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And while business leaders gathered at the annual World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos relish the productivity gains technology can bring, they warned this week that the collateral damage to jobs needs to be addressed more seriously. From taxi drivers to healthcare professionals, technologies such as robotics, driverless cars, artificial intelligence and 3-D printing mean more and more types of jobs are at risk. Adidas , for example, aims to use 3-D printing in the manufacture of some running shoes. "Jobs will be lost, jobs will evolve and this revolution is going to be ageless, it's going to be classless and it's going to affect everyone," said Meg Whitman, chief executive of Hewlett Packard Enterprise .
An attendee communicate with SARA a robot assisstant during a presentation at the WEF in Davos
So while some supporters of Donald Trump and Brexit may hope new government policies will bring lost jobs back to America's Rust Belt or Britain's industrial north, economists estimate 86 percent of U.S. manufacturing job losses are actually down to productivity, according to the WEF's annual risks report. "Technology is the big issue and we don't acknowledge that," Mark Weinberger, chairman of consultancy EY, said on Thursday, arguing there was a tendency to always blame trading partners. The political backdrop is prompting CEOs to take more seriously the challenge of long-life training of workforces to keep up with the exponential growth of technological advances. "I think what we're reaching now is a time when we may have to find alternative careers through our lifetime," Microsoft Chief Executive Satya Nadella told Reuters.
An attendee communicate with SARA, a socially aware robot assisstant, during a presentation at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland
Over the last decade, more jobs have been lost to technology than any other factor, and John Drzik, head of global risk at insurance broker Marsh, expects more of the same. "That is going to raise challenges, particularly given the political context," Drzik, who helped compile the WEF report, said. Compared to clamping down on immigration by tightening borders, dealing with the impact of technology destroying jobs is something that is perhaps even less easily controlled. For while many advanced technologies remain more expensive than low- or medium-skilled labor in the near term, the shift is likely to accelerate as costs come down.
WIDENING GAP
Technological advancements require governments, businesses and academic institutions to develop more educated and highly skilled workforces, executives in Davos said. But this shift to skilled workers also widens the income gap and fuels growing inequality. Jonas Prising, CEO of staffing firm ManpowerGroup , noted that U.S. unemployment is only about 2 to 2.5 percent among college-educated people but 9 or 10 percent among those with low or no skills. "The idea that we would ban automation as part of an evolution within the manufacturing industry, is not really part of the discussion," Prising said. He pointed to policies in countries like Denmark and Italy, where there is a focus on employability of workers. "If we don't own responsibility (for the problem of displaced workers), it's only going to get bigger," Procter & Gamble Chief Executive David Taylor said.
BRAWN AND BRAIN
Sir Anthony Seldon, Vice-Chancellor of the University of Buckingham, said intelligent machines that adapt to suit the learning styles of individual children will soon render traditional academic teaching all but redundant. The former Master of Wellington College said programmes currently being developed in Silicon Valley will learn to read the brains and facial expressions of pupils, adapting the method of communication to what works best for them.
The new era of automated teaching promises an end to grouping children by year, as the personalised nature of the robots will enable pupils to learn new material at their own pace, rather than as part of a class. "It will open up the possibility of an Eton or Wellington-style education for all,” Sir Anthony said. "Everyone can have the very best teacher and it's completely personalised; the software you're working with will be with you throughout your education journey.” He warned, however, that the new technology would have to be carefully introduced to avoid “infantilising” pupils and teachers.
As part of robot-led learning, teachers would adopt the role of “overseers”, monitoring the progress of individual pupils, leading non-academic activities and providing pastoral support, Sir Anthony said. The efficiency of automated teaching would also mean that only 30 per cent of school time will be spent in class. A contemporary historian who has written biographies of David Cameron, Tony Blair, John Major and Gordon Brown, Sir Anthony heralds the new educational era in a book, The Fourth Revolution", due out next year. “The impact is going to be massive” he said. “This is beyond anything that we've seen in the industrial revolution or since with any other new technology.”
The first revolution is understood to consist of learning the basics of survival - foraging, hunting, growing crops and building shelters. The second involved the first organised sharing of knowledge and the third was marked by the invention of printing. Automated teaching machines would be “extraordinarily inspirational”, Sir Anthony said. "You'll still have the humans there walking around during school time, but in fact the inspiration in terms of intellectual excitement will come from the lighting-up of the brain which the machines will be superbly well-geared for. "The machines will know what it is that most excites you and gives you a natural level of challenge that is not too hard or too easy, but just right for you." He expected the National Union of Teachers to be "very alarmed" by the prospect.
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