Romney Pulls Ahead Despite Corrupt Media's Claims

mudwhistle

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Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

This is the first election where you can just about bet 2 out of 3 times that who they are you'll know how they'll vote. At least that is how it stands today.

Obama leads with blacks, Hispanics, and single women, while Romney leads with just about everyone else including independents. It all comes down to turnout and Romney has enthusiasm on his side and a great field organization.

The more informed a voter is the more they lean toward Romney.

Despite what the MSM is saying Romney is looking pretty good. He'd love to be in a better position but that only means that the race will be closer than he would like.

So just like Obama's refusal to personally admit that al Qaeda was involved in the attack on our Libyan consulate the MSM refuses to tell us the truth about how the election is going. The states that always go for Democrats are still in Obama's camp but the margins aren't what it used to be, and he barely leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia which if Romney wins them the election is his. The debates will decide this election and basically this is Obama's race to lose. Judging by how well Romney did in the Republican debates one trip up and Obama is toast, and Romney has plenty of ammo to throw at him. Ryan will hand Biden his ass so this thing is close but I think Romney/Ryan will pull away after the first debate regardless how much the media tries to prevent this.

Currently Romney leads with Independents by 14 points. The electorate is divided down the middle so this will make a huge difference. Incumbency used to be an advantage but that is slowly disappearing as it usually does historically. If Obama's approval ratings stay below 50% he will lose.

Links

Romney Pulls Ahead at DickMorris.com

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012
 
So I assume you'd be willing to bet then? Obama wins and you leave this site forever, Romney wins I and I am gone forever.

How confident are you?
 
electoralmapberrybicker-620x402.png


Pollster Scott Rasmussen has the best solution to the party id problem. He weights his polls to reflect the unweighted party identification of the previous three weeks, so he has a dynamic model which adjusts for sampling error but still takes account of gradual changes in the electorate’s partisan preferences.

Finally, with Obama below 50% of the vote in most swing states, he is hitting up against a glass ceiling in the high 40s. He can’t get past it except in heavily Democratic states like New York or California. The first time Obama breaks 50 will not be on Election Day. Either he consistently polls above 50% of the vote or he won’t ever get there in the actual vote.

So here’s where the race really stands today based on Rasmussen’s polling:

• Romney leads decisively in all states McCain carried (173 electoral votes).

• Romney is more than ten points ahead in Indiana – which Obama carried. (11 electoral votes)

• Romney leads Obama in the following states the president carried in 2008: Iowa (44-47) North Carolina (45-51), Colorado (45-47), and New Hampshire (45-48). He’ll probably win them all. (34 electoral votes).

This comes to 218 of the 270 Romney needs. But…

• Obama is below 50% of the vote in a handful of key swing states and leads Romney by razor thin margins in each one. All these states will go for Romney unless and until Obama can show polling support of 50% of the vote:

• Obama leads in Ohio (47-46) and Virginia (49-48) by only 1 point (31 electoral votes)

• Obama leads in Florida (48-460) and Nevada (47-45) by only 2 points (35 electoral votes)

If Romney carries Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, he wins. And other states are in play.

• Obama leads in Wisconsin (49-46) by only 3 points (10 electoral votes)

• Obama’s lead in Michigan is down to four points according to a recent statewide poll

• Obama is only getting 51% of the vote in Pennsylvania and 53% in New Jersey. And don’t count out New Mexico.

It would be accurate to describe the race now as tied. But Romney has the edge because:

• The incumbent is under 50% in key states and nationally. He will probably lose any state where he is below 50% of the vote.

• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher

• The GOP field organization is better.

This is the first election where you can just about bet 2 out of 3 times that who they are you'll know how they'll vote. At least that is how it stands today.

Obama leads with blacks, Hispanics, and single women, while Romney leads with just about everyone else including independents. It all comes down to turnout and Romney has enthusiasm on his side and a great field organization.

The more informed a voter is the more they lean toward Romney.

Despite what the MSM is saying Romney is looking pretty good. He'd love to be in a better position but that only means that the race will be closer than he would like.

So just like Obama's refusal to personally admit that al Qaeda was involved in the attack on our Libyan consulate the MSM refuses to tell us the truth about how the election is going. The states that always go for Democrats are still in Obama's camp but the margins aren't what it used to be, and he barely leads in Ohio, Florida, Virginia which if Romney wins them the election is his. The debates will decide this election and basically this is Obama's race to lose. Judging by how well Romney did in the Republican debates one trip up and Obama is toast, and Romney has plenty of ammo to throw at him. Ryan will hand Biden his ass so this thing is close but I think Romney/Ryan will pull away after the first debate regardless how much the media tries to prevent this.

Currently Romney leads with Independents by 14 points. The electorate is divided down the middle so this will make a huge difference. Incumbency used to be an advantage but that is slowly disappearing as it usually does historically. If Obama's approval ratings stay below 50% he will lose.

Links

Romney Pulls Ahead at DickMorris.com

Electoral College Prediction Model Points To A Mitt Romney Win In 2012

Yayyyyy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
U S A, U S A, U S A.............
 
So I assume you'd be willing to bet then? Obama wins and you leave this site forever, Romney wins I and I am gone forever.

How confident are you?

My confidence is growing.

The fact that you want to get rid of me makes me want to stay more and more.

That means I'm doing my job. :cool:


I figure if Obama handles the election like he handled the riots in the Middle-East Romney has already won.
 
Last edited:
So I assume you'd be willing to bet then? Obama wins and you leave this site forever, Romney wins I and I am gone forever.

How confident are you?

My confidence is growing.

The fact that you want to get rid of me makes me want to stay more and more.

That means I'm doing my job. :cool:

You're paid to be a Republican cheerleader?
No-one would have believed it!
 
So I assume you'd be willing to bet then? Obama wins and you leave this site forever, Romney wins I and I am gone forever.

How confident are you?

My confidence is growing.

The fact that you want to get rid of me makes me want to stay more and more.

That means I'm doing my job. :cool:

You're paid to be a Republican cheerleader?
No-one would have believed it!

Some people volunteer.......you know, do it for free.

I know being a liberal the idea of charity instead of government mandates is foreign to you.
 
My confidence is growing.

The fact that you want to get rid of me makes me want to stay more and more.

That means I'm doing my job. :cool:

You're paid to be a Republican cheerleader?
No-one would have believed it!

Some people volunteer.......you know, do it for free.

I know being a liberal the idea of charity instead of government mandates is foreign to you.

"Give me an 'R', give me an 'O', give me an 'M'......................oh never mind..."
 
• The Republican enthusiasm and likelihood of voting is higher
Yeah! Just look at the DEAFENING enthusiasm as Willard leads his supporters in a campaign cheer!!! :eusa_whistle:

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SclDiN-lcYE&feature=player_embedded]Joe Scarborough reacts to Romney clip - 'Sweet Jesus' - YouTube[/ame]
 
So I assume you'd be willing to bet then? Obama wins and you leave this site forever, Romney wins I and I am gone forever.

How confident are you?

I'll take that bet.

Romney win, you get an IP ban, no socks, no posting here ever.
Obama wins, I get an IP bn, no socks, no posting here ever.

Deal?

I noticed that a Liberal's hold on his or her beliefs is so fragile that they really get pissed at someone who knocks their media driven ideology.

Libs try to remove annoying opposition by any means rather than try to persuade them they are wrong.
 
It's funny, if you think about it. The right are so desperate that they have to explain why all the polling is wrong. Here is my prediction - the right will continue to tell us every day how Romney is actually pulling ahead, in spite of the polls showing his support dwindling. Then, when he loses, they'll tell us all how voter fraud resulted on Obama stealing the election because Romney was really more popular all along. You can save this post and hold me to it.
 
It's funny, if you think about it. The right are so desperate that they have to explain why all the polling is wrong. Here is my prediction - the right will continue to tell us every day how Romney is actually pulling ahead, in spite of the polls showing his support dwindling. Then, when he loses, they'll tell us all how voter fraud resulted on Obama stealing the election because Romney was really more popular all along. You can save this post and hold me to it.

Exactly. The right wingers are brainwashed, mentally ill idiots that can't handle the fact any time one of their (R) masters is losing or proven wrong. They will just pull out their tinfoil hats, cry "liberal conspiracy!" then screw with the polls and twist them to make Willard in the lead.
 
It's funny, if you think about it. The right are so desperate that they have to explain why all the polling is wrong. Here is my prediction - the right will continue to tell us every day how Romney is actually pulling ahead, in spite of the polls showing his support dwindling. Then, when he loses, they'll tell us all how voter fraud resulted on Obama stealing the election because Romney was really more popular all along. You can save this post and hold me to it.

why would we care? It's not something we haven't heard before
 
It's funny, if you think about it. The right are so desperate that they have to explain why all the polling is wrong. Here is my prediction - the right will continue to tell us every day how Romney is actually pulling ahead, in spite of the polls showing his support dwindling. Then, when he loses, they'll tell us all how voter fraud resulted on Obama stealing the election because Romney was really more popular all along. You can save this post and hold me to it.

Exactly. The right wingers are brainwashed, mentally ill idiots that can't handle the fact any time one of their (R) masters is losing or proven wrong. They will just pull out their tinfoil hats, cry "liberal conspiracy!" then screw with the polls and twist them to make Willard in the lead.

Pot meet kettle.

All of the polls oversample Democrats to get the numbers they're getting. This assumes the turnout will be the same as 08' and that will never happen again for Obama.
 

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