Remember the Peak oil fairly tale?

[CrusaderFrank]

The U.S. is now the second largest fossil fuel producer in the world. So why are gasoline and diesel prices still out of this world? Because it isn't being sold here. It is being sent overseas.

So it's that we're short on supply that's driving up the prices?

 

[dilloduck]

gee didnt know that.......come on......Obama wants to find more to put them off limit.....whats your point.......timing of this still puzzles

I think you raise a good point---The decision is based on a money/power issue of some kind. Maybe another threat to Russia.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The U.S. is now the second largest fossil fuel producer in the world. So why are gasoline and diesel prices still out of this world? Because it isn't being sold here. It is being sent overseas.

So we should build Keystone pipeline?

 

[dilloduck]

Do you think we could get lucky enough to have a few more refineries built ?

 

[Mr. H.]

Do you think we could get lucky enough to have a few more refineries built ?

The first since 1976:

Refineries sprout in North Dakota, bucking the trend | Reuters

Existing refineries are expanding.

 

[RGR]

Do you believe that fossil fuels are an unlimited resource?

Are you kidding? I can, and have, lectured domestically and internationally on the uncertain, but finite, size of oil, gas, tar sands, shale oil, and hydrate resources.

Fortunately, the size of those resources allow for a lengthy transition time to whatever humans decide is the next power generation scheme they prefer. Even more fortunately, that transition is already underway, as those of us using windmill and PV energy to fuel our cars can attest.

 

[RGR]

The U.S. is now the second largest fossil fuel producer in the world. So why are gasoline and diesel prices still out of this world? Because it isn't being sold here. It is being sent overseas.

So it's that we're short on supply that's driving up the prices?

I don't know about where you live, but I can arrange for a tanker truck of the fuel of my choice to be delivered right to my front yard.

What shortage of supply are you referring to?

 

[orogenicman]

Do you believe that fossil fuels are an unlimited resource?

Are you kidding? I can, and have, lectured domestically and internationally on the uncertain, but finite, size of oil, gas, tar sands, shale oil, and hydrate resources.

Fortunately, the size of those resources allow for a lengthy transition time to whatever humans decide is the next power generation scheme they prefer. Even more fortunately, that transition is already underway, as those of us using windmill and PV energy to fuel our cars can attest.

Is that a fact? Then perhaps you could provide us with a bibliography of your esteemed lectures, along with proof that you are the author.

 

[orogenicman]

The U.S. is now the second largest fossil fuel producer in the world. So why are gasoline and diesel prices still out of this world? Because it isn't being sold here. It is being sent overseas.

So it's that we're short on supply that's driving up the prices?

I don't know about where you live, but I can arrange for a tanker truck of the fuel of my choice to be delivered right to my front yard.

What shortage of supply are you referring to?

I'm sure you can. The question is do you have proper storage tanks to contain it, and if so, what makes you think anyone else has this ability?

 

[RGR]

Do you believe that fossil fuels are an unlimited resource?

Are you kidding? I can, and have, lectured domestically and internationally on the uncertain, but finite, size of oil, gas, tar sands, shale oil, and hydrate resources.

Is that a fact? Then perhaps you could provide us with a bibliography of your esteemed lectures, along with proof that you are the author.

Not a chance in hell. You want to learn something, you don't need to know who I am, you just need to show up. I've done 3 presentations at national conferences in the past year, you want to play this game professionally and get known, you do what the rest of us do. URTeC is in Denver next month, I won't be presenting there but I could do lunch. I presented at the AAPG national in April, twice, show up, ask questions like the rest of the web-centric world that likes to think you can substitute virtual knowledge for the kind gained across decades of experience, learn something, ask questions, etc etc.

Perhaps you prefer numbers? The SPE numerical modeling symposium will probably be firing up again late winter, but that requires pre-approval, and unless you've got a resume to back it up, odds are they won't let you in. The Oil Shale Symposium at Co. School of Mines is probably in October, stop by, last year there were great discussions on gas hydrtaes in conjunction with oil shale potential.

Perhaps you prefer analysis and finance? Unfortunately, the EIA conference concluded about a week ago in Washington, I recommend that one for those more interested in the downstream pieces of the industry.

 

[RGR]

The question is do you have proper storage tanks to contain it, and if so, what makes you think anyone else has this ability?

That isn't my question. Or answer. I was commenting on the shortage of supply that can't be found, at least at the consumer and tanker truck level.

 

[orogenicman]

The question is do you have proper storage tanks to contain it, and if so, what makes you think anyone else has this ability?

That isn't my question. Or answer. I was commenting on the shortage of supply that can't be found, at least at the consumer and tanker truck level.

The issue with our supply is primarily the fact that years ago the petroleum industry moved towards just on time delivery. This means that the days of widespread large bulk facilities holding many weeks to months of gasoline and diesel supplies is over. Today, it is refined and put on the market as fast as is possible. They do not make more than they can sell in a few days to a week or so, because those storage facilities are very expensive and have caused widespread contamination that is very expensive to remediate. The downside is that if a refinery goes off line, we become vulnerable to shortages fairly quickly.

 

[RGR]

The question is do you have proper storage tanks to contain it, and if so, what makes you think anyone else has this ability?

That isn't my question. Or answer. I was commenting on the shortage of supply that can't be found, at least at the consumer and tanker truck level.

The issue with our supply is primarily the fact that years ago the petroleum industry moved towards just on time delivery.

Well...using reserves as a metric of inventory, supply in the future has remained pretty static over the years, speaking globally.

So if your just in time idea spans years, I don't have any trouble with that. Certainly just in time in terms of discovering, drilling, completing, producing, refining and distributing oil and gas products can't be as just in time as many might think. Particularly the "discovering" part.

This means that the days of widespread large bulk facilities holding many weeks to months of gasoline and diesel supplies is over.

Well...certainly those already here aren't going anywhere. And are quite large.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_Petroleum_Reserve_(United_States)

Today, it is refined and put on the market as fast as is possible.

Always has been, except for swing producers, such as the US back in the days of the TRRC quotas, or Saudi Arabia nowadays.

They do not make more than they can sell in a few days to a week or so, because those storage facilities are very expensive and have caused widespread contamination that is very expensive to remediate. The downside is that if a refinery goes off line, we become vulnerable to shortages fairly quickly.

Not in the US, we have so much spare refining capacity right now we exporting refined products like nobodies business. Make a refinery disappear and we export less. Won't bother you and me. Prices might fluctuate, but that is pretty normal nowadays.

 

[orogenicman]

That isn't my question. Or answer. I was commenting on the shortage of supply that can't be found, at least at the consumer and tanker truck level.

The issue with our supply is primarily the fact that years ago the petroleum industry moved towards just on time delivery.

Well...using reserves as a metric of inventory, supply in the future has remained pretty static over the years, speaking globally.

So if your just in time idea spans years, I don't have any trouble with that. Certainly just in time in terms of discovering, drilling, completing, producing, refining and distributing oil and gas products can't be as just in time as many might think. Particularly the "discovering" part.

Just in time delivery has nothing to do with any of the other issues you mention. It is a product of the petroleum industry cutting it's overhead to the bare bones to maximize their profits (as if charging $4,00/gal. wasn't enough).

Today, it is refined and put on the market as fast as is possible.

Always has been, except for swing producers, such as the US back in the days of the TRRC quotas, or Saudi Arabia nowadays.

No, that is actually not true. As an example, There used to be multiple petroleum companies with multiple storage facilities where I live (Louisville, Kentucky). We had Ashland Petroleum, Standard Oil/Chevron, Texaco, Exxon, Marathon, and others that supplied our market and the region. There was a six month supply. Today, the only supplier is Marathon. Period. And they only keep a two week's supply available most months.

They do not make more than they can sell in a few days to a week or so, because those storage facilities are very expensive and have caused widespread contamination that is very expensive to remediate. The downside is that if a refinery goes off line, we become vulnerable to shortages fairly quickly.

Not in the US, we have so much spare refining capacity right now we exporting refined products like nobodies business. Make a refinery disappear and we export less. Won't bother you and me. Prices might fluctuate, but that is pretty normal nowadays.

Yes in the U.S. I am talking about domestic capacity which is deliberately weak. Of course they are selling a shitload of it to offshore markets - why wouldn't they? They can get more for it elsewhere.

 

[RGR]

Just in time delivery has nothing to do with any of the other issues you mention. It is a product of the petroleum industry cutting it's overhead to the bare bones to maximize their profits (as if charging $4,00/gal. wasn't enough).

Well…it isn't a matter of "charging", gasoline brings what the market will bear. If you, or I, don't assign a value to the product that is requested, we don't buy it, and if enough people feel this way, this shift in supply and demand curves generates another equilibrium price.

No, that is actually not true. As an example, There used to be multiple petroleum companies with multiple storage facilities where I live (Louisville, Kentucky). We had Ashland Petroleum, Standard Oil/Chevron, Texaco, Exxon, Marathon, and others that supplied our market and the region. There was a six month supply. Today, the only supplier is Marathon. Period. And they only keep a two week's supply available most months.

And this works because the pipeline bringing refined products up from the Gulf doesn't break down very often. There was no need for above optimal storage locally. I don't think this is really a surprise, is it?

Not in the US, we have so much spare refining capacity right now we exporting refined products like nobodies business. Make a refinery disappear and we export less. Won't bother you and me. Prices might fluctuate, but that is pretty normal nowadays.

Yes in the U.S. I am talking about domestic capacity which is deliberately weak. Of course they are selling a shitload of it to offshore markets - why wouldn't they? They can get more for it elsewhere.

Deliberately weak? We have nearly twice the refinery capacity of the domestic oil supply, that isn't deliberately weak, it is WAY overbuilt. Unless….you are making money using these manufacturing facilities (which is really what refineries are) to export a product. Instead of cars, or finished steel, its petrochemicals. And if you can make more money on the global market, it is the American way to maximize your margin, therefore it makes perfect sense to sell outside the domestic market.

 

[ralfy]

Peak oil is not a fairy tale but a scientific fact. It's based on oil being a limited resource, gravity, and cost of processing oil for various uses.

It doesn't refer to reserves but to production rate, and in this case a maximum rate of production,

Resorting to shale oil doesn't negate peak oil but actually confirms it. Otherwise, production from older oil fields should have continued rising indefinitely.

It's not just oil prices but prices for various commodities that are experiencing similar issues.

Finally, capital expenditures and marginal costs have gone up considerably during the last few years.

 

[Mr. H.]

Peak oil is not a fairy tale but a scientific fact. It's based on oil being a limited resource, gravity, and cost of processing oil for various uses.

It doesn't refer to reserves but to production rate, and in this case a maximum rate of production,

Resorting to shale oil doesn't negate peak oil but actually confirms it. Otherwise, production from older oil fields should have continued rising indefinitely.

It's not just oil prices but prices for various commodities that are experiencing similar issues.

Finally, capital expenditures and marginal costs have gone up considerably during the last few years.

Where in the fuck did you come from?

 

[ralfy]

Where in the fuck did you come from?

Sorry, please elaborate.

 

[Mr. H.]

Where in the fuck did you come from?

Sorry, please elaborate.

Here's an elaborate Brotch-slap.

I don't hand these out freely. Consider yourself anointed.