Romney up by only 5 in MT; 9 in AZ. Very Interesting....

[candycorn]

The real clear politics poll has Romney up by +10.3 Arizona and up by +11.0 in Montana if Obama has a three or four point lead in a state the left calls it a slam dunk for Obama Romney has a double digit and the states are getting tighter.LMAO

Montana and Arizona should be slam dunks for Romney. All I'm saying is the race is getting tighter. It shows the shallowness of the support Romney has from people like you...remember: people on this board called him a "shitty choice", "windsock", "king flip-flopper", and "turd."

His unfavorability being higher than his favorables in MONTANA should emphasize that nicely.

I'm sure MT an AZ will be in Romney's column come election day but the fact that Obama is narrowing his advantage is a harbinger of doom for the Romney campaign.

No it just means that Obama got a solid convention bounce which is already starting to dry up. Look, people like Obama as a person and that means they really want to find a reason to vote for him. The problem is they are really struggling to do that and once the debates start it's only going to get worse because Romney should absolutely shred Obama. At the very least people will become far more acquainted with Romney and that is going to result in a good 4%-5% swing.

Now here's some things you have to keep in mind. Obama beat McCain in 2008 in a situation where the election happened right after the stock market collapse and people were hemorrhaging money and completely livid with the GOP. He had captured the popular imagination with promises of "hope and change". He had record breaking turnout among minorities who wanted to see the nations first POTUS who wasn't white. There was so much going on in his favor it was sick. Now he has none of those things. The economy still sucks and has shown no recovery, "hope and change" turned out to be "same old shit", and while minorities will still support him big time there won't be nearly the amount of voter enthusiasm in those demographics. Add on that the recent upheaval in the Middle East sure aint doing Obama any favors. Despite what the media would like to claim, most people I know feel Romney's comments were spot on...and I live in one of the most liberal cities in one of the most liberal states in America. What that means is there's no chance he will match his results of 2008. He can kiss an additional 3%-5% goodbye state by state on conditions alone.

Well in 2008 he won Virginia with 53%. Think he will get 53% this time? No way. He'll be lucky to pull 49% and it will probably be more like 45% - 46%.

He won Florida with only 51% despite all the things favoring him in 2008. This time it will be more like 44% - 45%.

He squeaked out Ohio with 52%. This time maybe 45%-46%.

Well with those three situations, Obama is done because at that point Romney is at 270* so Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin don't mean jack (and frankly Romney will probably win at least one of those states anyhow).

So I wouldn't get too excited about the recent polling. It's about what we would expect to see after the DNC and before the debates and the reality is that Obama's lead isn't nearly enough because Romney will gain a good 5% at minimum between now and election day.

*This is with the assumption that Romney will take North Carolina (an almost certainty) and Iowa (a strong probability)

You put some thought into it at least.
Obama has it in the bag. The sooner you accept that, the happier you'll be.

What happened to MI an PA; you guys used to talk about Romney taking them too? Hmmm Guess some people never learn.

 

[OODA_Loop]

Tell me specifically what the single best idea Romney offers you as a supposed Romney supporter.

He is less collectivist.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Montana and Arizona should be slam dunks for Romney. All I'm saying is the race is getting tighter. It shows the shallowness of the support Romney has from people like you...remember: people on this board called him a "shitty choice", "windsock", "king flip-flopper", and "turd."

His unfavorability being higher than his favorables in MONTANA should emphasize that nicely.

I'm sure MT an AZ will be in Romney's column come election day but the fact that Obama is narrowing his advantage is a harbinger of doom for the Romney campaign.

Where is he narrowing the lead he trails by double digits in both states that is not narrowing. On a personal note you can take that shallowness comment and shove it just because I am not a blind partisan who try's to spin everything in one candidates favor does not translate to shallow and you might remember people have said the exact same type of things about Obama.

if you want to talk about narrowing in a state that actually matters look at Wisconsin. It's worth note that after both the RNC and DNC Romney actually gained ground despite the DNC being last and getting the "last word bounce". Candycorn is all giddy about a 5 point Romney lead in Montana, when he should actually be terrified of the razor thin 1.4 point lead Obama has in Wisconsin. Hell even PPP(D) has Romney ahead in Wisconsin and they are about as liberally biased as an agency can get.

Furthermore, George Allen has started to pull ahead in the Virginia Senatorial election and that means that the GOP will probably re-take the Senate as well. So in reality it's looking like a GOP House, a GOP Senate, a GOP White House, and a GOP SCOTUS. Just the way it ought to be.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Wisconsin: Romney vs. Obama

1. Allen is not pulling ahead in VA; that race remains a virtual tie.

2. It looks like a Republican win for president? How can it 'look like' that when Romney is behind?

3. Wisconsin? Obama doesn't need Wisconsin. Obama can lose 90 votes from 2008 and still win. Have you forgotten?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Here's the map you should look at if you want a realistic perspective:

That's the 2004 electoral map. If Kerry would have won Ohio, he would have won the election.

If Obama wins Ohio, and he has a good lead there now, and only wins what Kerry wins, Obama wins.

In that scenario he doesn't need states like New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Virginia, or North Carolina.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

I dont belive the polls... not even when Romney is "said" to be ahead.

There is too much bullshit that Barack HUSSEIN Obama is doing that should have him down by 20 points everywhere... so I dont buy any of it.

Just one trollz opinion though.

Perhaps you're a tad out of the mainstream.

Which of our 57 states do you consider safe for Romney?

 

[buckeye45_73]

The real clear politics poll has Romney up by +10.3 Arizona and up by +11.0 in Montana if Obama has a three or four point lead in a state the left calls it a slam dunk for Obama Romney has a double digit and the states are getting tighter.LMAO

Montana and Arizona should be slam dunks for Romney. All I'm saying is the race is getting tighter. It shows the shallowness of the support Romney has from people like you...remember: people on this board called him a "shitty choice", "windsock", "king flip-flopper", and "turd."

His unfavorability being higher than his favorables in MONTANA should emphasize that nicely.

I'm sure MT an AZ will be in Romney's column come election day but the fact that Obama is narrowing his advantage is a harbinger of doom for the Romney campaign.

Exactally, we didnt like the choice, but its much better than obama. Were honest and not lemmings, unlike liberals that keep blaming stuff on bush and then say these muslims hate us because of a movie, do you really buy that bullshit? Really????

 

[Old Rocks]

Romney jumped in during a crisis, then lied on national TV about the crisis. Then he doubled down on his lies the next day. Romney is not fit to sit in the Oval Office.

President Obama 237 Governor Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Florida President Obama 1.3

Ohio President Obama 4.2

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Romney jumped in during a crisis, then lied on national TV about the crisis. Then he doubled down on his lies the next day. Romney is not fit to sit in the Oval Office.

Considering that you think Obama is fit, you have very little credibility in that statement.

 

[BluePhantom]

Montana and Arizona should be slam dunks for Romney. All I'm saying is the race is getting tighter. It shows the shallowness of the support Romney has from people like you...remember: people on this board called him a "shitty choice", "windsock", "king flip-flopper", and "turd."

His unfavorability being higher than his favorables in MONTANA should emphasize that nicely.

I'm sure MT an AZ will be in Romney's column come election day but the fact that Obama is narrowing his advantage is a harbinger of doom for the Romney campaign.

No it just means that Obama got a solid convention bounce which is already starting to dry up. Look, people like Obama as a person and that means they really want to find a reason to vote for him. The problem is they are really struggling to do that and once the debates start it's only going to get worse because Romney should absolutely shred Obama. At the very least people will become far more acquainted with Romney and that is going to result in a good 4%-5% swing.

Now here's some things you have to keep in mind. Obama beat McCain in 2008 in a situation where the election happened right after the stock market collapse and people were hemorrhaging money and completely livid with the GOP. He had captured the popular imagination with promises of "hope and change". He had record breaking turnout among minorities who wanted to see the nations first POTUS who wasn't white. There was so much going on in his favor it was sick. Now he has none of those things. The economy still sucks and has shown no recovery, "hope and change" turned out to be "same old shit", and while minorities will still support him big time there won't be nearly the amount of voter enthusiasm in those demographics. Add on that the recent upheaval in the Middle East sure aint doing Obama any favors. Despite what the media would like to claim, most people I know feel Romney's comments were spot on...and I live in one of the most liberal cities in one of the most liberal states in America. What that means is there's no chance he will match his results of 2008. He can kiss an additional 3%-5% goodbye state by state on conditions alone.

Well in 2008 he won Virginia with 53%. Think he will get 53% this time? No way. He'll be lucky to pull 49% and it will probably be more like 45% - 46%.

He won Florida with only 51% despite all the things favoring him in 2008. This time it will be more like 44% - 45%.

He squeaked out Ohio with 52%. This time maybe 45%-46%.

Well with those three situations, Obama is done because at that point Romney is at 270* so Colorado, Nevada, and Wisconsin don't mean jack (and frankly Romney will probably win at least one of those states anyhow).

So I wouldn't get too excited about the recent polling. It's about what we would expect to see after the DNC and before the debates and the reality is that Obama's lead isn't nearly enough because Romney will gain a good 5% at minimum between now and election day.

*This is with the assumption that Romney will take North Carolina (an almost certainty) and Iowa (a strong probability)

You put some thought into it at least.
Obama has it in the bag. The sooner you accept that, the happier you'll be.

What happened to MI an PA; you guys used to talk about Romney taking them too? Hmmm Guess some people never learn.

Some people did. I didn't. Pennsylvania was a "swing state" a decade ago but it's not anymore. Michigan....as much as my fellow Republicans would love to flip Michigan, fat chance. It's about as likely as Obama taking AZ and MT.

As far as Obama "having it in the bag"....I guess if it makes you sleep better at night to think that then by all means, but you may be in for one hell of a shock in November.