Rasmussen Most Accurate of Political Pollsters?

[Sinatra]

Rasmussen appears to enjoy a long record of accuracy and consistency - and has certainly been the frontrunner in some of the most recent important political races throughout the country...
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Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”

The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown's upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: “It was polling—not journalistic reporting—that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy.” Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show Joe Sestak catching Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary race this year.

In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!”

In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.

We also have provided a summary of our 2008 state-by-state presidential results for your review.

In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by


Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports

 

[boedicca]

Rasmussen polls likely voters, not just adults - which is more compatible with predicting election results.

 

[Sinatra]

Rasmussen polls likely voters, not just adults - which is more compatible with predicting election results.

It would appear the results would show that to be true - very accurate polling over the years.

And so one must assume that the Obama White House and the Democrat Congress are quite concerned with Rasmussen showing November 2010 to be a landslide victory for conservatives in America...

 

[boedicca]

They are freakin' out.

 

[martybegan]

DailyKos seems to have something against Rassmussen for some reason. They always show it seperately, as it tends to skew Republican.

 

[Sinatra]

They are freakin' out.

As so clearly seen by the White House going into panic mode to demand the resignation of some USDA lady because of a blog and fear of a Glenn Beck story.

This White House is a new disaster every week...

 

[Sinatra]

DailyKos seems to have something against Rassmussen for some reason. They always show it seperately, as it tends to skew Republican.

History would indicate Rasmussen "skews" to the actual election outcomes - and that the other pollsters most often play catch up to them...

 

[KMAN]

Thanks to Fox News and the internet the liberal media no longer has a strangle hold on what news gets out and voters are becoming more informed... That's why Democrats are trying to shut down Fox News, talk radio, and trying to regulate the internet.

It's gotta say something for your party when you have to hide and manipulate news to get your party elected.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Rasmussen appears to enjoy a long record of accuracy and consistency - and has certainly been the frontrunner in some of the most recent important political races throughout the country...
__

Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”

The Pew Center noted that Rasmussen Reports beat traditional media in covering Scott Brown's upset win in Massachusetts earlier this year: “It was polling—not journalistic reporting—that caught the wave in the race to succeed Massachusetts Senator Edward M. Kennedy.” Rasmussen Reports was also the first to show Joe Sestak catching Arlen Specter in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary race this year.

In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!”

In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.

We also have provided a summary of our 2008 state-by-state presidential results for your review.

In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports polling projected that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. We were the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by


Daily Presidential Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports

Why do they always manage to conveniently omit the fact that they, Rasmussen, had George Bush winning in 2000 by 9 POINTS?

 

[Modbert]

Why do they always manage to conveniently omit the fact that they, Rasmussen, had George Bush winning in 2000 by 9 POINTS?

Or Rasmussen himself writing articles for World Net Daily. Home of the Birther Conspiracy Theory.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Rasmussen polls likely voters, not just adults - which is more compatible with predicting election results.

It would appear the results would show that to be true - very accurate polling over the years.

And so one must assume that the Obama White House and the Democrat Congress are quite concerned with Rasmussen showing November 2010 to be a landslide victory for conservatives in America...

It is of more than passing interest that Rasmussen and Gallup have shown exact opposite results for the generic ballot:

"We’ve got two polls: Gallup’s which shows a huge swing for the Democrats giving the incumbents a 49-43 lead, mirroring the Republicans’ big lead in May.

We also have Rasmussen’s which continues to shows the Republicans ahead, giving the challengers a 45-36 lead, the biggest in a month.

If we boil these numbers down to the usual two-party splits, here’s what we see:

Category D R
2008 two party split 56 44
Rasmussen two party split July 18 44 56
Gallup two party split July 19 53 47

Enter the Swingometer: Rasmussen takes us from D+12 to R+12 for a 24 point swing to the Republicans, a 64 seat Republican gain, and a 242 R-193 D House majority for the GOP.

Gallup, meanwhile, takes us from D+12 to D+6 for a 6 point swing to the Republicans, an 18 seat Republican gain, and a 239 D-196 R House majority for the Democrats.

So the predicted results are nearly mirror images of each other. Fascinating."

Rasmussen and Gallup generic ballots diverge | RedState

 

[Toro]

Sinatra posts testaments about an organization from an organization's own website. Nothing unbiased about that!

They were one of the worst pollsters in 2000.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Blast from Rasmussen's Past

They were also recently less accurate than ABC/WaPost, NBC/WSJ, Mason-Dixon, Pew, and Gallup, amongst others.

FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Pollster Ratings v4.0: Results