Really FINE WAPO write-up on Colorado, worth reading, imo

[Statistikhengst]

What Colorado s elections this year could say about 2016 - The Washington Post

Over the next nine days, the focus in Colorado will be on the competitive Senate race between Democratic Sen. Mark Udall and his challenger, Republican Rep. Cory Gardner, and on the gubernatorial contest that pits Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper against former Republican congressman Bob Beauprez.

The results will have immediate consequences for the balance of power in Washington and the statehouses over the next two years. But the 2016 implications will also be noteworthy. Few states with competitive contests this fall will say more about Republican opportunities to shake up the electoral map in two years than Colorado.

On the color-coded maps of America, it has been classified as purple, a swing state and key presidential battleground.

I agree. Colorado is a state up-and-coming in terms of electoral firepower in national politics, and Colorado is the one state in current 2016 polling where Hillary Clinton (D) is NOT doing well.

In fact, in my series of Hillary vs. the GOP field, I have noted repeatedly that Colorado is probably the lowest hanging fruit on the tree for the GOP to reclaim, for instance:

2016 Ge Hillary Clinton Vs. Gop Field Part V US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

In the West, also part of a very consistent pattern, Clinton is struggling mightily in Colorado, she has the entire time. If there is a state that the GOP has the best chances of regaining from 2008-2012, it is probably the Rocky Mountain State. Wait and see. There have now been 10 polls of Colorado and 36 matchups, of which Hillary has won 21, the GOP has won 13 and there were two mathematical ties.

The WAPO article has some wrong statistics:

Republicans have not won a major statewide race in Colorado since 2004, when President George W. Bush carried the state in his reelection campaign with 52 percent of the vote. Barack Obama won it with 53 percent in 2008 and carried it again in 2012 with 52 percent.

That's not quite right:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?year=2012&fips=8&f=1&off=0&elect=0&type=state

Obama won Colorado with 53.66% in 2008, which rounds to either 53.7% or to 54%, but not down to 53%.
And in 2012, Obama won Colorado with 51.45%, which rounds either to 51.5% or down to 51%, but not up to 52. Kind of sloppy of the WAPO to not get this simple stuff right.

But the WAPO article makes some other worth quoting:

Coloradoans’ attitudes are progressive on many social issues — from same-sex marriage to the legalization of marijuana use. But the urban-rural split is real — as the backlash against the gun laws illustrated. Christian conservatives remain a force within the Republican Party.


On fiscal issues, attitudes are not as progressive. Coloradoans have a skeptical view of the federal government, common throughout the intermountain West. Many are sympathetic to the anti-government rhetoric of the right, and as a result there is no reflexive support for Washington.


Also striking this fall is the degree to which Obama’s popularity has declined. In the state where he triumphantly accepted his nomination in 2008, he is no longer welcome. His image among undecided voters is now net negative. Democrats say their 2016 presidential nominee will likely have to separate from Obama to appeal here.


Two structural factors have aided the Democrats’ success in Colorado over the past decade and could continue to do so in the future. One is changing demographics, the other is the strength of the party’s political infrastructure.

The absolute key word being "demographics".




Also, the "webmaster" at electoralvote.com made good note of this article, his very short summary is outstanding, as usual:

Electoral-vote.com

Colorado has two competitive statewide races this year, one for senator and one for governor, and these could be bellwethers for 2016. Republicans have been shut out of statewide victories in Colorado for 10 years. If Colorado is a purple state, it is a bluish purple one. Still, the state is split between urban and rural, progressive and conservative. It supported legalizing marijuana but is also a strong gun-rights state. The state has many young voters and Latino voters. It also has a new vote-by-mail system being used this year for the first time.


All these factors considered, if the Republicans manage to win either the senatorial race or gubernatorial race, it will give them a huge morale boost. If they lose both of them, Colorado may be out of reach in 2016, and without Colorado, the presidency will be a steep climb.

From the 1912 election through the 1968 election (15 election cycles in a row), Colorado held steady at 6 EV. From the 1972 election through the 1980 election, Colorado had 7 EV (3 cycles). From 1984 through 2000 (5 cycles), Colorado had 8 EV. Since 2004 and at least through 2020 (5 cycles minimum) it has and will have 9 EV. So, after 56 years of standing still in terms of electoral firepower, it only took 32 years after that time for Colorado to add half it's electoral value to itself, or to grow by 50%. More than likely, Colorado will have 10 EV as of 2024, putting it on par with the current EV strength of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Missouri. Right now, as a block, Colorado and New Mexico have 15 EV, equal to North Carolina and just barely under that of Georgia and Michigan. The GOP needs those 9 EV back in order to have a workable plan to get to 270, plain and simple. Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona, all of which have sizeable Latino populations, are worth 26 EV, just three EV less than Florida.

And so, watching how 2014 plays out could indeed be interesting.

Compounding the matter is the fact that polling in Colorado has been not very accurate, exactly because the Latino vote has been falsely calculated the last 8 years or so. If the races stay this close, then we may or may not know on election night who has won in Colorado. Wait and see.

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Go read the rest of the write-up, it is very, very good, imo.