Real Unemloyment Rate: 22.5%?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by JBeukema, Oct 21, 2010.

  1. JBeukema
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    JBeukema BANNED

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    U.S. : The Real Underemployment Figure Is 22.5% | World News |Axisoflogic.com


    Perhaps it should clarify 'un-and under-employed?
     
  2. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    they do

     
  3. LiberalNut
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    LiberalNut Member

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    The unemployment number commonly advertised is U3.

    Unemployment is defined as follows in the Resolution concerning statistics of the economically active population, employment, unemployment and underemployment, adopted by the Thirteenth International Conference of Labour Statisticians (Geneva, 1982):

    (1) The "unemployed" comprise all persons above a specified age who during the reference period were:

    (a)
    "without work", i.e. were not in paid employment or self-employment, as defined in paragraph 9;
    (b)
    "currently available for work", i.e. were available for paid employment or self-employment during the reference period; and
    (c)
    "seeking work", i.e. had taken specific steps in a specified reference period to seek paid employment or self-employment. The specific steps may include registration at a public or private employment exchange; application to employers; checking at worksites, farms, factory gates, market or other assembly places; placing or answering newspaper advertisements; seeking assistance of friends or relatives; looking for land, building, machinery or equipment to establish own enterprise; arranging for financial resources; applying for permits and licences, etc.
    (2) In situations where the conventional means of seeking work are of limited relevance, where the labour market is largely unorganized or of limited scope, where labour absorption is, at the time, inadequate, or where the labour force is largely self-employed, the standard definition of unemployment given in subparagraph (1) above may be applied by relaxing the criterion of seeking work.

    (3) In the application of the criterion of current availability for work, especially in situations covered by subparagraph (2) above, appropriate tests should be developed to suit national circumstances. Such tests may be based on notions such as present desire for work and previous work experience, willingness to take up work for wage or salary on locally prevailing terms, or readiness to undertake self-employment activity given the necessary resources and facilities.

    (4) Notwithstanding the criterion of seeking work embodied in the standard definition of unemployment, persons without work and currently available for work who had made arrangements to take up paid employment or undertake self-employment activity at a date subsequent to the reference period should be considered as unemployed.

    (5) Persons temporarily absent from their jobs with no formal job attachment who were currently available for work and seeking work should also be regarded as unemployed in accordance with the standard definition of unemployment. Countries may, however, depending on national circumstances and policies, prefer to relax the seeking work criterion in the case of persons temporarily laid off. In such cases, persons temporarily laid off who were not seeking work but classified as unemployed should be identified as a separate subcategory.

    (6) Students, homemakers and others mainly engaged in non-economic activities during the reference period who satisfy the criteria laid down in subparagraphs (1) and (2) above should be regarded as unemployed on the same basis as other categories of unemployed identified separately, where possible.


    The economist referenced is engaged in mal practice. In all likelyhood, he is being paid by Cato or some other right wing "think tank" to produce bogus numbers.
     
  4. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Here's what Williams does as far as I can tell (he doesn't publish his exact methodology and certainly conducts no surveys): He takes the U-6 and adds approx 5 million. That's his claim as to the number of additional people who would be Marginally attached under the definition from 1974-1994. The bigest problem with that is that there was no definition for Marginally Attached before 1994.

    The Marginally Attached are those who didn't work and hadn't looked for work in the previous 4 weeks but who state they want to work, and could accept a job if offered. Discouraged workers are a subset whose specific reason for not looking is the belief that they would be unsuccessful. Now, these people aren't unemployed because they're not actually trying to work..they're "Not in the Labor Force" along with all others not working or trying to work. The reason they're tracked is because they represent potential labor. Before 1994, only Discouraged Workers were tracked and there were no time limits..the definition was as I've stated. But in 94 an additional qualification was added: that they must have looked for work sometime in the previous 12 months, and this applies to Discouraged Workers and all other Marginally Attached.. This shows the people are probably serious and have made recent efforts. Honestly, does anyone think that someone who hasn't tried to work in 5 years is reliable as to their claims of wanting to work? Some are, but many many aren't. That adds a big statistical bias, so to get as accurate as possible, to show that someone really does want to work and isn't just claiming it, they must have looked in the last year.

    The biggest problem with Williams' work (besides that he's full of shit) is that there are no comparisons. Marginally attached didn't exist before 1994, so you
     
  5. B. Kidd
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    B. Kidd Gold Member

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    Official Las Vegas Valley unemployment rate came out for Sept.......15%. A new record for us.
     
  6. Mini 14
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    Mini 14 Senior Member

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    But I thought Harry was all about saving and creating jobs?

    And he can't even get it done in his backyard?

    Is he ever even in Nevada anymore?
     
  7. boedicca
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    boedicca Uppity Water Nymph Supporting Member

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    Shadowstats is his website:

    Alternate Unemployment Charts


    He adjusts for the long term unemployed that the government no longer counts. And yes, real Unemployment is 22.5%.
     
  8. B. Kidd
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    He's rarely in Nevada since the Ritz-Carlton went out of business at Lake Las Vegas earlier this year :lol:.
     
  9. Sallow
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    Sallow The Big Bad Wolf. Supporting Member

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    S'funny that you guys are so concerned with this now..but not during the Bush administration. Lots of people lost their jobs..but never went on unemployment.
     
  10. Douger
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    When it reaches 35%, think Mad Max.
     

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