Reasoned Essay That Bush Will Win-By A Lot

[Annie]

May be right, may be wrong, but getting my day off to a good start. Very long, for political junkies only:

http://www.denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/07/Amasterstroke.shtml

I don't know exactly when the Republican campaign will finally get serious. It doesn't seem likely they'll wait until October, so my best guess is it will be in September some time.

And I am pretty confident that when they do really get serious, the consequences for the Kerry campaign will be catastrophic. After the November election, a lot of people are going to wonder why it was that anyone ever thought that Kerry had a substantial chance of winning.

And part of the reason it's going to go so badly for Kerry is that there is very careful low-level preparation going on.

In the run up to the invasion of Iraq last year, there was broad consensus among observers (including me) that there would be one to two weeks of air preparation before ground ops began (which was still viewed as a radical change compared to the six weeks of air preparation before ground action in 1991). CENTCOM crossed everyone up when it began ground operations on the first day of active hostilities.

It turned out that CENTCOM had already done most of the important air preparation in the previous year, slowly, gradually, subtly. Some of that hit the news (e.g. a bombing attack that took out a critical fiber communications junction and cut off telecommunications between Baghdad and southern Iraq) but most of it did not.

I can see hints of that kind of careful preparation being done politically and diplomatically, which will turn out to be critical for the campaign. I think that some of Bush's international actions recently have been partially intended to undermine Kerry.

 

[Hobbit]

Don't you see? Voting for Kerry is useless, and every liberal is hardwired to NOT voted for Bush, so the choice is clear. Vote Baggins/Gamgee in '04. We stand for the brewing of fine ales, the smoking of pipeweed, and the destruction of evil artifacts. The Shirefolk party gave huge support to Rohan and Gondor in the War on Evil. Although no Shirefolk were at the Battle of Helm's Deep, there were many allies of the Shirefolk, and during Helm's Deep, two representatives of the Shirefolk were rallying the army that would devastate Isengard, securing monarchy for the western world. The choice is clear, a vote for Shirefolk is a vote for the future, and a vote for the future is a vote for the children. You don't hate children, do you?

Baggins/Gamgee '04

 

[nycflasher]

Don't you see? Voting for Kerry is useless, and every liberal is hardwired to NOT voted for Bush, so the choice is clear. Vote Baggins/Gamgee in '04. We stand for the brewing of fine ales, the smoking of pipeweed, and the destruction of evil artifacts. The Shirefolk party gave huge support to Rohan and Gondor in the War on Evil. Although no Shirefolk were at the Battle of Helm's Deep, there were many allies of the Shirefolk, and during Helm's Deep, two representatives of the Shirefolk were rallying the army that would devastate Isengard, securing monarchy for the western world. The choice is clear, a vote for Shirefolk is a vote for the future, and a vote for the future is a vote for the children. You don't hate children, do you?

Baggins/Gamgee '04