Romney's Path to 270?

[nodoginnafight]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Especially when you consider he currently trails in Virginia, Ohio (losing either kills him) and in Iowa and Colorado. (the combination would kill him if he should win Ohio and Virginia).

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Without Portman I don't see Romney winning Ohio, and a recent poll showed that even picking Portman wouldn't make much of a difference.

 

[BreezeWood]

Mitt Romney's support up in Florida's presidential race, poll says | Deseret News

the Rs are presently up in Florida ...

 

[nodoginnafight]

I have to confess, that I don't have much data on how often a VP nominee swings their home state. Although considering how difficult it is for a Democrat to win in Tennessee, I have to think that Gore helped Clinton with that one. But then again, Gore couldn't even win it for himself in 2000.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Mitt Romney's support up in Florida's presidential race, poll says | Deseret News

the Rs are presently up in Florida ...

Yeah, RCP says Romney's up by 1.4 there. That's a critical piece in formula.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Without some major shifts - Romney's path is a very unforgiving one.

 

[naturegirl]

It's going to be an uphill climb, no doubt. However some of those states that have voted Dem in the past might just turn a little red.

 

[Katzndogz]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Especially when you consider he currently trails in Virginia, Ohio (losing either kills him) and in Iowa and Colorado. (the combination would kill him if he should win Ohio and Virginia).

North Carolina is firm in the Romney camp. Thinking that obama can win there is nonsense. So is Indiana. Looking at it today, so is Florida he's up there. Ohio is a coal state and grumbling because obama's energy policy intends to devastate the economy once he shuts down the mines. Democrats insist that Aizona is a swing state. That's puzzling since Zonies are pretty unified against the many lawsuits filed by the obama regime. Colorado shows distinct signs of rebelling against obama's same sex marriage proposals. Virginia is a divided state with the liberals in the north and conservatives in the south. Who wins will depend on who gets out the vote. Virginians may be inclined to give some punishment to the regime that denied aid after the earthquake.

It is still somewhat early and obama may yet make more disastrous mistakes on the order of declaring his support for same sex marriage.

 

[nodoginnafight]

It's going to be an uphill climb, no doubt. However some of those states that have voted Dem in the past might just turn a little red.

And I know that there is some optimism among Romney supporters about places like Wisconsin especially. That could pontentially open up a bit bigger window of opportunity for Romney as well.

 

[naturegirl]

It's going to be an uphill climb, no doubt. However some of those states that have voted Dem in the past might just turn a little red.

And I know that there is some optimism among Romney supporters about places like Wisconsin especially. That could pontentially open up a bit bigger window of opportunity for Romney as well.

Pennsylvania is not out of the question either.

 

[naturegirl]

Here's a link to the 2004 election map (other years are there as well). There are quite a few states that voted Dem in 2008 and voted R in 2004 and 2000.

RealClearPolitics - 2004 Electoral College Map

I'm remaining optimistic, I think much will depend on Romney's VP choice.

 

[nodoginnafight]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Especially when you consider he currently trails in Virginia, Ohio (losing either kills him) and in Iowa and Colorado. (the combination would kill him if he should win Ohio and Virginia).

North Carolina is firm in the Romney camp. Thinking that obama can win there is nonsense. So is Indiana. Looking at it today, so is Florida he's up there. Ohio is a coal state and grumbling because obama's energy policy intends to devastate the economy once he shuts down the mines. Democrats insist that Aizona is a swing state. That's puzzling since Zonies are pretty unified against the many lawsuits filed by the obama regime. Colorado shows distinct signs of rebelling against obama's same sex marriage proposals. Virginia is a divided state with the liberals in the north and conservatives in the south. Who wins will depend on who gets out the vote. Virginians may be inclined to give some punishment to the regime that denied aid after the earthquake.

It is still somewhat early and obama may yet make more disastrous mistakes on the order of declaring his support for same sex marriage.

I agree that imho North Carolina and Arizona will go Romney. I think Romney should have an edge in Florida, but neither outcome would be a "stunning upset" imho. Same with Missouri. But Obama's got that same edge in Colorado, NH, Iowa, and Ohio. He should have a slight edge but who knows. Wouldn't "stun" me to see Romney pull that out.

What might be tough is for everyone of those to go Romney's way and that's about what he needs.

Ohio is huge imho.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Here's a link to the 2004 election map (other years are there as well). There are quite a few states that voted Dem in 2008 and voted R in 2004 and 2000.

RealClearPolitics - 2004 Electoral College Map

I'm remaining optimistic, I think much will depend on Romney's VP choice.

Yes, when the R's get Ohio, Va., N.C., Florida, Missouri, Colorado they are in decent shape. But thay pretty much have to get them all. Little or no room for error.

 

[naturegirl]

Holy Cow!! Look at what happened to Carter in 1980. States that hadn't voted R for years voted for Reagan.

RealClearPolitics - 1980 Electoral College Map

 

[auditor0007]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Especially when you consider he currently trails in Virginia, Ohio (losing either kills him) and in Iowa and Colorado. (the combination would kill him if he should win Ohio and Virginia).

Bush pulled it off twice; Romney could also. The difference is that Bush never had to run against an incumbent. 2000 was an open election and in 2004, Bush was the incumbent. There is a definite statistical advantage to being the incumbent. How big that advantage is, I don't know for certain. With that in mind though, it is going to be very difficult for Romney to pull this off. He really does need a downturn in the economy. This is not to say that the economy is doing great, but Romney will need even more bad economic news to unseat Obama. The biggest problem I see for Romney is that the economy is showing some signs of improvement. That is really all Obama needs. If there are even small signs of improvement, there is a certain percentage of voters who will just prefer to stay the course.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Holy Cow!! Look at what happened to Carter in 1980. States that hadn't voted R for years voted for Reagan.

RealClearPolitics - 1980 Electoral College Map

That's true - if for some reason this suddenly turns into a very lopsided race like that one, California COULD vote Republican or Texas COULD vote Democrat. But I'm looking at this race through a more conventional lens. And I don't see Pennsylvania going R. Hasn't happened since Bush/Dukakis in 1988 and even that was only by a 2.31% margin.

 

[auditor0007]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Especially when you consider he currently trails in Virginia, Ohio (losing either kills him) and in Iowa and Colorado. (the combination would kill him if he should win Ohio and Virginia).

North Carolina is firm in the Romney camp. Thinking that obama can win there is nonsense. So is Indiana. Looking at it today, so is Florida he's up there. Ohio is a coal state and grumbling because obama's energy policy intends to devastate the economy once he shuts down the mines. Democrats insist that Aizona is a swing state. That's puzzling since Zonies are pretty unified against the many lawsuits filed by the obama regime. Colorado shows distinct signs of rebelling against obama's same sex marriage proposals. Virginia is a divided state with the liberals in the north and conservatives in the south. Who wins will depend on who gets out the vote. Virginians may be inclined to give some punishment to the regime that denied aid after the earthquake.

It is still somewhat early and obama may yet make more disastrous mistakes on the order of declaring his support for same sex marriage.

I agree that imho North Carolina and Arizona will go Romney. I think Romney should have an edge in Florida, but neither outcome would be a "stunning upset" imho. Same with Missouri. But Obama's got that same edge in Colorado, NH, Iowa, and Ohio. He should have a slight edge but who knows. Wouldn't "stun" me to see Romney pull that out.

What might be tough is for everyone of those to go Romney's way and that's about what he needs.

Ohio is huge imho.

Ohio is huge, and Obama bailing out Chrysler and GM helps him a great deal here. The other thing going against Romney in Ohio is that Governor Kasich's approval numbers are not good, although they have been improving a bit lately.

 

[naturegirl]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Especially when you consider he currently trails in Virginia, Ohio (losing either kills him) and in Iowa and Colorado. (the combination would kill him if he should win Ohio and Virginia).

Bush pulled it off twice; Romney could also. The difference is that Bush never had to run against an incumbent. 2000 was an open election and in 2004, Bush was the incumbent. There is a definite statistical advantage to being the incumbent. How big that advantage is, I don't know for certain. With that in mind though, it is going to be very difficult for Romney to pull this off. He really does need a downturn in the economy. This is not to say that the economy is doing great, but Romney will need even more bad economic news to unseat Obama. The biggest problem I see for Romney is that the economy is showing some signs of improvement. That is really all Obama needs. If there are even small signs of improvement, there is a certain percentage of voters who will just prefer to stay the course.

However, I'm looking at Carter and Obama.........Obama is not quite as popular as he was in '08. I don't think he's polling as bad as Carter, however 5 months is a long time for things to change. Obama better hope nothing major happens between now and then. If it doesn't, does Romney have the backing he needs??

 

[nodoginnafight]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Especially when you consider he currently trails in Virginia, Ohio (losing either kills him) and in Iowa and Colorado. (the combination would kill him if he should win Ohio and Virginia).

Bush pulled it off twice; Romney could also. The difference is that Bush never had to run against an incumbent. 2000 was an open election and in 2004, Bush was the incumbent. There is a definite statistical advantage to being the incumbent. How big that advantage is, I don't know for certain. With that in mind though, it is going to be very difficult for Romney to pull this off. He really does need a downturn in the economy. This is not to say that the economy is doing great, but Romney will need even more bad economic news to unseat Obama. The biggest problem I see for Romney is that the economy is showing some signs of improvement. That is really all Obama needs. If there are even small signs of improvement, there is a certain percentage of voters who will just prefer to stay the course.

A vanderbilt professor did an interesting study in which he concluded that even a modest improvment in discretionary/disposal income in the spring/early summer before the election means about 6 points for the incumbent. (maybe it goes to how people feel about their personal economic situation)

Besides that, I pretty much agree with your analysis. But there's plenty of time for game changers.

 

[nodoginnafight]

As always - things are subject to change and the landscape will undobtedly shift. But given history and the most recent state polls available, it appears that Romney is going to need to win Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and at least three out of Missouri, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, and New Hamphire.

What are his realistic chances of pulling off that kind of sweep in your opinion?

Especially when you consider he currently trails in Virginia, Ohio (losing either kills him) and in Iowa and Colorado. (the combination would kill him if he should win Ohio and Virginia).

Bush pulled it off twice; Romney could also. The difference is that Bush never had to run against an incumbent. 2000 was an open election and in 2004, Bush was the incumbent. There is a definite statistical advantage to being the incumbent. How big that advantage is, I don't know for certain. With that in mind though, it is going to be very difficult for Romney to pull this off. He really does need a downturn in the economy. This is not to say that the economy is doing great, but Romney will need even more bad economic news to unseat Obama. The biggest problem I see for Romney is that the economy is showing some signs of improvement. That is really all Obama needs. If there are even small signs of improvement, there is a certain percentage of voters who will just prefer to stay the course.

However, I'm looking at Carter and Obama.........Obama is not quite as popular as he was in '08. I don't think he's polling as bad as Carter, however 5 months is a long time for things to change. Obama better hope nothing major happens between now and then. If it doesn't, does Romney have the backing he needs??

Well right now Obama's favoribility ratings are much better than Romney's (not to mention Carter's) so I'm thinking as well - that it's gonna take a gamechanger. But there is time for that to happen.