[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcVe2k4GpKg&feature=related[/ame] Upton: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion -- GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND IN THE FORECAST FROM HERE ON OUT. THE BACK DOOR FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...AND BECOMES AN AVENUE FOR A POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH MOVES IN MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO RUN SOME 15 DEG COOLER THAN SATURDAY. THE FLOW VEERS TO EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM MONDAY. THE GFS/EC/GGEM ARE SIMILAR IN INTENSITY AND THE DYNAMICAL SETUP OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. THE TREND IN THESE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GGEM THE SLOWEST. BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS...POPS WERE SLIGHTLY SCALED BACK ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND INCREASED TO LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DUAL JET COUPLET ALOFT...AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE REGION LOOKS TO GET SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY...WHICH IMPLIES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AGAIN...TO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN OUTLOOKS BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE NEXT FEW RUNS VERY CLOSELY. COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING IN BY WED EVENING. -- End Changed Discussion -- && Ron-NJ
