Recession Ended June 2009

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According the official daters of the business cycle, the NBER, the recession ended in June 2009.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

That doesn't mean the economy is great, or has recovered to where it was before the recession, or that we aren't going to slip into another recession. It just means that the recession technically ended last summer.
 
According the official daters of the business cycle, the NBER, the recession ended in June 2009.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

That doesn't mean the economy is great, or has recovered to where it was before the recession, or that we aren't going to slip into another recession. It just means that the recession technically ended last summer.

The technical recession may have ended but the psychological recession (the one in the minds of the populace) is still alive and strong and this feeling is driven by the unemployment numbers staying way above average at over 9%.

Like you said it doesn't mean we wont do the dreaded "double dip" but hopefully we dont.
 
i think it makes the term double dip improper.

If we have another recession in the next few years you can still call it a double dip unless we get more than 2 quaters of positive growth between them. I think thats how the definition works anyway.

Did we have positive growth in the last 2 quaters.....it doesn't feel like it but my first post might explain my impressions ;).
 
United-States-GDP-Growth-Rate-Chart-000002.png


Which direction are things going in again? Sure looks like for awhile now the rate of GDP growth has been shrinking. Not yet Negative but clearly not going in the right direction.

By the strictest definition of the word recession they are correct. Funny though when bush was in office an we had positive but very slow growth. The left told us that you can not focus on GDP rate alone. That factors such as job growth, Wage growth, and consumer confidence had to be figured in.

Today they want to focus only on the GDP and say look the recession is over.

hmmmm
 
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i think it makes the term double dip improper.

If we have another recession in the next few years you can still call it a double dip unless we get more than 2 quaters of positive growth between them. I think thats how the definition works anyway.

Did we have positive growth in the last 2 quaters.....it doesn't feel like it but my first post might explain my impressions ;).

According to the NBER we had almost 5 Qs of positive growth so far.
 
i think it makes the term double dip improper.

If we have another recession in the next few years you can still call it a double dip unless we get more than 2 quaters of positive growth between them. I think thats how the definition works anyway.

Did we have positive growth in the last 2 quaters.....it doesn't feel like it but my first post might explain my impressions ;).

According to the NBER we had almost 5 Qs of positive growth so far.

Yep and in 4 of those months the rate growth Decreased as compared to the month before it. I ask again, is that "going in the right direction"

If the trend line continues as it is in the graph on GDP I posted this next time it is reported, or the time after that. We will be in Negative growth again.
 
United-States-GDP-Growth-Rate-Chart-000002.png


Which direction are things going in again? Sure looks like for awhile now the rate of GDP growth has been shrinking. Not yet Negative but clearly not going in the right direction.

By the strictest definition of the word recession they are correct. Funny though when bush was in office an we had positive but very slow growth. The left told us that you can not focus on GDP rate alone. That factors such as job growth, Wage growth, and consumer confidence had to be figured in.

Today they want to focus only on the GDP and say look the recession is over.

hmmmm

This isn't the left or right speaking, it is the anal and apolitical NBER. (National Bureau of Economic Research)

They are speaking in the most technical possible sense in making this pronouncement.
 
According the official daters of the business cycle, the NBER, the recession ended in June 2009.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

That doesn't mean the economy is great, or has recovered to where it was before the recession, or that we aren't going to slip into another recession. It just means that the recession technically ended last summer.

no, its technically not a recession,by the very definition of word itself.


We need a new 'word'....
 
Yep and in 4 of those months the rate growth Decreased as compared to the month before it. I ask again, is that "going in the right direction"

Qs, not months. Yes the inertia is negative while growth is still positive. But that is still misleading. The first 15-20 months of the recession were all characterized by wild corrections and over reactions.

This moment is the calm after the storm when a new normal establishes itself.
 
United-States-GDP-Growth-Rate-Chart-000002.png


Which direction are things going in again? Sure looks like for awhile now the rate of GDP growth has been shrinking. Not yet Negative but clearly not going in the right direction.

By the strictest definition of the word recession they are correct. Funny though when bush was in office an we had positive but very slow growth. The left told us that you can not focus on GDP rate alone. That factors such as job growth, Wage growth, and consumer confidence had to be figured in.

Today they want to focus only on the GDP and say look the recession is over.

hmmmm

This isn't the left or right speaking, it is the anal and apolitical NBER. (National Bureau of Economic Research)

They are speaking in the most technical possible sense in making this pronouncement.


I know that. My comment about the left was because they now seem to be willing to talk about what we have now as a recovery when with the same growth rates under Bush they called it a recession.

The trend does not lie we are heading toward negative growth again if nothing changes.
 
According the official daters of the business cycle, the NBER, the recession ended in June 2009.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.

Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

That doesn't mean the economy is great, or has recovered to where it was before the recession, or that we aren't going to slip into another recession. It just means that the recession technically ended last summer.

:eusa_eh:


:eusa_eh:


:eusa_eh:


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Consumer confidence looks like Wyle E Coyote falling off the cliff.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hz65AOjabtM]YouTube - Wile E. Coyote vs Road Runner[/ame]
 
I know that. My comment about the left was because they now seem to be willing to talk about what we have now as a recovery when with the same growth rates under Bush they called it a recession.

The trend does not lie we are heading toward negative growth again if nothing changes.

No harm, no foul. We do need better words. 1-2% GDP growth oughtta be a recession not a correction.
 
United-States-GDP-Growth-Rate-Chart-000002.png


if you look at the chart you can plainly see where the Recession ended. You can see the Blip of Positive growth that 1 Trillion in spending bought and you can see that things are now slipping back into recession.

Funny that is exactly what many of us said would happen. The spending of the Stimulus was aimed at feel good short term growth. It failed to generate significant private sector growth which is more long term. The people who passed it were hoping it would generate a bigger blip and things would be better before this election, but they knew what they were doing would not spawn significant private sector growth. Or if they did not know that, they are fools.
 
It failed to generate significant private sector growth which is more long term. The people who passed it were hoping it would generate a bigger blip and things would be better before this election, but they knew what they were doing would not spawn significant private sector growth. Or if they did not know that, they are fools.

Well maybe. Conventional wisdom says that the economy always grows interupted by short periods of correction. Boom and bust. The ageless natural cycle of economies, like winter/summer.

I think a lot of very smart economists haven't yet come to terms with "this time is different". Krugman for one.
 
It failed to generate significant private sector growth which is more long term. The people who passed it were hoping it would generate a bigger blip and things would be better before this election, but they knew what they were doing would not spawn significant private sector growth. Or if they did not know that, they are fools.

Well maybe. Conventional wisdom says that the economy always grows interupted by short periods of correction. Boom and bust. The ageless natural cycle of economies, like winter/summer.

I think a lot of very smart economists haven't yet come to terms with "this time is different". Krugman for one.

Yep.

I may be wrong but my take is that we were due for a much more major down ward correction. The massive amount of spending simply stopped it for a bit, cause a bounce and now we are heading back down to an even lower bottom than it would have been.

Moral. Shovel Ready and government jobs and massive bail outs for State Budgets do not generate Private sector Growth, and only the private sector can generate and sustain GPD growth. Period.
 
According the official daters of the business cycle, the NBER, the recession ended in June 2009.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday by conference call. At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in June 2009. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in December 2007 and the beginning of an expansion. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II. Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973-75 and 1981-82, both of which lasted 16 months.
Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Economic Research

That doesn't mean the economy is great, or has recovered to where it was before the recession, or that we aren't going to slip into another recession. It just means that the recession technically ended last summer.

That makes me feel so much better.
 

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