Discussion in 'Economy' started by DavidS, Feb 27, 2009.
The original estimate was -3.8%
Today's revision.... -6.2%
I read the downward revision was to -5.4%. Where did you get -6.2%?
Steep GDP Revision Puts Economic Contraction at 6.2% - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com
Anyone have GDP in the 1980s?
The graph is PDF ergo too hard to bring into the site but there's the BEA's accounting of it
GDP and Other Major NIPA Series, 19292006:II
I am predicitng a loss of about 7-10% of our GDP this year b4 this economic shit hole ends
We had a similar decline under Carter, but that was because Jimmy did something stupid and the economy rebounded the next quarter. What he did, I cannot remember.
Q1 is going to be bad too. Q2 and Q3 will be better though will probably still decline.
difference between now and carter was
Reagan inherited double digit unemployment and double digit inflation
A huge problem we are facing, and one that is faced during all recessions, is the downward spiral in the lack of confidence of consumers. Many companies are losing money and most are laying off workers. But look at this example:
PC Maker Dell Profit Sinks 48 PercentAP
posted: 4 HOURS 38 MINUTES AGOcomments: 16filed under: Earnings, Tech NewsPrintShare
Text SizeAAA(Feb. 26) - Dell Inc. said Thursday its profit dove 48 percent during the fiscal fourth quarter as the recession forced consumers and businesses to spend less on technology. The company also said it expects to make further cuts to its work force.
Earnings for the quarter that ended Jan. 30 sank to $351 million, or 18 cents per share, from $679 million, or 31 cents per share.
PC Maker Dell Profit Sinks 48 Percent - AOL Money & Finance
We all know the economy is bad, but this makes things look worse than they are. Dell actually had a profit of $351 million for the quarter despite the terrible economy. This should be good news, but all we see is that profits are down 48%, something to be viewed at negatively.
Things are bad enough as they are, and we all know that. Putting a positive spin on half way decent news would help consumer confidence, and that is what is needed to help turn the tide.
The current downturn is mostly overplayed--to make it look dramatic. Reagan, in constrast, inherited an economy in collapse, and proceeded to keep it looking dramatic. Carter inflation was created out of borrowing, in ecess of the private sector to repay it. Prices would rise, wherever possible.
Inflation abated, but unemployment rose. It would barely come down in the following years: But banks would fail at the rate of dozens per month, the deficit soared, the federal procurements went largely to the military sector--and social spending was reduced--and the stock market finally crashed in 1987.
Under Bush I, Term I, unemployment would rise again. Reagan Bush I set the tone and the pattern of Bush II, Terms I and II--of a stock market crash coming in, Two Failed Tax Cuts--Exploding the deficit beyond Nancy Reagan's wildest imagination--and finally two phony procurement wars against 19 dead no-acccounts, from 9/11. In Reagan Bush I, minority youth were left behind to shoot it out on the streets, The Move-On.Org types would rake in the bucks from some perverse nature of "youth sub-culture," and cashed in on music, styles, and fads, and movies and dance crazes and "street" level "charming" things. In Bush II, Terms I and II, it would rely more heavily: Simply on the WarBucks Aplenty, and Sub-Prime Bucks Aplenty--personally caused by each of them.
Under Bush I, 40,000 Minority Youth every Sunday, Would arrive on Venice Beach, In California, after about 4:00 P.M: For the Cracker City Sunday Gangland Social Hour, Starring All of the "Charming People," From All of the Hoods of all of Los Angeles.
The Crisis of Confidence In The Economy, that never materialized under Reagan Bush Bush--went and and on for nearly twenty years. The deficits all became a permanent way of life. The Ivy League Obamas could generate campaign cash in the hundreds of millions--denigrating white and black people alike! White people were known as "bitter clingers," in contrast with the adult, male, "childish" black boys: Of the now-famous Obama Campaign.
Reverend Ministers of the Gospel: Would be compelled to a cajones-cutting, frame of mind: Even then.
But recently, most of the 3.6 mil. job losses have only occurred in a recent few weeks. Bush II crashed the market, just like Reagan. Mega-giant institutions finally failed. Everything holy was frozen. But even all of that(?), there hasn't been time enough to create the "crisis of confidence" that never materialized when the same Ivy League were behind Reagan-Bush--killing off minorities just like the Obama, supportive Ivy League.
In April, 150 mil. employed will get a take-home raise totalling about $2.25 bil. per week. That off-sets the paycheck loss of the 3.6 mil jobs all of last year, all by itself. The Stimulus Projects funding kicks in after that. The Stimulus Funding of the dramatic drop in fuel prices is already under way.
Retailers have noticed a slight uptick in same-store sales, over last year, already.
The crisis of confidence that never materialized in Reagan-Bush I, or in Bush II, even has yet to start yet to materialize: Only in the recent few weeks since the current downturn got started big-time.
No crisis of confidence is likely to occur in months to come.
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