Repub. Candidates Have Large Leads: VA and NJ

Discussion in 'Congress' started by Tech_Esq, May 11, 2009.

  1. Tech_Esq
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    Tech_Esq Sic Semper Tyrannis!

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    Is the bloom off the rose?

    In BOTH the Virginia and, more surprisingly, the New Jersey Governors races (election this November) the Republican candidates are ahead by 10 and 15 points respectively.

    While the media is pelting us with "Republicans are the party of 'NO'" and Obama's overwhelming popularity, why are these candidates seeing such amazing success?

    In NJ, a newcomer is challenging an incumbent who should have an advantage. In Virginia, the current governor is also the Chair of the DNC. A former chair, Terry McAuliffe is on the ballot for the Dems, but he's 10 points down to a Republican and not polling above 35%.

    Why are the Dems stumbling at the height of their success?
     
  2. Tech_Esq
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    Tech_Esq Sic Semper Tyrannis!

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    Oooops, this should be moved to Politics.
     
  3. Amanda
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    Amanda Calm as a Hindu cow

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    This simply isn't possible, the GOP is doomed. I know it's true because there's a new thread here everyday that says so.

    Isn't wishful thinking delightful? :)
     
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  4. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    Actually, they aren't.... you're looking at a couple of states in a vacuum.

    Nate Silver, my favorite brilliant nerd, made this observation:

    FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: governor

    And lets not forget that Crist is probably going to want to head to the Senate so the Florida governorship will be up for graps... and the governator is going to be done with his stint in Cali.

    Interesting times.... and almost everything depends on what happens with the economy over the next year.
     
  5. Tech_Esq
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    Tech_Esq Sic Semper Tyrannis!

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    Actually, considering he is a Dem, Kaine hasn't done too bad in handling the budget shortfall in VA. Some of his priorities are screwed up, but I would probably think that if he was a Repub. too. He has a Repub. House to deal with, so maybe that's part of it. He's on a fairly short leash and the Gov. of VA is a fairly weak post being term limited to one term.

    It think the point is though, that these elections are occurring in 6 months. So, the economy won't have much time to recover. While some things may be looking up, the jobs are still likely to be in the crapper.

    The anti-incumbent feeling may explain NJ though. Corzine is taking it in the shorts over the budget issue and his 90 MPH incident. Being tied to Goldman probably doesn't help him right now either.
     
  6. Kalam
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    Kalam Senior Member

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    Ugh. McDonnell is a holy-rolling nutbag. I'm not sure if any of the Dems are better, though; I'll need to read more about them.
     
  7. Tech_Esq
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    Tech_Esq Sic Semper Tyrannis!

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    Is he? You have any info on that?

    I didn't see any material on his site that led me to that conclusion. (Other than an endorsement from Huckabee).
     
  8. Kalam
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    Kalam Senior Member

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    It's an assumption I base on his palling around with Pat Robertson. I didn't see anything on his site about it either, I think it focuses on discussing his accomplishments more than it does his political positions.

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LBAeNmLGbk"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LBAeNmLGbk[/ame]
     
  9. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    It seems in general that there's huge anti-incumbant feeling when it comes to governors. And, let's not forget, Pawlenty is going to have massive problems in Michigan because he won't certify the results of the senate election. I read an article about him "taking one for the team".

    well, i suspect it will also come down to does the gov seem like part of the solution or part of the problem.
     
  10. Tech_Esq
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    Tech_Esq Sic Semper Tyrannis!

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    If you are a Repub. in VA running for state-wide office, you are going to have to pal around with Pat. Although he's a national figure, his organization is based in VA. I view that like an endorsement from Huckabee....pro forma unless it's shown not to be.
     

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