Romney Widens Lead over Obama in Electoral College: CU Professors

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by beretta304, Oct 16, 2012.

  1. beretta304
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    beretta304 BANNED

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    The forecast of the 2012 Presidential Election by Michael Berry and Kenneth Bicker, political science professors at the University of Colorado, that was released in August has been updated with more current economic information, and the result is the same: a Romney win as the economy continues to falter.

    It takes 270 Electoral College votes to win the presidency, and Berry and Bicker are projecting that Governor Mitt Romney will win 330 of the 538 votes up for grabs in November, while President Obama will receive just 208, down from the 213 they predicted in August.

    It’s the economy. The model developed by the two professors has an uncanny track record, correctly predicting each presidential election since 1980, often with startling accuracy. In their paper originally published in August by the American Political Science Association [APSA] along with 12 other studies, it differed in its predictive “model” by looking at two essential pieces of the economic puzzle: changes in real per capita income — that is, net, after-tax, spendable income — and unemployment rates. But their model doesn't just rely on the national numbers provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which has been heavily criticized recently for its inexplicable drop in the unemployment rate while real jobs in the economy aren't even reaching maintenance levels. It relies also on state-by-state analyses of those same factors, which appear to be more reliable. As the professors note:

    In contrast to these other Electoral College models [published by the APSA], our model includes measures of change in real per capita income, as well as national and state unemployment figures.

    Accounting for both changes in personal income and unemployment provides a more robust approximation of state economic well-being and, thus, serves to model the impact of retrospective evaluations of the incumbent party's stewardship of the economy…

    The data incorporated in our model are regularly released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the US Department of Commerce and the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US Department of Labor. This gives us high-quality, predictably available data to use as the feedstock for our model.

    Romney Widens Lead over Obama in Electoral College: CU Professors
     
  2. SniperFire
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    SniperFire Senior Member

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    President Romney is America's last best hope!
     
  3. beretta304
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    All he has to do is not screw up from now until Election Day and he's in. Obama lost momentum. Romney needs to prevent him from getting his mojo back.

    Most have made up their minds, even the Independents. Those left if they haven't decided must have an issue going with Obama again or they wouldn't still be undecided.
     
  4. decker
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    decker Senior Member

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    very true sadly . also their was a PPP/Kos/SEIU poll that has romney with three point lead nationally in swing states today.

    again very depressing news to follow usa today poll having romney with big lead

    obama has to change the narrative tonight. never easy in a town hall debate.
     
  5. beretta304
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    beretta304 BANNED

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    I see nothing "sad" about Romney leading. What's "sad" is people supporting a proven failure.
     
  6. decker
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    decker Senior Member

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    well you would not as your a conservative. But as a liberal i am. Just different views that all.
     
  7. SniperFire
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    SniperFire Senior Member

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    Obama spent half a billion trying to paint Romney as a monster.

    America sees that Obama, once again, is lying to us.

    Fuck Obama.
     
  8. beretta304
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    beretta304 BANNED

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    Since you are a self professed Liberal, tell us what's so redeeming about being a Liberal and why we shouldn't be fiscally conservative with the financial mess we're in. You can't do the social engineering that you Liberals love to do without a strong economy that provides the money for your agenda.
     
  9. Richard-H
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    Richard-H Gold Member

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    If these people predicted only 213 electoral votes for Obama back in August, then they are truly out of touch with reality.
     
  10. decker
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    decker Senior Member

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    well as a liberal i have mixed view on the things. I belive in cutting the debt by a lot but not so far as you need balanced growth. i belive it not unfair to expect some of rich to pay their way . not much but enough

    i think you need cut welfare but also ensure that growth in private and public sector.

    as a liberal i belive in gay marrige and am pro choice.

    you may disagree with all these view but that just where i stand
     

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