Q3 GDP Growth Pushed Up to 2.7%

[Trajan]

I am or was surprised - then I saw the snip at the bottom from the BEA (hattip H.A.), re: the Governments heavy injection/influence (on a comparative basis to Q2), the point being the gov.'s ability to influence the economy is about to be massively curtailed even of the sequester is evened out, there are cuts coming.


GDP Growth Pushed Up to 2.7%-snip


The U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter as restocking by businesses provided a big boost, but consumer and business spending were revised lower in a sobering reminder of the recovery's underlying weakness.


Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.7 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, as export growth also helped to offset the weakest consumer spending and first drop in business investment in more than a year.

While the growth pace was much quicker than the 2 percent rate the government estimated last month and the best since the fourth quarter of 2011, it was hardly a sign of strength as the lift from inventories will likely be lost in the fourth quarter.

more at-
GDP Growth Pushed Up to 2.7%; Jobless Claims Slip - US Business News - CNBC



snip, page 2-


Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.5 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second. National defense increased 12.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondefense increased 3.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.0 percent.


http://content.govdelivery.com/atta...38/Gross+Domestic+Product+%28Oct.+2012%29.pdf

 

[Sallow]

My company's been picking up clients left and right.

Apparently there's a great deal of speculation things are going to pick up soon.

 

[mascale]

In 2011, the planetary disasters created a better second half, subsequent the slowing first half. In 2012, the disasters have been back all year long. As a consequence of emergency spending, then other spending is picking up. Housing is improving. House Prices are improving as assets. Consumer Confidence is at a high-point. Then retail sales improved even though the November Surprise of yet another epic event--impacted November sales overall.

Now the November storm is regarded worse than originally estimated. First half economic improvement will easily get a further boost from all that Corporate Insurance--and other corporate money--sitting on the sidelines.

The betting on Romney-Ryan first winning, then getting things moving in the second half of next year: Got a jolt. Now corporate hoarding is about to look self-defeating. Romney -Ryan supporters had high hopes for a de-regulated civilization. Actually, Haiti and East Africa are backward, being unregulated economies. Most do not aspire to the "Dream," or however RNC describes Lincoln's Liberian Movement! Mostly, White Civilization is actually regulated. Even with the minorities starting to become in charge, even those regulators will help to get the insurance money spent!

First they need only to get the Ivy League: Past all that. The Ivy League is the cause of the 47% of Bitter Clingers who lost the house in the foreclosure, their life-savings in the crash, and their jobs in the Great Recession of the Ivy League! Once they get past the Ivy League, then soon there may even be "student loan regulation." Likely the jokes are being swapped in the
White House Private Dining Room, over luncheon fare. Unless the private luncheon was a "gift" from Obama, then presumably Romney brought the appropriate credit card(?). . .if Republicans even do that(?)! After all, most the cash is actually. . . .well!

In California, now that the Democrats, and their minorities, run everything: Even health insurance is way more likely to be more regulated, just like auto and other insurance in that state. Anthem Health wants to gouge California individual policy holders, 18% more next year. Even before 2014, The Obama Exchange concept may get a regulatory boost in California: Free to compete, as long as they don't. The Anthem Health Insurance premium increase can easily trigger a statewide demand for addtional congruence among the insurance regulations in that state. Insurance regulators control some prices, but not the health insurance pricing, in California. . .so far.

Summarizing that: A national example is about to be noticed in the California context of the insurance exchanges. "Free To Compete" is about insurance companies setting prices, where regulation is likely to be the way more necessary need.

As in "Back to Single-Payer," it becomes cheaper to go.

In California, at least there will be Democrats around, when everyone needs them!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Soon Many Flee, to even Colorado: Where air will become less clear than it is in California(?)! "The air is about to become a lot less clear in Aspen--Indoors and Outdoors, to Boot," or something(?)! "Rocky Mountain High. . .Regulation(?)!")

 

[Norman]

The growth is all based on government debt, and investment is down.

This doesn't mean much good for the long term...

 

[Rshermr]

In 2011, the planetary disasters created a better second half, subsequent the slowing first half. In 2012, the disasters have been back all year long. As a consequence of emergency spending, then other spending is picking up. Housing is improving. House Prices are improving as assets. Consumer Confidence is at a high-point. Then retail sales improved even though the November Surprise of yet another epic event--impacted November sales overall.

Now the November storm is regarded worse than originally estimated. First half economic improvement will easily get a further boost from all that Corporate Insurance--and other corporate money--sitting on the sidelines.

The betting on Romney-Ryan first winning, then getting things moving in the second half of next year: Got a jolt. Now corporate hoarding is about to look self-defeating. Romney -Ryan supporters had high hopes for a de-regulated civilization. Actually, Haiti and East Africa are backward, being unregulated economies. Most do not aspire to the "Dream," or however RNC describes Lincoln's Liberian Movement! Mostly, White Civilization is actually regulated. Even with the minorities starting to become in charge, even those regulators will help to get the insurance money spent!

First they need only to get the Ivy League: Past all that. The Ivy League is the cause of the 47% of Bitter Clingers who lost the house in the foreclosure, their life-savings in the crash, and their jobs in the Great Recession of the Ivy League! Once they get past the Ivy League, then soon there may even be "student loan regulation." Likely the jokes are being swapped in the
White House Private Dining Room, over luncheon fare. Unless the private luncheon was a "gift" from Obama, then presumably Romney brought the appropriate credit card(?). . .if Republicans even do that(?)! After all, most the cash is actually. . . .well!

In California, now that the Democrats, and their minorities, run everything: Even health insurance is way more likely to be more regulated, just like auto and other insurance in that state. Anthem Health wants to gouge California individual policy holders, 18% more next year. Even before 2014, The Obama Exchange concept may get a regulatory boost in California: Free to compete, as long as they don't. The Anthem Health Insurance premium increase can easily trigger a statewide demand for addtional congruence among the insurance regulations in that state. Insurance regulators control some prices, but not the health insurance pricing, in California. . .so far.

Summarizing that: A national example is about to be noticed in the California context of the insurance exchanges. "Free To Compete" is about insurance companies setting prices, where regulation is likely to be the way more necessary need.

As in "Back to Single-Payer," it becomes cheaper to go.

In California, at least there will be Democrats around, when everyone needs them!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Soon Many Flee, to even Colorado: Where air will become less clear than it is in California(?)! "The air is about to become a lot less clear in Aspen--Indoors and Outdoors, to Boot," or something(?)! "Rocky Mountain High. . .Regulation(?)!")

Wow. Great job of posting as many conservative talking points as possible. You win the award for the most drivel in a single post.

 

[Rshermr]

The growth is all based on government debt, and investment is down.

This doesn't mean much good for the long term...

And your proof, of course, is...........Nowhere.

 

[Norman]

The growth is all based on government debt, and investment is down.

This doesn't mean much good for the long term...

And your proof, of course, is...........Nowhere.

It's in the revised numbers. Who would have thought of checking those?

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.5 percent
in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second. National defense increased
12.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondefense increased 3.0 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.0 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.6
percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent.
Equipment and software decreased 2.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 4.8 percent. Real residential
fixed investment increased 14.2 percent, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent.

Of course this is just one GDP report. I am not saying that it could dictate the direction of an economy since the timing could skew things completely. However, the burrow and spend has been the direction of USA for years, not a mere fluctuation.

 

[Truthmatters]

they will never face the facts.

they are brain damaged.


the republican party will have to heave these people to the curb.


The republican party can NOT win elections with these people dragging them arround by the dick

 

[Rshermr]

The growth is all based on government debt, and investment is down.

This doesn't mean much good for the long term...

And your proof, of course, is...........Nowhere.

It's in the revised numbers. Who would have thought of checking those?

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.5 percent
in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second. National defense increased
12.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondefense increased 3.0 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.0 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.6
percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent.
Equipment and software decreased 2.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 4.8 percent. Real residential
fixed investment increased 14.2 percent, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent.

Of course this is just one GDP report. I am not saying that it could dictate the direction of an economy since the timing could skew things completely. However, the burrow and spend has been the direction of USA for years, not a mere fluctuation.

Ah, but you are saying that the growth is based on debt. Nice opinion, but not entirely, or even mostly, true.

 

[MeBelle]

they will never face the facts.

they are brain damaged.


the republican party will have to heave these people to the curb.


The republican party can NOT win elections with these people dragging them arround by the dick

Females have male genitalia?

 

[TakeAStepBack]

Guest Post: Q3 GDP - The Devil Is In The Details | ZeroHedge

Q3 GDP - The Devil Is In The Details

The good news this morning is that the 2nd estimate of the third quarter (3Q) GDP was revised up from 2.0% initially to 2.7%. This is up sharply from the 2Q print of 1.3%. As usual we will dig down into the numbers and look at the changes in the data but it is important to note that, as pointed out by Zero Hedge, Hurricane Sandy had NO EFFECT on the 3Q number as that event did not occur until the end of the 1st month of 4Q. The first chart below shows the gross change in the main components used for the calculation of GDP from Q2 to Q3.

The jump of $89.6 billion in 3Q was driven by a $33.4 billion increase in Personal Consumption (C), a $30.9 billion rise in Private Investment (I), $4.4 billion in Net Exports (X-M) and $21.3 billion in Government Spending (G). The next chart shows the percentage contribution to GDP that each of these primary components made towards the overall economy.

What is important to note is the large share, more than 70%, that the consumer makes up of the domestic economy. The purchase of services currently comprises more than 45% of consumption expenditures. The reason I make this point is that service related consumption has a very low multiplier effect in the economy versus manufacturing and production. The rest of the economy was driven by a 14.15% contribution of private businesses expending capital (notice that housing construction is a very small 2.72% contribution as I discussed yesterday), a negative 2.95% drag from net exports (exports less imports), and a 18.34% contribution from government spending which was primarily state and local.

Read the rest at the link Above.


Ugly Q3 GDP Confirms Personal Consumption Collapsing; Headline "Growth" Driven By Government, Inventory Accumulation | ZeroHedge

One glance at today's second read of Q3 GDP may leave some with the false impression that the US economy is soaring, because after sliding to 1.3% in Q2, and after a preliminary read of 2.0% in the first Q3 estimate, today's print, which missed estimates of a 2.8% print, did nonetheless rise to 2.7%. "A stunning success", the administration sycophants would say. Absolutely wrong. Because a quick glance at the underlying numbers shows the true picture of the economy which contracted far more than most expected, with personal consumption collapsing to 1.4% Q/Q, on hopes of a 1.9% rise, and down from 2.0%. In fact, at 0.99% personal consumption expenditures - the core driver of 70% of the US economy - were a tiny 36% of the headline number. Ironically today's second GDP revision was far worse when analyzed at the component level, than the first Q3 estimate, which while lower overall at 2.0%, at least had personal consumption nearly 50% higher at 1.42%, or well over half of the total contribution. So what drove "growth" in Q3? Nothing short of the most hollow and worst components of GDP: Government Spending, which soared to 0.67% of the annualized number, the first positive print in years, and of course, Inventories, which were responsible for 30% of the headline number. Finally, and most importantly, Fixed Investment, aka CapEx, was a meager 0.1%, or the lowest GDP contribution since Q1 2011. Without CapEx there is no corporate revenue growth (and future hiring intentions) period.

Sadly not even Sandy can be blamed on the collapse in consumption in Q3, for the simple reason that the Hurricane did not hit until 1 month into Q4. Perhaps it is Sandy's fault it did not hit sooner. In the meantime, all those hoping that the US consumer is finally waking up from his slumber and is spending (on credit of course) like a drunken sailor (for anything more than iPads using student loan proceeds), will have to wait until Q1 2013, as the Q4 2012 number will be even uglier than the one just released.

 

[Rshermr]

The growth is all based on government debt, and investment is down.

This doesn't mean much good for the long term...

And your proof, of course, is...........Nowhere.

It's in the revised numbers. Who would have thought of checking those?

Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.5 percent
in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second. National defense increased
12.9 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondefense increased 3.0 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.4 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.4 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.0 percent.

Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.6
percent. Nonresidential structures decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.6 percent.
Equipment and software decreased 2.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 4.8 percent. Real residential
fixed investment increased 14.2 percent, compared with an increase of 8.5 percent.

Of course this is just one GDP report. I am not saying that it could dictate the direction of an economy since the timing could skew things completely. However, the burrow and spend has been the direction of USA for years, not a mere fluctuation.

But here is the thing. You are quoting just part of the article, apparently the part you like. Here is additional analysis in that report:

The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in private inventory investment and in federal government spending, a deceleration in imports, an acceleration in residential fixed investment, and a smaller decrease in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment and decelerations in exports and in PCE.

Real personal consumption expenditures increased 1.4 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.5 percent in the second. Durable goods increased 8.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent. Services increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

The change in real private inventories added 0.77 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP, after subtracting 0.46 percentage point from the second-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $61.3 billion in the third quarter, following increases of $41.4 billion in the second quarter and $56.9 billion in the first.

Both of the above are from:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

Amazing how the picture can become more clear when you see the full quotes. Your quotes were there in full, along with the above paragraphs.

 

[Rshermr]

Guest Post: Q3 GDP - The Devil Is In The Details | ZeroHedge

Q3 GDP - The Devil Is In The Details

The good news this morning is that the 2nd estimate of the third quarter (3Q) GDP was revised up from 2.0% initially to 2.7%. This is up sharply from the 2Q print of 1.3%. As usual we will dig down into the numbers and look at the changes in the data but it is important to note that, as pointed out by Zero Hedge, Hurricane Sandy had NO EFFECT on the 3Q number as that event did not occur until the end of the 1st month of 4Q. The first chart below shows the gross change in the main components used for the calculation of GDP from Q2 to Q3.

The jump of $89.6 billion in 3Q was driven by a $33.4 billion increase in Personal Consumption (C), a $30.9 billion rise in Private Investment (I), $4.4 billion in Net Exports (X-M) and $21.3 billion in Government Spending (G). The next chart shows the percentage contribution to GDP that each of these primary components made towards the overall economy.

What is important to note is the large share, more than 70%, that the consumer makes up of the domestic economy. The purchase of services currently comprises more than 45% of consumption expenditures. The reason I make this point is that service related consumption has a very low multiplier effect in the economy versus manufacturing and production. The rest of the economy was driven by a 14.15% contribution of private businesses expending capital (notice that housing construction is a very small 2.72% contribution as I discussed yesterday), a negative 2.95% drag from net exports (exports less imports), and a 18.34% contribution from government spending which was primarily state and local.

Read the rest at the link Above.


Ugly Q3 GDP Confirms Personal Consumption Collapsing; Headline "Growth" Driven By Government, Inventory Accumulation | ZeroHedge

One glance at today's second read of Q3 GDP may leave some with the false impression that the US economy is soaring, because after sliding to 1.3% in Q2, and after a preliminary read of 2.0% in the first Q3 estimate, today's print, which missed estimates of a 2.8% print, did nonetheless rise to 2.7%. "A stunning success", the administration sycophants would say. Absolutely wrong. Because a quick glance at the underlying numbers shows the true picture of the economy which contracted far more than most expected, with personal consumption collapsing to 1.4% Q/Q, on hopes of a 1.9% rise, and down from 2.0%. In fact, at 0.99% personal consumption expenditures - the core driver of 70% of the US economy - were a tiny 36% of the headline number. Ironically today's second GDP revision was far worse when analyzed at the component level, than the first Q3 estimate, which while lower overall at 2.0%, at least had personal consumption nearly 50% higher at 1.42%, or well over half of the total contribution. So what drove "growth" in Q3? Nothing short of the most hollow and worst components of GDP: Government Spending, which soared to 0.67% of the annualized number, the first positive print in years, and of course, Inventories, which were responsible for 30% of the headline number. Finally, and most importantly, Fixed Investment, aka CapEx, was a meager 0.1%, or the lowest GDP contribution since Q1 2011. Without CapEx there is no corporate revenue growth (and future hiring intentions) period.

Sadly not even Sandy can be blamed on the collapse in consumption in Q3, for the simple reason that the Hurricane did not hit until 1 month into Q4. Perhaps it is Sandy's fault it did not hit sooner. In the meantime, all those hoping that the US consumer is finally waking up from his slumber and is spending (on credit of course) like a drunken sailor (for anything more than iPads using student loan proceeds), will have to wait until Q1 2013, as the Q4 2012 number will be even uglier than the one just released.

And Step, being the con tool that he always is, quotes a bat shit crazy con web site dedicated to showing what cons like to believe. To hell with that non partial analysis eh, Step?

 

[TakeAStepBack]

You are a retard, dude. Seek help. This is too complex for you and isn't a partisan issue. Seriously, you should find something more your speed. Like legos, or action figures.

 

[Rshermr]

You are a retard, dude. Seek help. This is too complex for you and isn't a partisan issue. Seriously, you should find something more your speed. Like legos, or action figures.

Your opinion, step. And you know how much I respect your opinion. Just to much to take, to suggest you use impartial analysis, and impartial sources, eh, Step. Dipshit.

 

[TakeAStepBack]

And yet the pee-brained fucktard that you are, can not refute any of the information i provided. Try again on impartial analysis.

Everytime you post, you look more retarded than you did the time before. That's a feat in and of itself.

 

[Rshermr]

And yet the pee-brained fucktard that you are, can not refute any of the information i provided. Try again on impartial analysis.

Everytime you post, you look more retarded than you did the time before. That's a feat in and of itself.

Try to concentrate, Step. What I am saying is that I do not spend time looking at politically prejudiced information. That is your thing. Not mine. So, if you can not find an impartial source, I am not going to waste my time debating drivel from what you can find in the con sites you frequent.
I know this is hard for your con tool brain. But truth is, my con tool, that you can learn little if you spend your time, as you seem to, looking at bat shit crazy con web sites. Perhaps I should get you some quotes from MoveOn.org. But then I will not, as I do not spend any time on their sites, and I prefer to keep my integrity. Integrity, Step, look it up.

 

[TakeAStepBack]

In other words: "I can not refute any of the information you posted. Not one single drop. Instead, i spend my time here attacking source and attacking posters as "con tools" because I'm a retard, and do not have one critical thinking bone in my body."

 

[Rshermr]

In other words: "I can not refute any of the information you posted. Not one single drop. Instead, i spend my time here attacking source and attacking posters as "con tools" because I'm a retard, and do not have one critical thinking bone in my body."

Well, step, lets put it this way. Not being able to understand why people with integrity would want to use impartial sources tells anyone who listens to you that you do indeed lack integrity. Just my opinion, Step. But it looks really simple to me and to the people that I have respected all of my life.

 

[TakeAStepBack]

Inother words: "I can not refute any of the information you posted. Not one single drop. Instead, i spend my time here attacking source and attacking posters as "con tools" because I'm a retard, and do not have one critical thinking bone in my body."