Redefinition of BRIC

[ekrem]

BRIC Creator O?Neill Seeks to Revamp Emerging-Market Definition - Bloomberg

The chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management plans to add Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and Indonesia into a new grouping with the Brics – Brazil, Russia, India and China – that he dubs “growth markets”.
(...)
The concept of “emerging markets” was coined 30 years ago by Antoine van Agtmael, then a World Bank economist and now chairman of Emerging Markets Management, an investment firm. His aim was to replace patronising phrases such as “third world”.
(....)
“Some emerging markets should be traded as emerging markets – they are illiquid and small, and investors should remember that, (...)
But any economy from the emerging markets world that is already 1 per cent of global GDP or more, and has the potential for that to rise, has the ability to be taken seriously.”

FT.com / Markets - ?Bric? creator adds newcomers to list

 

[ekrem]

After Turkey has achieved to raise its credit rating 2 times during the economic crisis as the only OECD country, finally in 2011 Turkey is set to be raised to investment-rate credit rating.
It means 'safe to invest'.

Turkey Debt Rating Reaching Investment Grade Possible By June - Bloomberg

This will pour more money into Turkey from our Arab and Chinese friends. And from others.

Credit-Default-Swaps already are better then 9 EU members:
Turkey’s credit default swaps trade at historic lows - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

 

[ekrem]

Public debt will sink to 38.8% in 2012.
In relation to GDP.
Turkey Converging With BRICs on Cheapest to China Default Swaps - Bloomberg

 

[ekrem]

Preliminary data from World Bank suggest, that Turkey has grown 8.1 percent in 2010.
?Turkey to grow twice world economic growth in 2010?

 

[ekrem]

PriceWaterHouseCoopers says, that Family companies in Turkey represent 95 percent of the workforce and they account for 75 percent of the national income.
Family companies growing in Turkey, research says - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

It is not the elitist and corporatist model of the USA.
Off course, we also have big corporations, but the economic model is modeled after Germany, where family SME's represent the backbone of the German economy.

 

[editec]

If I were younger I'd seriously consider checking out Brazil.

It is, I think, a nation with a hell of a future in front of it.

 

[ekrem]

If I were younger I'd seriously consider checking out Brazil.

It is, I think, a nation with a hell of a future in front of it.

Yes, Brazil will become a true global power.
The only problem they have, like in Americas generally - is organized crime in the suburbs. In 2014 Brazil will host the World Soccer Championship, so the Brazilian Police is currently cracking those illegal organizations down.
Other then that, Brazil doesn't seem to have big issues threatening its growth path.

They are sending the Army into the suburbs of the big cities:
(Video)
Rio police use tanks against gangs | euronews, no comment

(Text)
Brazil says Rio violence will not affect World Cup - Latest sport news
Police squeeze drug gangs in Rio’s favelas | euronews, world news

 

[ekrem]

The economy is taking off, although it may be headed east rather than west

BBC News - Turkey's boom brings dilemmas new and old

 

[Ropey]

The economy is taking off, although it may be headed east rather than west

Oh, yes, there is growth in that arena. Considering the stage that those countries set as far as modernization goes, it is necessary.

But outclass the West?

Well, you did yous definitive word "May".

 

[ekrem]

Turkish investments abroad grow more than sixfold since 2001.

2001: $3.7 billion
2011: $23.6 billion

To the Netherlands has gone the most with $5.1 billion investments.
Turkish investments abroad grow more than sixfold since 2001

Off course, grouchy aunt Ropey will again have to say something grouchy.

 

[ekrem]

Turkish construction industry has done international contracts worth of
2002-2010: $135 billion

Turkish contractors aim for $30 bln in projects abroad

Target for 2011 in International contracts is 30 Billion $.
The tender to reconstruct Sadr-City in Baghdad for 11.3 Billion $ we already won:
usmb.com thread


UK Trade & Invest
ukti.gov.uk

- One in four of the largest companies in the Middle East and North Africa are Turkish.
- 65 per cent of industrial exports from the Middle East and North Africa originate from Turkey.
- Turkey’s construction/contracting sector is the second largest in the world, after China.

 

[william the wie]

Turkish construction industry has done international contracts worth of
2002-2010: $135 billion

Turkish contractors aim for $30 bln in projects abroad

Target for 2011 in International contracts is 30 Billion $.
The tender to reconstruct Sadr-City in Baghdad for 11.3 Billion $ we already won:
usmb.com thread


UK Trade & Invest
ukti.gov.uk

- One in four of the largest companies in the Middle East and North Africa are Turkish.
- 65 per cent of industrial exports from the Middle East and North Africa originate from Turkey.
- Turkey’s construction/contracting sector is the second largest in the world, after China.

Turkey should do well but my money would be on Brazil and/or Indonesia for better returns: larger populations, larger territories and better access to rivers and seas for better logistics. (Marginally better in the case of Brazil but the Amazon provides barge service to parts of Ecuador which does not border Brazil and Brazil also has access to Rio de la Platte in the south.) Also Turkey's major markets are having political or demographic problems now, which will hold it back. Short of a Turkish friendly regime in Bagdad I don't see Turkey achieving the same degree of per capita GDP growth as those other two.

 

[ekrem]

Turkey should do well but my money would be on Brazil and/or Indonesia for better returns: larger populations, larger territories and better access to rivers and seas for better logistics. (Marginally better in the case of Brazil but the Amazon provides barge service to parts of Ecuador which does not border Brazil and Brazil also has access to Rio de la Platte in the south.) Also Turkey's major markets are having political or demographic problems now, which will hold it back. Short of a Turkish friendly regime in Bagdad I don't see Turkey achieving the same degree of per capita GDP growth as those other two.

The parts I agree with I have marked blue. And I would add to them also oil resources (Brazil's Off-Shore oil deposits and abundant other resources on the mainland).
I have no doubt, that Brazil will reach its full development potential.

Indonesia on the other hand is an island nation and in its proximity are far bigger powers like China and Japan.
The question of containment comes to mind, and how far Indonesia is going to be able to project influence into mainland Asia from its island. In my opinion Zero.

Brazil on the other hand is already dominating S.America.
It will consolidate its position and together with continuous socio-economic growth it will establish itself as one pole of the world with a big say in world politics.
The only way for Indonesia to achieve a similar 'weight' like Brazil is going to be through the Muslim world.
But Indonesia lacks proximity, depth and history with core Muslim lands.
Indonesia is neither a player in N.Africa, M.East or C.Asia nor does it share any history or cultural and ethnical connections to these regions.
Indonesia is simply an island nation in the Pacific and is being contained by its direct neighbors China and USA.

Turkey's population base is much smaller then Brazil's or Indonesia's population base.
And there is no logic and potential that Turkey will achieve same strategic weight as Brazil.
In theoretical thinking you just compare specific datas of different countries like GDP, budget, Army-Size and so on.
But, I believe that country-specific data can only be of significance when connected to the geographical factor.
Because the continents are not of equal importance to the World dynamics.
Someone who is dominateing the Middle-East is more important for the World dynamics then someone who controlls Europe.
Europe is somehow, maybe preferentially, a self-contained continent not really of importance to the world besides of the economical factor.
Then there is the law of A to B distance and someone who wants to dominate distant regions will have a drain on its budget by deploying and supporting its logistics of power-projection into those distant lands.
I hope you agree with me, that the importance of geography is important, very important in conjunction with other power-specifying datas like economy and army.

In the historical context I have to add this:
There exists romanticism in the Muslim world resulting from the Arab expansion of Islam in the first millennium. Kudos to them, undoubtedly.
But, let's be real, the Arabs advanced Islam when Europe was no geo-political force.
In those times of Muslim expansion, Arabs didn't face heavy front-wind from Christian Europe.
When Turks (Seljuks+Ottoman) took over Islam, things with Europe were much more different.
Europe had much more power, and later on with Industrialization the Ottomans came totally under the wheels.
The above is what I meant with Indonesia lacking depth in the Muslim world besides the other factors I mentioned.

Is historical depth enough ?
Off course not, as it is also only romanticism.
So, what it is all about then?

States do function with budgets.
With budgets you finance science, military etc..
This defines how big your stick is, and how the size of your stick elevates you to treat other nations with smaller sticks.

Turkey produces 33.1% of the scientific output of the Muslim world:

UK's national Royal Institute:
Number of papers published in scientific journals from 57 member OIC and selected countries share of total in time range 2004 - 2008.

33,1 % - Turkey
15,7 % - Iran
7,4 % - Egypt
4,4 % - Pakistan
3,6 % - S.Arabia
1,4 % - Indonesia

PDF
http://royalsociety.org/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=4294971248

Turkey exports 65% of industrial materials from M.East and N.Africa:

UK Trade & Invest
ukti.gov.uk

- One in four of the largest companies in the Middle East and North Africa are Turkish.
- 65 per cent of industrial exports from the Middle East and North Africa originate from Turkey.

Turkey is establishing about 5.1 new Universities each year

Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey
Total universities until 2000 = 74 universities
Total universities as of 2010 = 125 universities

51 new Universities established between 2000 - 2010
Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey

The world is in motion and the most interesting regions to watch how re-organization of the power-balance plays out is the M.East and East-Asia.
The M.East is a conflict-ridden region, and Turkey is the only country without a regional enemy.
Besides the nuclear proliferation issue, there are no countries or non-state actors around threatening the survival of Turkey.
There is simply no convential threat.

It is all about widening of the influence zone and bringing countries under control.
The claim was never to become a China or USA.
Turkey simply won't.
What for China or USA is competition over the world, for Turkey it is regaining as much influence as possible over the former Ottoman provinces, and compensating Turkey's relative small population base with controlling as much as possible in this critical region, so we also have a say in tomorrow's world - at least as a minor voice among biggers in the general world and the loudest voice within the Muslim world.

Now, there will be people claiming, that Turkey is a proxy of Iran or Syria.
These voices come primarily from the Israelian camp, they are trying to influence the USA so USA contains Turkey from meddling in issues like Palestine.
I don't claim, that Turkey currently has the capability to enforce its will in issues like Palestine.
But through widening our infuence in the whole area, we are gaining slowly but steadily a critical mass to condition co-operation with foreign powers like USA on a range of issues on things like Palestine.
The Israelis aren't dumb and they also see where this is heading towards to.


As a last statement:
What is the difference between Iran and Turkey?
1st, Turkey is far more developed based on an industrial economy integrated into the world and in every major organization.
2nd, Turkey is cooperating with Countries be it Shia or Sunní
3rd, Iran's infuence is limited to areas where Shia live and it's main outreach model is non-state actors
4th, Turkey's system the Muslim 'Joe-Public' wants in its own country replacing its dictator-system. They watch our TV series, see in news how a democratically elected Government is speaking out for Muslim issues whilst their leaders are completely silent and don't represent the will of their people.

Things are in motion. To our benefit.
I think, we are on a very good way on this path.
And I don't think, that Iran will ever be bombed.
First, look at the NATO missile defense subject.
Second, once Iran (given it happens in the next years) is run post-clerically, Turkey and Iran would integrate on the lines of German-French model of the last century. This would considerably accelerate to shift the power-balance and I don't think, that anyone like China or USA wants this to happen.

 

[ekrem]

Increasing Number of Greeks Flee to Turkey For a Better Life
VOA | Increasing Number of Greeks Flee to Turkey For a Better Life | Europe | English


Greek faculty members move to Turkey
Greek faculty members move to Turkey - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

 

[hipeter924]

Increasing Number of Greeks Flee to Turkey For a Better Life
VOA | Increasing Number of Greeks Flee to Turkey For a Better Life | Europe | English


Greek faculty members move to Turkey
Greek faculty members move to Turkey - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

It's just one more example of how the EU experiment has failed. I am actually expecting many nations to leave the EU in the near future including Germany and the like (to escape the unpopular debt burden nations like Greece are putting them under).

But the main problem in Greece is that the wealthy never really had to pay tax, in fact average Greeks have had to pay for themselves, the poor, corporate subsidies and the rich combined as tax evasion is a major problem there thus their welfare state was running in the red.

So is it any surprise that Greeks are trying to escape an unfair tax system, and a debt ridden economy and government?

 

[william the wie]

Ekrem while we have to agree to disagree on Indonesia; the big Muslim nations include Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and China; I otherwise agree with you. Also Indonesia controls all of the straits that connect the Indian and Pacific oceans with a huge chunk of the world's trade going through there.

 

[ekrem]

Increasing Number of Greeks Flee to Turkey For a Better Life
VOA | Increasing Number of Greeks Flee to Turkey For a Better Life | Europe | English


Greek faculty members move to Turkey
Greek faculty members move to Turkey - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

It's just one more example of how the EU experiment has failed. I am actually expecting many nations to leave the EU in the near future including Germany and the like (to escape the unpopular debt burden nations like Greece are putting them under).

But the main problem in Greece is that the wealthy never really had to pay tax, in fact average Greeks have had to pay for themselves, the poor, corporate subsidies and the rich combined as tax evasion is a major problem there thus their welfare state was running in the red.

So is it any surprise that Greeks are trying to escape an unfair tax system, and a debt ridden economy and government?

Admiral Antonios Antoniadis, he has served as 'Chief of the Hellenic Navy General Staff' until 17th February 2010.
He writes in Greek (Google Translation)
LINK: Google Translate

I believe that in Greece all those currently consumed in strategic analysis (the media, either the Houses or Cafes), few have realized that the prospect of Greek-Turkish war has ended and that we are definitely the losers.
(...)
We finally open our eyes in the 21 century and realize that the international dimension and the weight of a country is not determined by winning battles and military attacks, but played in international markets.

 

[ekrem]

Voice of Russia - Lavrov hails cultivation of Russian-Turkish ties

The Russian-Turkish trade turnover may stand at 100 billion dollars by year-end, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the first session of the Joint Group for Strategic Planning in Istanbul on Thursday.
Right now, Lavrov said, the two countries are jointly implementing a number of major energy projects, not least the construction of the South Stream gas pipeline and the Akkuya nuclear power plant in Turkey.

 

[ekrem]

Albania and the Ottoman legacy
The Economist


After a century of neglect Turkey wants everyone in this region to know it is back. First of all the Turks have been helping restore buildings and monuments from the Ottoman period, but they have also been helping erect new ones.
In the last decade Turkish schools and universities have also been opening especially in Albania and Bosnia.

In the last year however it has been Turkey’s active foreign policy in the region that seems to be taking Turkey’s return to the Balkans to an altogether new level.
In Bosnia Turkey has been very active in trying to reconcile Serbs and Bosniaks and Serbia’s leaders too are visiting Turkey with ever increasing frequency.

Last week Turkey's prime minister was in both Bosnia and Serbia.
All this is part of what is often dubbed Turkey’s neo-Ottoman foreign policy in its former domains.
(...)
Misha Djurkovic, writing in the leading Serbian daily Politika thinks he knows what it is.
Germany and France do not want Turkey in the EU, and after Croatia Germany does not want the western Balkans either.
So he argues, the west, and the Americans especially, are seeking to compensate Turkey by ceding power and influence in the region to it, especially amongst its Muslims.
“It is of the utmost importance for the Americans and the Europeans that moderate and still secular Turkey should become their leader and protector and not Iran, Indonesia or another even more radical country.”

In two years it will be 100 years since the Ottomans were expelled after their 500 year sojourn in the Balkans.
Now says Mr Djurkovic some are asking whether this trend (if there is one of course,) should be resisted or “we should reorient ourselves and take as many advantages as possible in circumstances we cannot influence.”
From Tirana to Sarajevo and Belgrade to Brussels I expect more and more people to be discussing what neo-Ottomanism means for the Balkans in the coming months and years.

 

[ekrem]

Turkey, Hands Off Bulgaria's Affairs, Will You?
Bulgaria: Turkey, Hands Off Bulgaria's Affairs, Will You? - Novinite.com - Sofia News Agency

(...) the one development that sounded upsetting for the Bulgarian-Turkish relations was the statement of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu that the dispute about the election of the Chief Mufti of the Bulgarian Muslims will be resolved within the friendly relations between Bulgaria and Turkey.
(...)
Because what Davutoglu said was an open and brazen intervention in the internal affairs of Bulgaria (...) because this meant Turkey's self-appointment as their protector.
(...)
To put it briefly and bluntly, despite all niceties and – probably occasionally sincere – good will and well-wishing – the Bulgarian leadership will most likely find itself forced to seek ways to balance a resurgent Turkey – however small, scarce, and inadequate Bulgarian resources for that might be.
Whether Bulgaria would have to go down that road will largely depend on Turkey's behavior as an emerging regional hegemon. Is Turkey going to be a benevolent regional superpower, and if so, can it really make its neighbors such as Bulgaria believe that?
(...)
But at the end of the day, it all boils down to the fact that no matter how large and powerful it becomes, Turkey must be asked politely to please keep its hands off other nation's business. Even though the hopes that Turkey won't seek to transfer its growth into influence and dominance abroad might seem naïve (...)