Romney Pulls Ahead Despite Corrupt Media's Claims

[Zoom]

Dick "Toe Sucker" Morris? Holy shit...

He was 100% wrong which means he will be credible.on.fox.

 

[George Costanza]

So I assume you'd be willing to bet then? Obama wins and you leave this site forever, Romney wins I and I am gone forever.

How confident are you?

My confidence is growing.

The fact that you want to get rid of me makes me want to stay more and more.

That means I'm doing my job.


I figure if Obama handles the election like he handled the riots in the Middle-East Romney has already won.

No balls, eh Muddy?

 

[Dick Tuck]

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

This is the first election where you can just about bet 2 out of 3 times that who they are you'll know how they'll vote. At least that is how it stands today.

Obama leads with blacks, Hispanics, and single women, while Romney leads with just about everyone else including independents. It all comes down to turnout and Romney has enthusiasm on his side and a great field organization.

The more informed a voter is the more they lean toward Romney.

Despite what the MSM is saying Romney is looking pretty good. He'd love to be in a better position but that only means that the race will be closer than he would like.

So just like Obama's refusal to personally admit that al Qaeda was involved in the attack on our Libyan consulate the MSM refuses to tell us the truth about how the election is going. The states that always go for Democrats are still in Obama's camp but the margins aren't what it used to be, and he barely leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia which if Romney wins them the election is his. The debates will decide this election and basically this is Obama's race to lose. Judging by how well Romney did in the Republican debates one trip up and Obama is toast, and Romney has plenty of ammo to throw at him. Ryan will hand Biden his ass so this thing is close but I think Romney/Ryan will pull away after the first debate regardless how much the media tries to prevent this.

Currently Romney leads with Independents by 14 points. The electorate is divided down the middle so this will make a huge difference. Incumbency used to be an advantage but that is slowly disappearing as it usually does historically. If Obama's approval ratings stay below 50% he will lose.

Links

Romney Pulls Ahead at DickMorris.com

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

 

[bodecea]

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

This is the first election where you can just about bet 2 out of 3 times that who they are you'll know how they'll vote. At least that is how it stands today.

Obama leads with blacks, Hispanics, and single women, while Romney leads with just about everyone else including independents. It all comes down to turnout and Romney has enthusiasm on his side and a great field organization.

The more informed a voter is the more they lean toward Romney.

Despite what the MSM is saying Romney is looking pretty good. He'd love to be in a better position but that only means that the race will be closer than he would like.

So just like Obama's refusal to personally admit that al Qaeda was involved in the attack on our Libyan consulate the MSM refuses to tell us the truth about how the election is going. The states that always go for Democrats are still in Obama's camp but the margins aren't what it used to be, and he barely leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia which if Romney wins them the election is his. The debates will decide this election and basically this is Obama's race to lose. Judging by how well Romney did in the Republican debates one trip up and Obama is toast, and Romney has plenty of ammo to throw at him. Ryan will hand Biden his ass so this thing is close but I think Romney/Ryan will pull away after the first debate regardless how much the media tries to prevent this.

Currently Romney leads with Independents by 14 points. The electorate is divided down the middle so this will make a huge difference. Incumbency used to be an advantage but that is slowly disappearing as it usually does historically. If Obama's approval ratings stay below 50% he will lose.

Links

Romney Pulls Ahead at DickMorris.com

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

How odd...you were wrong with about 7 states.

 

[rightwinger]

Dick "Toe Sucker" Morris? Holy shit...

He was 100% wrong which means he will be credible.on.fox.

He tells Republicans what they want to hear. He has a future with FoxNews

 

[George Costanza]

Well, here we are - two days after the election. How's your boy doing today, Muds?

Muds? You ever take that bet?

 

[mudwhistle]

Well, here we are - two days after the election. How's your boy doing today, Muds?

Muds? You ever take that bet?

Oh, for a second I thought you were trying to be a smart-ass.

No, I never took the bet. I learned never to bet when I was a kid betting on the Super Bowl.


Food for thought; 3 million conservative voters sat this one out because of lousy fucken attitudes.

Don't feel proud about that because 10 million liberals sat this one out because of lack of enthusiasm. 13 million less voted in this election than 08'.

Wonder where they went?

 

[George Costanza]

Well, here we are - two days after the election. How's your boy doing today, Muds?

Muds? You ever take that bet?

Oh, for a second I thought you were trying to be a smart-ass.

No, I never took the bet. I learned never to bet when I was a kid betting on the Super Bowl.


Food for thought; 3 million conservative voters sat this one out because of lousy fucken attitudes.

Don't feel proud about that because 10 million liberals sat this one out because of lack of enthusiasm. 13 million less voted in this election than 08'.

Wonder where they went?

This just in: I WAS tyrying to be a smart ass. I see I failed. Wouldn't be the first time.

As I have said to more than one of my Republican friends, I feel your pain. I know how I felt in 2000 and again in 2004. I REALLY felt bad in 2004. You'll survive. I survived. We'll all survive. In fact, here's a little exercise for you: Sit back and really think about all of the bad things that you were afraid were going to happen to you and then reflect on how many of them actually did. If that doesn't work, contemplate just exactly how much impact something any POTUS does, is going to have on your own, personal life.

If none of the above, order a pizza and get drunk . . .

 

[mudwhistle]

Well, here we are - two days after the election. How's your boy doing today, Muds?

Muds? You ever take that bet?

Oh, for a second I thought you were trying to be a smart-ass.

No, I never took the bet. I learned never to bet when I was a kid betting on the Super Bowl.


Food for thought; 3 million conservative voters sat this one out because of lousy fucken attitudes.

Don't feel proud about that because 10 million liberals sat this one out because of lack of enthusiasm. 13 million less voted in this election than 08'.

Wonder where they went?

This just in: I WAS tyrying to be a smart ass. I see I failed. Wouldn't be the first time.

As I have said to more than one of my Republican friends, I feel your pain. I know how I felt in 2000 and again in 2004. I REALLY felt bad in 2004. You'll survive. I survived. We'll all survive. In fact, here's a little exercise for you: Sit back and really think about all of the bad things that you were afraid were going to happen to you and then reflect on how many of them actually did. If that doesn't work, contemplate just exactly how much impact something any POTUS does, is going to have on your own, personal life.

If none of the above, order a pizza and get drunk . . .

One thing didn't happen that I thought would happen. $6 per gal gas. That happened to California. That will happen next year now that Obama has more flexibility.

The rest of what I thought would happen unfortunately has.

Oh, and Obama will eventually admit he is a non-practicing Muslim and bi-sexual.

He won't admit he's still using coke.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

This is the first election where you can just about bet 2 out of 3 times that who they are you'll know how they'll vote. At least that is how it stands today.

Obama leads with blacks, Hispanics, and single women, while Romney leads with just about everyone else including independents. It all comes down to turnout and Romney has enthusiasm on his side and a great field organization.

The more informed a voter is the more they lean toward Romney.

Despite what the MSM is saying Romney is looking pretty good. He'd love to be in a better position but that only means that the race will be closer than he would like.

So just like Obama's refusal to personally admit that al Qaeda was involved in the attack on our Libyan consulate the MSM refuses to tell us the truth about how the election is going. The states that always go for Democrats are still in Obama's camp but the margins aren't what it used to be, and he barely leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia which if Romney wins them the election is his. The debates will decide this election and basically this is Obama's race to lose. Judging by how well Romney did in the Republican debates one trip up and Obama is toast, and Romney has plenty of ammo to throw at him. Ryan will hand Biden his ass so this thing is close but I think Romney/Ryan will pull away after the first debate regardless how much the media tries to prevent this.

Currently Romney leads with Independents by 14 points. The electorate is divided down the middle so this will make a huge difference. Incumbency used to be an advantage but that is slowly disappearing as it usually does historically. If Obama's approval ratings stay below 50% he will lose.

Links

Romney Pulls Ahead at DickMorris.com

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

How odd...you were wrong with about 7 states.

Seems that so was Scott Rassmussen. From the OP article:

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

I just came across this from September, and posted it in another thread:

Meet Dean Chambers, The Virginia Republican Who Is ‘Unskewing’ The Polls | TPM2012

Chambers’ project started in July after he noticed an ABC News/Washington Post poll that “just didn’t look right.” An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted this month showed Obama up over Romney 49 percent to 48 percent. “Unskewed,” however, after applying Rasmussen’s numbers on party ID, Romney leads Obama 52-45 in the poll. It’s like magic. But Chambers insists he isn’t “changing” or “making up” data. “The only thing I’m doing is weighting.”

But that’s exactly what most pollsters don’t do. “We don’t have any preconceived notions about the party breakdown of a poll before we conduct it. The only things we make any adjustments for are gender, race, and age,” Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen told TPM in an email. “It makes sense that as support for Obama increases, more people also identify themselves as Democrats. I know conservatives want to think it’s more Democrats in the poll causing Obama to do better, but it’s actually Obama doing better causing more Democrats in the poll.”

I guess this is why PPP was on the top of the accuracy list, and Rasmussen was in the cellar.

 

[JFK_USA]

Hahaha Republicans are such suckers

 

[rightwinger]

Well, here we are - two days after the election. How's your boy doing today, Muds?

Muds? You ever take that bet?

Oh, for a second I thought you were trying to be a smart-ass.

No, I never took the bet. I learned never to bet when I was a kid betting on the Super Bowl.


Food for thought; 3 million conservative voters sat this one out because of lousy fucken attitudes.

Don't feel proud about that because 10 million liberals sat this one out because of lack of enthusiasm. 13 million less voted in this election than 08'.

Wonder where they went?

If so many voters sat this one out. Why were the lines so fucking long?

 

[rightwinger]

This is the first election where you can just about bet 2 out of 3 times that who they are you'll know how they'll vote. At least that is how it stands today.

Obama leads with blacks, Hispanics, and single women, while Romney leads with just about everyone else including independents. It all comes down to turnout and Romney has enthusiasm on his side and a great field organization.

The more informed a voter is the more they lean toward Romney.

Despite what the MSM is saying Romney is looking pretty good. He'd love to be in a better position but that only means that the race will be closer than he would like.

So just like Obama's refusal to personally admit that al Qaeda was involved in the attack on our Libyan consulate the MSM refuses to tell us the truth about how the election is going. The states that always go for Democrats are still in Obama's camp but the margins aren't what it used to be, and he barely leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia which if Romney wins them the election is his. The debates will decide this election and basically this is Obama's race to lose. Judging by how well Romney did in the Republican debates one trip up and Obama is toast, and Romney has plenty of ammo to throw at him. Ryan will hand Biden his ass so this thing is close but I think Romney/Ryan will pull away after the first debate regardless how much the media tries to prevent this.

Currently Romney leads with Independents by 14 points. The electorate is divided down the middle so this will make a huge difference. Incumbency used to be an advantage but that is slowly disappearing as it usually does historically. If Obama's approval ratings stay below 50% he will lose.

Links

Romney Pulls Ahead at DickMorris.com

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

How odd...you were wrong with about 7 states.

Seems that so was Scott Rassmussen. From the OP article:

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

I just came across this from September, and posted it in another thread:

Meet Dean Chambers, The Virginia Republican Who Is ‘Unskewing’ The Polls | TPM2012

Chambers’ project started in July after he noticed an ABC News/Washington Post poll that “just didn’t look right.” An ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted this month showed Obama up over Romney 49 percent to 48 percent. “Unskewed,” however, after applying Rasmussen’s numbers on party ID, Romney leads Obama 52-45 in the poll. It’s like magic. But Chambers insists he isn’t “changing” or “making up” data. “The only thing I’m doing is weighting.”

But that’s exactly what most pollsters don’t do. “We don’t have any preconceived notions about the party breakdown of a poll before we conduct it. The only things we make any adjustments for are gender, race, and age,” Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling’s Tom Jensen told TPM in an email. “It makes sense that as support for Obama increases, more people also identify themselves as Democrats. I know conservatives want to think it’s more Democrats in the poll causing Obama to do better, but it’s actually Obama doing better causing more Democrats in the poll.”

I guess this is why PPP was on the top of the accuracy list, and Rasmussen was in the cellar.

Rassmussen and Gallup tied for 24th among polls

Hardly worth all the publicity they receive. They are polling dinosaurs

 

[mudwhistle]

Well, here we are - two days after the election. How's your boy doing today, Muds?

Muds? You ever take that bet?

Oh, for a second I thought you were trying to be a smart-ass.

No, I never took the bet. I learned never to bet when I was a kid betting on the Super Bowl.


Food for thought; 3 million conservative voters sat this one out because of lousy fucken attitudes.

Don't feel proud about that because 10 million liberals sat this one out because of lack of enthusiasm. 13 million less voted in this election than 08'.

Wonder where they went?

If so many voters sat this one out. Why were the lines so fucking long?

The lines here in TN were smaller btw. At least early voting. Fewer college idiots.

I think election day in battlegrounds states the lines are always long.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Well, here we are - two days after the election. How's your boy doing today, Muds?

Muds? You ever take that bet?

Oh, for a second I thought you were trying to be a smart-ass.

No, I never took the bet. I learned never to bet when I was a kid betting on the Super Bowl.


Food for thought; 3 million conservative voters sat this one out because of lousy fucken attitudes.

Don't feel proud about that because 10 million liberals sat this one out because of lack of enthusiasm. 13 million less voted in this election than 08'.

Wonder where they went?

If so many voters sat this one out. Why were the lines so fucking long?

By design. Especially in Republican controlled states.

Poll: Democratic Voters Faced Significantly Longer Lines | TPM2012

 

[mudwhistle]

Oh, for a second I thought you were trying to be a smart-ass.

No, I never took the bet. I learned never to bet when I was a kid betting on the Super Bowl.


Food for thought; 3 million conservative voters sat this one out because of lousy fucken attitudes.

Don't feel proud about that because 10 million liberals sat this one out because of lack of enthusiasm. 13 million less voted in this election than 08'.

Wonder where they went?

If so many voters sat this one out. Why were the lines so fucking long?

By design. Especially in Republican controlled states.

Poll: Democratic Voters Faced Significantly Longer Lines | TPM2012

Maybe it had something to do with minorities in cities live in more heavily populated areas, you fucking idiot. Most Red-states are more rural while Blue states are more urban.

 

[candycorn]

Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

This is the first election where you can just about bet 2 out of 3 times that who they are you'll know how they'll vote. At least that is how it stands today.

Obama leads with blacks, Hispanics, and single women, while Romney leads with just about everyone else including independents. It all comes down to turnout and Romney has enthusiasm on his side and a great field organization.

The more informed a voter is the more they lean toward Romney.

Despite what the MSM is saying Romney is looking pretty good. He'd love to be in a better position but that only means that the race will be closer than he would like.

So just like Obama's refusal to personally admit that al Qaeda was involved in the attack on our Libyan consulate the MSM refuses to tell us the truth about how the election is going. The states that always go for Democrats are still in Obama's camp but the margins aren't what it used to be, and he barely leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia which if Romney wins them the election is his. The debates will decide this election and basically this is Obama's race to lose. Judging by how well Romney did in the Republican debates one trip up and Obama is toast, and Romney has plenty of ammo to throw at him. Ryan will hand Biden his ass so this thing is close but I think Romney/Ryan will pull away after the first debate regardless how much the media tries to prevent this.

Currently Romney leads with Independents by 14 points. The electorate is divided down the middle so this will make a huge difference. Incumbency used to be an advantage but that is slowly disappearing as it usually does historically. If Obama's approval ratings stay below 50% he will lose.

Links

Romney Pulls Ahead at DickMorris.com

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

How odd...you were wrong with about 7 states.

Not that odd...he was wrong about everything else so getting 7 states wrong is nothing for that fool.

Muddy--how's my ass taste?

 

[candycorn]

So I assume you'd be willing to bet then? Obama wins and you leave this site forever, Romney wins I and I am gone forever.

How confident are you?

Count me in....c'mon muddy....don't sing it; bring it.

I will take your bet also!

Is he still here?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Awesome necro!!!!