Ruh oh, What does Dr Doom Predict Next?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by California Girl, Jan 29, 2012.

  1. California Girl
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    Those who pay attention to the world outside our borders – and we really should since it impacts on us – will be aware that there was recently a World Economics Forum in Darvos, Switzerland.

    Attending said Forum was Dr Nouriel Roubini (world famous Economist), nicknamed Dr Doom for his dire predictions prior to those predictions becoming reality around the world. Smart, smart, smart man. Nowadays, governments around the world listen to him… because he’s been right about so much shit hitting so many fans. I should, perhaps, mention that Dr Roubini is a Professor of Economics and International Business at NY University.

    Now, I can’t provide you with a link to some crap media report about what he said at the forum… mainly because the media are either ignoring it or pandering to whatever political agenda best suits their reporting.

    But…. What did he say? And who the hell is gonna listen? I can answer – in part – the first question ... He said:

    The biggest coming issue is a potential conflict between the US (with Israel) and Iran. He predicts that conflict may lead to oil prices rocketing to $150 per barrel. That would, in turn, lead to another global recession.

    He said both the US and Europe needs to radically reform to stop its debt mountain, otherwise the world economy will not recover and both will continue to see their standard of living fall. He is very pessimistic about both the EU and US taking the steps necessary to push themselves into a strong recovery.

    He – and the IMF – say that the global economy is getting weaker… and they predict only 3.0-3.3% growth in the coming year. His prediction for US growth is between 1.7-1.8%.... and predicts that unemployment will remain high.

    He mentioned issues with China becoming less stable because of its over reliance on foreign markets, and under-consumption (I have mentioned that one several times on the forum).

    He talked about how too much debt in both the public and private sectors may take up to a decade to restablize.

    In short, we need to clean up our balance sheet – as a nation and invest in the things that will make us more productive in the future.

    So what did he suggest that nations do? Clean up our debt, and shift our investments from the ‘quick profit’ sectors such as finance and real estate to investing in our human capital (people), our structure, technology and innovation.

    I think he’s right. We are America – a nation of innovators, entrepreneurs, and optimism.

    Next question…. Who is listening to Dr Doom?

    I don’t know…. But I really hope that Obama…. And whoever is next in line – are paying close attention in class.
     
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  2. California Girl
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    Oh... I'll make a prediction of my own.... no one will want to discuss this... and those who do reply will 'blame' Bush, the Republicans, the right, the wealthy, yadda, yadda, yadda.
     
  3. RetiredGySgt
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    RetiredGySgt Platinum Member

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    Obama is NOT listening. He wants the budgets to stay like they are or grow, ANYTIME he talks of balancing the budget or paying down the debt it is always AFTER he is out of his second term. And the Dems are in lock step with him.

    I don't see Romney doing much about the Budget either, he will spend just as bad. We need to clean out the cronies in the Congress and get a new slate in that will force the President, whom ever he is to cut spending.

    That means conservatives that really are conservative. And I don't see that happening either. To many people want their dole. No one wants cuts except to play lip service to the idea.
     
  4. California Girl
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    I agree about Obama. But not about Romney. I think Romney knows the kind of crap we're in. But I think, if he became our next President, that he would address the debt... possibly not quickly but a President needs to take this debt thing seriously, but not panic the country, and balance the necessary cuts with not increasing the unemployment.

    The hard fact that we must face - ok, not a 'fact' as such - but a very educated opinion... is that we will not see a 'V' recovery like we expect to see.... but it will be a 'U' recovery... the question is, have we hit the bottom of the curve or not?
     
  5. DSGE
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    We're not seeing a V shaped recovery because monetary policy is too tight. There are many parallels between the current situation and the Depression, the most important yet widely ignored one being that it's caused by falling nominal spending. It's infuriating when people look at interest rates or the monetary base and say "money is the loosest it's ever been". It's slightly more infuriating when people think fiscal stimulus is necessary. The Fed needs to be given an explicit NGDP level target and made accountable when that target isn't met.
     
  6. Mad Scientist
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    Mad Scientist Deplorable Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    The people who meet in Davos are planning the end of Capitalism. Roubini may have a say at the conference or publish a paper or two while he's there, fine.

    But the whole point of Davos is to plan the end of capitalism and bring in world gov't. But of course, anyone who says so is a "conspiracy theorist" even thought they're doing it right out in the open.

    I know I've posted this alot, sorry. But it illustrates the futility of voting straight party and expecting them to save us.

    [​IMG]
     
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  7. California Girl
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    While I don't disagree, we do have a global marketplace. What happens in one country impacts around the world. So I don't see the 'conspiracy theory' the same way as such. But I'm certainly not saying you're wrong.
     
  8. Wry Catcher
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    Isn't this (So what did he suggest that nations do? Clean up our debt, and shift our investments from the ‘quick profit’ sectors such as finance and real estate to investing in our human capital (people), our structure, technology and innovation) what Obama has been advocating for the past three + years?

    I haven't heard anything from the other side other than "drill baby drill" and cut, cut cut (taxes, regulations and health care).
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2012
  9. California Girl
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    No, he's been pandering to specific companies without giving a shit that his 'stimulus' funding for certain companies destroyed hundreds of very small, very focused high tech companies who were trying to develop better technology.

    He panders, he does not support taking the economic steps necessary to support business.

    Oh and - congratulations on totally ignoring the real issues and trying to make this a 'high five' to your incompetent Messiah. But you failed.
     
  10. Paulie
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    Paulie Platinum Member

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    I make those same predictions myself and I have no official education on any of the topics.

    It's not hard to predict that the world is fucked right now.
     

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