nuclear missile deterrent. Valentin Rudenko, director of the independent Interfax-Military News Agency, says it could create "a whole new ballgame."

"For about two decades we've had no real modernization, at least not like what's being proposed now," he says. "Russia will finally have a modern, top-level armed forces that are capable of protecting the country." Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Popovkin last week announced the unprecedented new outlays, which will see a massive re-equipping of Russia's strategic nuclear deterrent as well as its conventional forces. The Defense Ministry today said the "modernization drive" will begin this year with the deployment of new generations of air defense and antimissile weapons by Russian ground forces.

The impressive shopping spree comes on the heels of a painful military reform that severely downsized Russia's conscript Army, eliminating 9 out of 10 Soviet-era units and cutting 200,000 officers. The goal now, experts say, is to equip Russia's new lean-and-mean, largely professional armed forces to face 21st-century threats. These are mainly considered to be regional conflicts such as the brief 2008 Russo-Georgian war, which highlighted military shortcomings.

Skepticism over spending

 

[Ropey]

Conventional forces spending is a good thing for Russia. They see the need for conventional arms in their arena.

They are so far behind the curve in nuclear deterrents that I doubt America will feel worried on this account.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

Russia is currently controlled by conniving corrupt Ex-KGB cretins. They cannot be trusted as long as this is the case. Someday things will change in Russia though. Once the old corrupt Ex-KGB cretins die off,Russia will be reborn. That time is still a long way off though. It would be a big mistake trusting anything Russia says or does at this point. One day this will change but that day isn't here yet.