"REAL" Unemployment Much Higher...

Discussion in 'Economy' started by IGetItAlready, Aug 3, 2012.

  1. IGetItAlready
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    I know these are numbers many don't even like to consider but they should.

    Real Unemployment Rate Shows Far More Jobless



    "The government's most widely publicized unemployment rate measures only those who are out of a job and currently looking for work. It does not count discouraged potential employees who have quit looking, nor those who are underemployed — wanting to work full-time but forced to work part-time."

    _______________________________________________

    "The numbers in some cases are startling.
    Consider: Nevada's U-6 rate is 22.1 percent, up from just 7.6 percent in 2007. Economically troubled California has a 20.3 percent real rate, while Rhode Island is at 18.3 percent, more than double its 8.3 percent rate in 2007.
    Those numbers compare especially unfavorably to the national rate, high in itself at 14.9 percent though off its record peak of 17.2 percent in October 2009."
     
  2. Moonglow
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    Moonglow Diamond Member

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    Like myself, I was on UE,it ran out and I got another job. But how would the people that do the UER know that?
    Benton County Arkansas, has not only regained the amount of jobs lost, but has a positive job growth market.
     
  3. Nova78
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    Nova78 Silver Member

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    $033edae57b55e87b2fd97436f6ee10ce.jpg I am an idiot , but vote for me cause the private sector is doing fine....
     
  4. onecut39
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    onecut39 VIP Member

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    Oh what a tangled web we weave......................................

    Whenever people go looking for a fight on the economy, be they liberal or conservative, they suddenly find the U6 unemployment index. It has been around forever. It is not commonly used by either the democrats or republicans while they are in power. It is the broadest index for unemployment available. In essence it simply counts all those not working as unemployed.

    Using this index, what is commonly considered full employment on our (U3) index would suddenly become a 10% unemployment rate.

    Should Mitt be elected President the U6 would promptly be jettisoned from Getitalready's consciousness to be replaced with the common U3.

    At this point the liberals would discover the U6 and begin pounding MItt.

    The pointis the U6 is almost never used for the general public. Never has, Never will.
     
  5. IGetItAlready
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    It's easy to ASSUME but I don't see why there is a U3 rating when what really matters is the U6. Left, Right or otherwise, sugar coating the numbers while working on that trite assumption that the people are stupid is offensive.

    Just because most of us don't live and work in Washington doesn't mean we're not capable of handling or entitled to the truth.

    And BTW, I didn't just FIND the U6...it's ALWAYS meant more to me than the edited for public consumption numbers.
     
  6. onecut39
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    onecut39 VIP Member

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    Nice try. The U6 is not used because it does not paint an accurate picture of the unemployment. Why should you count as unemployed someone who does not want, or need work?

    If you were honest you woud tell folks what I did. That the U6 would portray "full" employment as a 10% unemployment rate.

    You are just peddling a line of political crap.
     
  7. IGetItAlready
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    Yap yap yap. Tell me who wants to work and who doesn't and I'll tell you who does and doesn't want healthcare.

    Regardless enlightened one, I'm an adult. Set your arbitrary number for "zero" unemployment and then give me the truth.
    Some of us are capable of handling it...while others seem scared to death of it.
     
  8. B. Kidd
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    B. Kidd Gold Member

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    On this 'economics board', I've quoted econ. #'s from Cuba as well as the U.S..

    For some strange reason, Cubas' #'s get questioned, but rarely the U.S. #'s.

    Go figure???
     
  9. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    It's called statistics...it's been around for a while. A full count every month is obviously just not possible, so every month a survey is done of approximately 60,000 households (yes, that is an adequate number). From the survey results, the total unemployment and employment for the country is estimated. We know that 95% of the time, the Employment level will be off by no more than about 0.4% and the Unemployment level off by no more than 2.9% and the UE rate off by no more than 0.24 percentage points.

    So for June, we can by 95% certain that the "real" Employment level is between 142,592,043 and 143,811,957, the Unemployment level is between 12,802,121and 13,565,879 and the rate is between 8.2% and 8.7%

    However, there are regualr, predictable, seasonal changes that add "noise" to the regression. Accounting for that in Seasonally Adjusted numbers (which show the real changes with less distortion from usual seasonal changes, the Employment level is between 141,604,812 and 142,835,188, Unemployment between 12,417,394 and 13,170,606, and the rate between 8.0% and 8.5%
     
  10. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    First, of course if you classify more people as uneployed the rate will be higher. The question is what would be the methodological reason for including more people?

    Why would you want to classify people not trying to work as unemployed? Why would you want to include people who have jobs as unemployed?

    For example, let's take two workers doing the same job for the same company. One works 35 hours/week, the other 30, both because that's how many hours they want to work. Due to slow business, the 35 hour/week worker has her hours cut down to 30 hours a week. So now, you would call one person working 30 hours a week Unemployed and the other Employed, based solely on what they want to do. Do you really think that makes sense?

    It IS useful to track for "Underutilization." Someone who isn't working as many hours as they could. That's what the U6 measures: the percent of people who could be working more than they are (which means more than 0 for the Unemployed and Marginally attached). But it's NOT a measure of Unemployment.
     

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