Predictions - next 6 trading days

[tigerbob]

You all have a much better understanding of the stock market than I do.

I have an image burned into the deepest recesses of my residual reptile brain that is very similar to this one:

The image that scars my psyche has an old style wood cook stove in it but the same caption...

"Post-war German woman burns money, saying the money burns longer than the firewood it would purchase."


It is very difficult to invest in something real after you realize you don't even hold something real to invest.

Fear not...Luke 12:22-24​

My mother was an opera singer who, in August 1945, visited Berlin with ENSA to put on concerts for the troops stationed there. She used to tell a story about german women standing at the Brandenburg Gate prepared to trade diamond rings for cartons of cigarettes - the ony thing that really had a tangible value other than chocolates, nylons and scotch. Heartbreaking.

Admittedly this has little to do with Citibank, but I thought I'd post it anyway.

 

[tigerbob]

I'm worried about this call with the historic government bailout of Citigroup. All Asian stocks are up following this massive move. This, along with Obama's economic team press conference may move the market massively positive today. The only bad news that we're going to have is October existing home sales. Now, unless this is historically bad news, we could be looking at Dow 8500 tomorrow.

Any improvement in the Dow is fine with me. Stability, and the sooner the better. That said, I suspect there are many more weeks or even months of red days to come.

 

[editec]

The stock market is crazy. It is an excercise in blind faith.

The market no more knows what tomorrow will bring than my dog does.

How many times does the market have to be totally wrong, creating bubbles that make like absolutely NO SENSE, before we stop telling ourselves that the stock market is some kind of diagnostic tool for establishing this nation's economic health?



The market is not rational. If it was, then anyone with an economic model could play it like a violin.

The market is the sum total of people who don't have a clue arrving at an aggregate decision based on nothing more quantitatively metric than our presumed zietgiest of their fear or greed.

 

[NOBama]

How does one build things like fear, greed, ignorance, or stupidity into an economic model?

 

[DavidS]

Any improvement in the Dow is fine with me. Stability, and the sooner the better. That said, I suspect there are many more weeks or even months of red days to come.

Yes - the dow has fallen thousands since that 900+ point rally a few weeks back. My call for today is in trouble unless that housing report is very ugly.

Actually, with all of the hooplah, dow futures are only up 121 points. 121 points these days is child's play... a normal day consists of at least 500-600 point swing. We'll go into negative territory after the housing report, then go into positive after the obama press conference and well, who knows where we'll go at the end of the day. The last hour is always pivitol.

 

[AVG-JOE]

Friday - November 21 - Dow rallies 300+ points on people moving in to buy cheap stocks.

Monday - November 24 - Dow falls 200+ points on bad news
Tuesday - November 25 - Dow up 100+ points
Wednesday - November 26 - Quiet day, light trading
Thursday - November 27 - CLOSED
Friday - November 28 - FREEFALL - Speculation about horrible holiday season
Monday - December 1 - Dow rallies on speculation of an auto bailout

By the time the automakers are back on Capitol Hill begging for money in their $10,000 suits, the dow will be around 7900.

By the time the year ends, we'll be around 6200.

Still 4 hours to trade but the dow is up 331 and looking solid at noon, Nov 24...

Bad news may still be on the horizon, but a new avatar appears to be in your future, David.

-Joe

 

[dilloduck]

Still 4 hours to trade but the dow is up 331 and looking solid at noon, Nov 24...

Bad news may still be on the horizon, but a new avatar appears to be in your future, David.

-Joe

LOL dont bother him--he's making money faster than a CEO here and doesn't have to do a lick of work.

 

[AVG-JOE]

I'm inclined to agree with your supposition.

The PE ratios have been a form of inflation, but one which our economist have been reluctant to acknowlege as such.

Bascially investments, all kinds of investments, have been a bubble.

This decline in the stock market was inevitable because the stock market has been far healthier than the economy upon which it depends.

The affluent class, which has been enjoying enormous tax breaks (let's remember that the true invetor class once had a 90% top tax rate...now it's 35%) had to put their money SOMEWHERE.

Nturally since they are affluent they invested much of it.

But while they were enjoying affluence, the working class has been suffering a fairly consistent loss of purchasing power.

So while the affluent classes were investing, their investments were basically creating a cituation where more and more money was chasing less and less profit.

PE rations had to eventually go down.

I'm simplifying this argument terribly, I know, but that is, in the marco sense, what I think is happening.

Basically the investment bubble is bursting.

When workers are more affluent, when they are ALSO making enough money to pay their bills, save for their retirements, put their kids through school, as so forth, THEN the stock market's rises will actually be supported by the economy upon which those rising prices are actually based.

The inflation of the prices in the stock market were no less artificial than the rising prices of real estate.

They were all fueled by cheap money thanks to the policies of the FED.

I think you hit the nail on the head Editec. It appears that inflation in certain areas, like real estate, is good for the wealthy class, so The Fed encourages that with cheap money. I wonder if there is any friggin' way to have an economy that is not manipulated towards the benefit of one class over another...

-Joe

 

[dilloduck]

I think you hit the nail on the head Editec. It appears that inflation in certain areas, like real estate, is good for the wealthy class, so The Fed encourages that with cheap money. I wonder if there is any friggin' way to have an economy that is not manipulated towards the benefit of one class over another...

-Joe

Never---someone will always complain that it's unfair.

 

[DavidS]

Still 4 hours to trade but the dow is up 331 and looking solid at noon, Nov 24...

Bad news may still be on the horizon, but a new avatar appears to be in your future, David.

-Joe

It's down to 207 now! It's dropped nearly 150 points since Obama started speaking... thank you, Obama!

 

[DavidS]

I actually had today and tomorrow mixed up. TOMORROW the Dow will fall over 200 points.

 

[NOBama]

I actually had today and tomorrow mixed up. TOMORROW the Dow will fall over 200 points.

Just turned on the avatar option. I guess CrimsonWhite hasn't checked in yet, huh?

I'm looking forward to seeing your new look!

 

[DavidS]

Just turned on the avatar option. I guess CrimsonWhite hasn't checked in yet, huh?

I'm looking forward to seeing your new look!

You've gotta wait until the 6 days are played out. The citibank bailout and Obama team press conference threw my whole thing off kilter. Tomorrow it'll be back. Just watch.

 

[CrimsonWhite]

DavidS has been found lacking in his predictions. Citibank bailout or not. By his terms, he loses. Anyone with suggestions for his new avatar may send them to me via PM and I will take them into consideration.

Since he did ste a timeframe for keeping this avatar, I am declaring that he must keep it for at least 6 days.

 

[DiveCon]

hmm, this is interesting

 

[Toro]

I remember reading somewhere, perhaps it was the Trader's Almanac, that the day after Thanksgiving has historically been the strongest day of the year.

 

[editec]

I think you hit the nail on the head Editec. It appears that inflation in certain areas, like real estate, is good for the wealthy class, so The Fed encourages that with cheap money. I wonder if there is any friggin' way to have an economy that is not manipulated towards the benefit of one class over another...

-Joe

Well you could start out with the presumption that the purpose of the FED is to foster growth that helps the nation instead of the just the market.

You could stop thinking that workers wage increases are a bad thing, but stock increases are always indications that the economy is in good shape.

You could start creating economic indicators that address how the working class is doing, and react to changes in those indicators, rather than creating economic indicators which only measure businsss indicators as significant.

But you have to ask yourself, how we can do that, when the people in charge of the economy are all bankers?

After all, not to fault them, but they ARE prejudiced into thinking that the only thing that matters is the health of the businesses in the nation.

They haven't given a rat's ass that the working class has been getting poorer for the last 40 years, for example. Why should they? It's not their jobs to care about the sheeple.

And the ONLY reason you hear anything about middle class relief, now, is because the middle class is so damned broke that it cannot support that consumer driven economy the markets and our government's trade policies have created.

We are NOT going to get significantly different outcomes in our eeconomy as long as we allow the same damned class to control our society, folks.

Those people quite naturally approach every problem with their own classist biases.

When was the last time you heard about the misery index?

It is a valid an economic indicator as any other, but the government doesn't care about it.

Why not?

Because, frankly, the government does not care about the misery on Main Street.

It cares ONLY about the misery on WAll Street.

As does the FED

As does the Treasury.

As do about half the people right here on this very board.

This is our classist human nature writ large into our macro-economic institutions, folks.

 

[AVG-JOE]

Well you could start out with the presumption that the purpose of the FED is to foster growth that helps the nation instead of the just the market.

You could stop thinking that workers wage increases are a bad thing, but stock increases are always indications that the economy is in good shape.

You could start creating economic indicators that address how the working class is doing, and react to changes in those indicators, rather than creating economic indicators which only measure businsss indicators as significant.

But you have to ask yourself, how we can do that, when the people in charge of the economy are all bankers?

After all, not to fault them, but they ARE prejudiced into thinking that the only thing that matters is the health of the businesses in the nation.

They haven't given a rat's ass that the working class has been getting poorer for the last 40 years, for example. Why should they? It's not their jobs to care about the sheeple.

And the ONLY reason you hear anything about middle class relief, now, is because the middle class is so damned broke that it cannot support that consumer driven economy the markets and our government's trade policies have created.

We are NOT going to get significantly different outcomes in our eeconomy as long as we allow the same damned class to control our society, folks.

Those people quite naturally approach every problem with their own classist biases.

When was the last time you heard about the misery index?

It is a valid an economic indicator as any other, but the government doesn't care about it.

Why not?

Because, frankly, the government does not care about the misery on Main Street.

It cares ONLY about the misery on WAll Street.

As does the FED

As does the Treasury.

As do about half the people right here on this very board.

This is our classist human nature writ large into our macro-economic institutions, folks.

It is human nature to care more about the people who live on your own street than the folks on the other side of the tracks. This should not surprise us.

What does surprise me is how easily people are educated to support ideas that are contrary to their own economic well being, for example, the value of unions. The UAW, because of its evolution to the extreme, is a prime example of the true value of a union being to a specific group of workers at the expense of the majority. Trickle down economics, practiced to the extreme and proven for the unfair policy that it is by the Bush administration is an example from the other side.

I hope that I live to see the day when 'fair' can be a term used to describe taxes and economic policy / incentives.

-Joe

 

[Old Rocks]

Friday - November 21 - Dow rallies 300+ points on people moving in to buy cheap stocks.

Monday - November 24 - Dow falls 200+ points on bad news
Tuesday - November 25 - Dow up 100+ points
Wednesday - November 26 - Quiet day, light trading
Thursday - November 27 - CLOSED
Friday - November 28 - FREEFALL - Speculation about horrible holiday season
Monday - December 1 - Dow rallies on speculation of an auto bailout

By the time the automakers are back on Capitol Hill begging for money in their $10,000 suits, the dow will be around 7900.

By the time the year ends, we'll be around 6200.

Hmmm, nearly 8900 at the end of the day, Friday;

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=5d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

 

[DavidS]

Wow. I really bombed here. I guess the whole Obama recession theory has been blown to bits. Since he's introduced his financial team, the market's been up 11%.