Romney consistently Polling above 50 percent.

[Leweman]

This is the fourth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days.

That's a big deal now. Those 2 percent undecideds are also most likely going to go for Romney as well.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[SniperFire]

Obama is @ 48% approval in the Gallup.

That isn't enough for him.

 

[copsnrobbers]

The polls are going easy on Obama. Romney's up by at least 10 points.

I want to thank the ladies of America for standing up for themselves.

 

[decker]

This is the fourth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days.

That's a big deal now. Those 2 percent undecideds are also most likely going to go for Romney as well.

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

it begening to look like a far easier victory for romney then a close election that i thought it be.

just feel dems not going to turn out in way needed to help obama.

 

[decker]

Obama is @ 48% approval in the Gallup.

That isn't enough for him.

agree

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker




some people need a wake up call .. reality knocks

 

[decker]

The polls are going easy on Obama. Romney's up by at least 10 points.

I want to thank the ladies of America for standing up for themselves.

well that mean a landsldie which if it turn out that way the dems going to need to so massive soul searching at way obama team have run the campagain this year. feel lots of mistakes been made to under preparing the president to not selling vision for next four years clear enough to american people

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model, like any other forecasting model, is subject to at least two sources of error: sampling error and model error. Let’s first take sampling error, which reflects the unavoidable fact that the opinions elicited by pollsters might not be truly representative of the electorate as a whole. When FiveThirtyEight projects, as it does today, that Obama will get 50.0 per cent of the vote and Romney will get 48.9 per cent, what it is really saying—assuming a margin of error of 2.5 per cent (for some reason, Silver doesn’t publish the actual figure)—is that Obama’s vote will fall somewhere between 47.5 per cent and 52.5 per cent, and Romney’s will fall somewhere between 46.4 per cent and 51.4 per cent. In short, it’s too close to call.

Read more Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

 

[decker]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker




some people need a wake up call .. reality knocks

promblem is nate forcecast is not going in line with national polls for obama. he not getting anywhere near 50% nationally. you can,t win with those numbers

i hope nate proves me wrong but i am sensing that we not going to win this man.

 

[decker]

Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model, like any other forecasting model, is subject to at least two sources of error: sampling error and model error. Let’s first take sampling error, which reflects the unavoidable fact that the opinions elicited by pollsters might not be truly representative of the electorate as a whole. When FiveThirtyEight projects, as it does today, that Obama will get 50.0 per cent of the vote and Romney will get 48.9 per cent, what it is really saying—assuming a margin of error of 2.5 per cent (for some reason, Silver doesn’t publish the actual figure)—is that Obama’s vote will fall somewhere between 47.5 per cent and 52.5 per cent, and Romney’s will fall somewhere between 46.4 per cent and 51.4 per cent. In short, it’s too close to call.

Read more Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

again i hope president can keep it close but uk media here are reporting it in grim turns for obama tonight

guardian a left learning paper i read and it been negative in news on wi and pa. i know it not over till it over but can,t think he can win ec vote if he so far behind in nat vote

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker




some people need a wake up call .. reality knocks

promblem is nate forcecast is not going in line with national polls for obama. he not getting anywhere near 50% nationally. you can,t win with those numbers

i hope nate proves me wrong but i am sensing that we not going to win this man.

Who uses the Nate forecast as a national poll? It evaluates polls.

Nate's forecasts of recent years have been far better than most.


then there is what Cassidy is saying. Cassidy is pretty good at explaining 'why' he writes what he does.

 

[SniperFire]

You have to factor in the Bradley Effect, Dante.

Some white folk feel guilty telling a pollster they won't vote for the failed black guy.

Landslide.

 

[decker]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

Rational Irrationality : The New Yorker




some people need a wake up call .. reality knocks

promblem is nate forcecast is not going in line with national polls for obama. he not getting anywhere near 50% nationally. you can,t win with those numbers

i hope nate proves me wrong but i am sensing that we not going to win this man.

Who uses the Nate forecast as a national poll? It evaluates polls.

Nate's forecasts of recent years have been far better than most.


then there is what Cassidy is saying. Cassidy is pretty good at explaining 'why' he writes what he does.

i understand what you mean but even though he assesing it , i am reading journalists from uk telegraph and guardian from ground in va, wi and ohio that those dems they spoke to not in high enthuseum. that not good as obama badly needs high turn out and it looks like that might happen

if everyone came out in dem turn out side nate be right in his forecast but i think he overdone idea dems turn out in high numbers. i just don,t see it at the moment

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

FiveThirtyEight’s forecasting model, like any other forecasting model, is subject to at least two sources of error: sampling error and model error. Let’s first take sampling error, which reflects the unavoidable fact that the opinions elicited by pollsters might not be truly representative of the electorate as a whole. When FiveThirtyEight projects, as it does today, that Obama will get 50.0 per cent of the vote and Romney will get 48.9 per cent, what it is really saying—assuming a margin of error of 2.5 per cent (for some reason, Silver doesn’t publish the actual figure)—is that Obama’s vote will fall somewhere between 47.5 per cent and 52.5 per cent, and Romney’s will fall somewhere between 46.4 per cent and 51.4 per cent. In short, it’s too close to call.

Read more Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

again i hope president can keep it close but uk media here are reporting it in grim turns for obama tonight

guardian a left learning paper i read and it been negative in news on wi and pa. i know it not over till it over but can,t think he can win ec vote if he so far behind in nat vote

a left or right leaning news org's opinions are by nature not worth too much by themselves.

Of course Romney 'could' win. That was a given as far back as a year and a half ago.

Things tightened up. The GOP base was on suicide watch before the debates. So what if they got a bit of momentum? It stopped .. it hit a wall.

Back to where many of us thought it would be. Odds, not headlines, still favor the President

 

[decker]

You have to factor in the Bradley Effect, Dante.

Some white folk feel guilty telling a pollster they won't vote for the failed black guy.

Landslide.

could be that if na poll turn out that way

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

You have to factor in the Bradley Effect, Dante.

Some white folk feel guilty telling a pollster they won't vote for the failed black guy.

Landslide.

not in a race this tight. The Ohio count will be won or lost on turnout.

Evangelicals are on the move for Romney and the very strong Ohio Unions are making a huge push for the President.

 

[decker]

Brooks vs. Silver: The Limits of Forecasting Elections : The New Yorker

again i hope president can keep it close but uk media here are reporting it in grim turns for obama tonight

guardian a left learning paper i read and it been negative in news on wi and pa. i know it not over till it over but can,t think he can win ec vote if he so far behind in nat vote

a left or right leaning news org's opinions are by nature not worth too much by themselves.

Of course Romney 'could' win. That was a given as far back as a year and a half ago.

Things tightened up. The GOP base was on suicide watch before the debates. So what if they got a bit of momentum? It stopped .. it hit a wall.

Back to where many of us thought it would be. Odds, not headlines, still favor the President

well i am not coniced they are in favour. too much trend in national polls against him to be in his favour. i am not feeing same confidence man

 

[Liability]

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

I know. I know. The lefties always denigrate Gallup and Rasmussen.

And yet, and yet, and yet, at some point they are going to have to face reality.

 

[decker]

Election 2012 Likely Voters Trial Heat: Obama vs. Romney

I know. I know. The lefties always denigrate Gallup and Rasmussen.

And yet, and yet, and yet, at some point they are going to have to face reality.

well i am facing relaity and frankly it looking very bad. can,t be behind in so many na polls and be able to win. just can,t happen

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

promblem is nate forcecast is not going in line with national polls for obama. he not getting anywhere near 50% nationally. you can,t win with those numbers

i hope nate proves me wrong but i am sensing that we not going to win this man.

Who uses the Nate forecast as a national poll? It evaluates polls.

Nate's forecasts of recent years have been far better than most.


then there is what Cassidy is saying. Cassidy is pretty good at explaining 'why' he writes what he does.

i understand what you mean but even though he assesing it , i am reading journalists from uk telegraph and guardian from ground in va, wi and ohio that those dems they spoke to not in high enthuseum. that not good as obama badly needs high turn out and it looks like that might happen

if everyone came out in dem turn out side nate be right in his forecast but i think he overdone idea dems turn out in high numbers. i just don,t see it at the moment

The President needs to win in Ohio as does Romney. Journalists need to fill space. I always take what they write with a bit of skepticism. I like reading tough analysis of hard data.


The media gets close races wrong as often as they get them correct. Same goes with polls, national as well as internal as well as local... Nate has an exemplary record of matching analysis with final outcome.

Cassidy offers great analysis with his reasoning laid out.