Rasmussen: Iowa - Romney 49, Obama 48

[TheGreatGatsby]

Election 2012: Iowa President - Rasmussen Reports™

Losing Iowa would be a big blow to Obama. By my calculations, pre-New Hampshire, that'd put Romney at 263. If Romney then won Nevada, he'd be at 269 and ensure a minimum of a tie.

 

[AceRothstein]

Romney has no chance in Nevada. He has led there in ONE poll all year and that was in April.

 

[elvis]

Tied

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Romney has no chance in Nevada. He has led there in ONE poll all year and that was in April.

I've all but written off Nevada. The SEIU and the mobs control the voting machines in Nevada. Harry Reid was supposed to easily lose his election, but they handled it. And that's why they gave him a beatdown when he didn't take some marching orders. That said, it's still close, so we'll see.

 

[auditor0007]

All the movement is heading towards Obama. In the national polls, Obama now leads in all of them except for Gallup which stopped reporting. Rasmussen just moved from Romney +2 to tie. Over the weekend you will see this movement continue. Obama will end up winning the popular vote by three or four points. I've said all along that we would see a hard break one way or the other in the final days. Conventional thinking stated that the undecideds usually break for the challenger, but this year is different. People don't like Romney and with the decent jobs report and Obama's handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, everything is going the president's way.

Romney's attempt at going after Pennsylvania has nothing to do with him expanding the field because he feels confident he's going to win everywhere else. It is a Hail Mary, because that is all he has left. Internal polls usually show these movements before the public polls. Romney has seen the writing on the wall. Come Tuesday, I believe you will see Obama take every swing state. The only exception might be NC, but I'm going out on a limb and saying Obama will even take NC. Maybe I'm just full of hot air, but this does seem to be the direction this election is heading.

 

[mamooth]

If Ras says +1, that means Obama is at +5 in Iowa. Rasmussen has that consistent 4 point Republican bias in its state polls.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Come Tuesday, I believe you will see Obama take every swing state. The only exception might be NC.

Of all the hack things you bloviated about; this has to be the biggest hack thing you said. You were at least tip toeing along the line of reality before that.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

If Ras says +1, that means Obama is at +5 in Iowa. Rasmussen has that consistent 4 point Republican bias in its state polls.

Your math fails you. It'd be plus 3 for Obama.

I expect Romney voters to be very energized and I give him about 70 percent chance of winning the state.

 

[mamooth]

Your math fails you. It'd be plus 3 for Obama.

Hey, you got something right! Well done.

I expect Romney voters to be very energized and I give him about 70 percent chance of winning the state.

Recent Iowa polls:

Obama +4.0 Gravis Marketing
Obama +3.0 CallFire
Obama +5.0 PPP
Romney +1.0 Rasmussen
Obama +1.5 We Ask America
Obama +6.0 NBC/Marist
Obama +1.7 U. Iowa

Good luck with your faith in a surprise turnout.

 

[RoadVirus]

Romney has no chance in Nevada. He has led there in ONE poll all year and that was in April.

What do you expect from a state that re-elected Harry Reid?

 

[copsnrobbers]

Record turnout coming.. and not from the moochers. Middle America is on a mission.
The polls are wrong, all of them.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Record turnout coming.. and not from the moochers. Middle America is on a mission.
The polls are wrong, all of them.

This is what I believe. But demographics are always tough to predict nonetheless.

 

[Missourian]

Romney will win Iowa...no doubt about it.

 

[JoeB131]

Romney will win Iowa...no doubt about it.

Romney has never won in Iowa.

He lost to Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012.

They just don't like the guy.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Romney will win Iowa...no doubt about it.

Romney has never won in Iowa.

He lost to Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012.

They just don't like the guy.

You keep pretending primaries and presidential elections are the same thing.

Also, Mister Liar. You know damn well that Romney and Obama are running neck and neck in Iowa. So, how about you cut out the cheap analysis for a change. It'd be refreshing for you to use your brain just once.

 

[JoeB131]

Romney will win Iowa...no doubt about it.

Romney has never won in Iowa.

He lost to Huckabee in 2008 and Santorum in 2012.

They just don't like the guy.

You keep pretending primaries and presidential elections are the same thing.

Also, Mister Liar. You know damn well that Romney and Obama are running neck and neck in Iowa. So, how about you cut out the cheap analysis for a change. It'd be refreshing for you to use your brain just once.

Polls showed Romney leading in both 2008 and 2012 in the primaries, and he still ended up losing at the last minute.

Point is, there are a lot of Evangelicals in Iowa who still think Mormons are evil (which, of course, they are) who will show up at the last moment.

Also, the Democrat has won Iowa 4 of the last five presidential elections. RCP has Obama leading by 2 points even with LiarRasmussen in the mix and Nate Silver has him at a 3.1 lead with an 81% chance of winning the state.

Romney's best chance- what little he has - is to win Ohio, Virginia and Colorado. If he loses any one of those three, he's done.

And he has no margin of error. That assumes he takes NC and FL.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Poor ex-mormon Joe. Tries to turn everything into the Mormon's fault.

 

[JoeB131]

Poor ex-mormon Joe. Tries to turn everything into the Mormon's fault.

Sorry, man, Ex-Catholic.

As retarded as Catholicism is, Mormonism makes it seem almost rational.

 

[Old Rocks]

Iowa President Obama 2.0 5 polls, 3 Obama, 2 Romney

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Iowa: Romney vs. Obama

Ohio President Obama 2.9 10 polls, 9 Obama, one tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Ohio: Romney vs. Obama

Colorado President Obama 1.0 8 polls, 5 Obama, 2 Romney, one tie

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Colorado: Romney vs. Obama

Really, no way Romney is going to win at this point.