Romney consistently Polling above 50 percent.

[Procrustes Stretched]

You have to factor in the Bradley Effect, Dante.

Some white folk feel guilty telling a pollster they won't vote for the failed black guy.

Landslide.

could be that if na poll turn out that way

hello? national polls are not all that important at this late stage of the game in a race as close as this one. the trends of the national polls still give the President an edge

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

again i hope president can keep it close but uk media here are reporting it in grim turns for obama tonight

guardian a left learning paper i read and it been negative in news on wi and pa. i know it not over till it over but can,t think he can win ec vote if he so far behind in nat vote

a left or right leaning news org's opinions are by nature not worth too much by themselves.

Of course Romney 'could' win. That was a given as far back as a year and a half ago.

Things tightened up. The GOP base was on suicide watch before the debates. So what if they got a bit of momentum? It stopped .. it hit a wall.

Back to where many of us thought it would be. Odds, not headlines, still favor the President

well i am not coniced they are in favour. too much trend in national polls against him to be in his favour. i am not feeing same confidence man

As far as I can tell, the trend in national polls still give the President an edge. What are you talking about?

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

I know. I know. The lefties always denigrate Gallup and Rasmussen.

And yet, and yet, and yet, at some point they are going to have to face reality.

this isn't about two polling orgs.

please, try to keep up? It's embarrassing to watch you attempt to play

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

I know. I know. The lefties always denigrate Gallup and Rasmussen.

And yet, and yet, and yet, at some point they are going to have to face reality.

well i am facing relaity and frankly it looking very bad. can,t be behind in so many na polls and be able to win. just can,t happen

can't happen? OMFG, you're a troll!!!! 'can't' no one with any credibility is using that term on either candidate.

you just gave yourself away. the odds have the race close. can go either way. edge to the President.


jesus, what a funny friggin' thread.

 

[Leweman]

a left or right leaning news org's opinions are by nature not worth too much by themselves.

Of course Romney 'could' win. That was a given as far back as a year and a half ago.

Things tightened up. The GOP base was on suicide watch before the debates. So what if they got a bit of momentum? It stopped .. it hit a wall.

Back to where many of us thought it would be. Odds, not headlines, still favor the President

well i am not coniced they are in favour. too much trend in national polls against him to be in his favour. i am not feeing same confidence man

As far as I can tell, the trend in national polls still give the President an edge. What are you talking about?

Seriously, what the hell our you talking about? If you aren't gonna be serious then don't bother.

 

[SniperFire]

well i am not coniced they are in favour. too much trend in national polls against him to be in his favour. i am not feeing same confidence man

As far as I can tell, the trend in national polls still give the President an edge. What are you talking about?

Seriously, what the hell our you talking about? If you aren't gonna be serious then don't bother.

Is Obama's 'firewall' crumbling? Romney draws level with President in 'safe state' of Wisconsin

Obama won there by 14 points in 2008

Is Obama's 'firewall' crumbling? Romney draws level with President in 'safe state' of Wisconsin | Mail Online

 

[Leweman]

well i am not coniced they are in favour. too much trend in national polls against him to be in his favour. i am not feeing same confidence man

As far as I can tell, the trend in national polls still give the President an edge. What are you talking about?

Seriously, what the hell our you talking about? If you aren't gonna be serious then don't bother.

Damn these message boards turn my grammar to crap. our? should be ARE.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

again i hope president can keep it close but uk media here are reporting it in grim turns for obama tonight

guardian a left learning paper i read and it been negative in news on wi and pa. i know it not over till it over but can,t think he can win ec vote if he so far behind in nat vote

a left or right leaning news org's opinions are by nature not worth too much by themselves.

Of course Romney 'could' win. That was a given as far back as a year and a half ago.

Things tightened up. The GOP base was on suicide watch before the debates. So what if they got a bit of momentum? It stopped .. it hit a wall.

Back to where many of us thought it would be. Odds, not headlines, still favor the President

well i am not coniced they are in favour. too much trend in national polls against him to be in his favour. i am not feeing same confidence man

I post a link to what Cassidy says about the trends and his 'why' and I post a link to what Cassidy says about the 538/Nate analysis ... I post a link to the 538/Nate's analysis...

the links argue the trends and polls show a tight race, Obama with an edge. They show the 'why' they reach that conclusion.

you keep pretending one thing while exposing yourself as a fraud. too funny

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

As far as I can tell, the trend in national polls still give the President an edge. What are you talking about?

Seriously, what the hell our you talking about? If you aren't gonna be serious then don't bother.

Damn these message boards turn my grammar to crap. our? should be ARE.

more likely your e-motions getting the better of you. it happens when you use magical thinking as a replacement for reality

 

[Leweman]

Seriously, what the hell our you talking about? If you aren't gonna be serious then don't bother.

Damn these message boards turn my grammar to crap. our? should be ARE.

more likely your e-motions getting the better of you. it happens when you use magical thinking as a replacement for reality

nah, you seem to manage okay

 

[chikenwing]

president to not selling vision for next four years clear enough to american people

Not so much as looking ahead,but remembering the last 4 years. He didn't deliver as promised,and if Romney dosn't then we will throw him out also.

 

[Leweman]

a left or right leaning news org's opinions are by nature not worth too much by themselves.

Of course Romney 'could' win. That was a given as far back as a year and a half ago.

Things tightened up. The GOP base was on suicide watch before the debates. So what if they got a bit of momentum? It stopped .. it hit a wall.

Back to where many of us thought it would be. Odds, not headlines, still favor the President

well i am not coniced they are in favour. too much trend in national polls against him to be in his favour. i am not feeing same confidence man

I post a link to what Cassidy says about the trends and his 'why' and I post a link to what Cassidy says about the 538/Nate analysis ... I post a link to the 538/Nate's analysis...

the links argue the trends and polls show a tight race, Obama with an edge. They show the 'why' they reach that conclusion.

you keep pretending one thing while exposing yourself as a fraud. too funny

If we are using Nate Silver to predict elections then when should be using the University of Colorado study as well.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

well i am not coniced they are in favour. too much trend in national polls against him to be in his favour. i am not feeing same confidence man

I post a link to what Cassidy says about the trends and his 'why' and I post a link to what Cassidy says about the 538/Nate analysis ... I post a link to the 538/Nate's analysis...

the links argue the trends and polls show a tight race, Obama with an edge. They show the 'why' they reach that conclusion.

you keep pretending one thing while exposing yourself as a fraud. too funny

If we are using Nate Silver to predict elections then when should be using the University of Colorado study as well.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

Predictions? I have been talking about analysis of polls like the one you like.

The Colo model has not changed but they've updated things. They are stressing an economic model in states?
cool

but this is not an opposing view to what I've linked to. It's a forecasting model based heavily on economic factors. I like it, but i don't know how predictive it can seriously be

 

[Leweman]

I post a link to what Cassidy says about the trends and his 'why' and I post a link to what Cassidy says about the 538/Nate analysis ... I post a link to the 538/Nate's analysis...

the links argue the trends and polls show a tight race, Obama with an edge. They show the 'why' they reach that conclusion.

you keep pretending one thing while exposing yourself as a fraud. too funny

If we are using Nate Silver to predict elections then when should be using the University of Colorado study as well.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

Predictions? I have been talking about analysis of polls like the one you like.

The Colo model has not changed but they've updated things. They are stressing an economic model in states?
cool

but this is not an opposing view to what I've linked to. It's a forecasting model based heavily on economic factors. I like it, but i don't know how predictive it can seriously be

They have been right every time since 1980. How far back has Silver been right?

 

[Charles_Main]

Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model, like any other forecasting model, is subject to at least two sources of error: sampling error and model error. Let’s first take sampling error, which reflects the unavoidable fact that the opinions elicited by pollsters might not be truly representative of the electorate as a whole. When FiveThirtyEight projects, as it does today, that Obama will get 50.0 per cent of the vote and Romney will get 48.9 per cent, what it is really saying—assuming a margin of error of 2.5 per cent (for some reason, Silver doesn’t publish the actual figure)—is that Obama’s vote will fall somewhere between 47.5 per cent and 52.5 per cent, and Romney’s will fall somewhere between 46.4 per cent and 51.4 per cent. In short, it’s too close to call.

Read more Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

Silver and you are living in a Fantasy land where an Incumbent President isn't fucked if he can't even get over 50% in the polls 12 days before the Election.

Not only is Romney going to win, he is going to win big. Mark my words.

Now, If I am wrong I will not run and hide after the election. I will lick my wounds and move on, What I wont do, is what I know libs will do. I wont play the blame game, I wont claim Foul Play, and I wont say it's because Americans are Stupid or Racist.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model, like any other forecasting model, is subject to at least two sources of error: sampling error and model error. Let’s first take sampling error, which reflects the unavoidable fact that the opinions elicited by pollsters might not be truly representative of the electorate as a whole. When FiveThirtyEight projects, as it does today, that Obama will get 50.0 per cent of the vote and Romney will get 48.9 per cent, what it is really saying—assuming a margin of error of 2.5 per cent (for some reason, Silver doesn’t publish the actual figure)—is that Obama’s vote will fall somewhere between 47.5 per cent and 52.5 per cent, and Romney’s will fall somewhere between 46.4 per cent and 51.4 per cent. In short, it’s too close to call.

Read more Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

Silver and you are living in a Fantasy land where an Incumbent President isn't fucked if he can't even get over 50% in the polls 12 days before the Election.

Not only is Romney going to win, he is going to win big. Mark my words.

Now, If I am wrong I will not run and hide after the election. I will lick my wounds and move on, What I wont do, is what I know libs will do. I wont play the blame game, I wont claim Foul Play, and I wont say it's because Americans are Stupid or Racist.

It's game. Why would anyone even consider running away and hiding?

I was with the Kerry people on election night. I laughed at others who cried the next day. I told them to move on
you too need to

move on

you're stuck in an echo chamber of noise and stereotypes.

sucks to be you

dD

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

If we are using Nate Silver to predict elections then when should be using the University of Colorado study as well.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

Predictions? I have been talking about analysis of polls like the one you like.

The Colo model has not changed but they've updated things. They are stressing an economic model in states?
cool

but this is not an opposing view to what I've linked to. It's a forecasting model based heavily on economic factors. I like it, but i don't know how predictive it can seriously be

They have been right every time since 1980. How far back has Silver been right?

Quotes
“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” said political science Professor Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”
---

and the analysis I follow follows state-level polling as well as national polls.

what Bickers is comparing is his prediction model versus other prediction models, and not all of them.

I believe you are welcome to pay attention to a state by state economic model. Good luck with that. Some models do more and it is the analysis of the polling and the analysis of models that makes the news reports we comment on

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker




some people need a wake up call .. reality knocks

Nate Silver is one person and his model if not gospel.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker




some people need a wake up call .. reality knocks

Nate Silver is one person and his model if not gospel.

No it is not. I like it because along with Cassidy it gives me a large picture of what is happening in the world of polling and analysis.

It isn't their models I admire as much as the analysis along with the reasons why they put one state in one column or another. It's posted in a way that is open to debate. No gospel here

 

[Jackson]

Dante, you didn't give Nate Silvers record of being right in previous elections. How close was he in 2008?