Rasmussen: Rand Paul leading by 10 points

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Republican Rand Paul continues to hold a double-digit lead over Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Kentucky shows Paul earning 49% support, while Conway picks up 38% of the vote. Five percent (5%) favor some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Election 2010: Kentucky Senate - Rasmussen Reports

This further shows that SurveyUSA's latest poll which shows Rand only leading by 2 less than a month after their previous poll showed him leading by 15 was entirely as a result of their changing their methodology to one that shows more Democrats coming out to vote for Conway in 2010 than showed up to vote for Obama in 2008. Naturally that's a very unlikely outcome.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

Go get em Rand!

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Rand Paul is a social-con. We don't need any more of them.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen has almost every Republican doing better than the rest of the polls.

That's an odd situation, don't you think?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rand Paul is a social-con. We don't need any more of them.

They're fighting for Jim Bunning's seat. This is not what gets the GOP the Senate.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Rasmussen has almost every Republican doing better than the rest of the polls.

That's an odd situation, don't you think?

Not really. They lean conservative, but they're still one of the most accurate pollsters. Do you think it's strange that SurveyUSA thinks more Democrats are going to show up to vote for Conway in 2010 than voted for Obama in 2008? Now that's something strange, to completely change your methodology to get a completely different result.

 

[R.C. Christian]

Constitutionalists like Rand are considered extremists by the U.S. security apparatus.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen has almost every Republican doing better than the rest of the polls.

That's an odd situation, don't you think?

Not really. They lean conservative, but they're still one of the most accurate pollsters. Do you think it's strange that SurveyUSA thinks more Democrats are going to show up to vote for Conway in 2010 than voted for Obama in 2008? Now that's something strange, to completely change your methodology to get a completely different result.

SurveyUSA actually has as good or better an overall record than Rasmussen.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Rasmussen has almost every Republican doing better than the rest of the polls.

That's an odd situation, don't you think?

Not really. They lean conservative, but they're still one of the most accurate pollsters. Do you think it's strange that SurveyUSA thinks more Democrats are going to show up to vote for Conway in 2010 than voted for Obama in 2008? Now that's something strange, to completely change your methodology to get a completely different result.

SurveyUSA actually has as good or better an overall record than Rasmussen.

It's true that SurveyUSA was the closest in the Presidential election. However, do you honestly think more Democrats are going to show up to vote for Conway in 2010 than did for Obama in 2008? Do you think it makes sense to change your methodology that much?

Of course it doesn't.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Not really. They lean conservative, but they're still one of the most accurate pollsters. Do you think it's strange that SurveyUSA thinks more Democrats are going to show up to vote for Conway in 2010 than voted for Obama in 2008? Now that's something strange, to completely change your methodology to get a completely different result.

SurveyUSA actually has as good or better an overall record than Rasmussen.

It's true that SurveyUSA was the closest in the Presidential election. However, do you honestly think more Democrats are going to show up to vote for Conway in 2010 than did for Obama in 2008? Do you think it makes sense to change your methodology that much?

Of course it doesn't.

You still have to pay to see Rasmussen's crosstabs, right? Kind of hard to do comparative analysis under that circumstance.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

SurveyUSA actually has as good or better an overall record than Rasmussen.

It's true that SurveyUSA was the closest in the Presidential election. However, do you honestly think more Democrats are going to show up to vote for Conway in 2010 than did for Obama in 2008? Do you think it makes sense to change your methodology that much?

Of course it doesn't.

You still have to pay to see Rasmussen's crosstabs, right? Kind of hard to do comparative analysis under that circumstance.

I'm comparing SurveyUSA's polls together. They said in early September that Rand Paul was leading by 15 points, and less than a month later they said he's only leading by 2 points. Now we can assume that Conway did something to make up that ground, but there wasn't really anything specific to point to. What we can look at are the two completely opposing methodologies used in the two polls.

We can also look at the fact that Rasmussen also came out a week after SurveyUSA's 15 point lead poll and said the exact same thing, Rand Paul leads by 15. Now, a week after SurveyUSA's 2 point lead poll Rasmussen releases a poll that says Rand is leading by 10 points. So clearly there's a huge discrepancy, and that discrepancy is SurveyUSA's methodology.