RED ALERT - Tornadoes in NYC Sunday and Tuesday

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by DavidS, Apr 16, 2009.

  1. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    [ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcVe2k4GpKg&feature=related[/ame]

    Upton:

    .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
    -- Changed Discussion --
    GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND IN THE
    FORECAST FROM HERE ON OUT. THE BACK DOOR FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE
    AREA SUNDAY...AND BECOMES AN AVENUE FOR A POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH
    MOVES IN MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO RUN SOME 15 DEG COOLER
    THAN SATURDAY.

    THE FLOW VEERS TO EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF
    THE SYSTEM MONDAY.

    THE GFS/EC/GGEM ARE SIMILAR IN INTENSITY AND THE DYNAMICAL SETUP
    OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. THE TREND
    IN THESE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY
    AFTERNOON...WITH THE GGEM THE SLOWEST. BASED ON THIS
    CONSENSUS...POPS WERE SLIGHTLY SCALED BACK ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
    INCREASED TO LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

    WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
    BE AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DUAL
    JET COUPLET ALOFT...AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING JUST ABOVE THE
    BOUNDARY LAYER.

    THE REGION LOOKS TO GET SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
    TUESDAY...WHICH IMPLIES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
    AGAIN...TO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN OUTLOOKS BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE
    NEXT FEW RUNS VERY CLOSELY.

    COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
    BUILDING IN BY WED EVENING.
    -- End Changed Discussion --


    &&

    Ron-NJ
     

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