Predictions for 2010

[The Rabbi]

Let's see:
The Bush tax cuts expire in Jan. The health care taxes take effect then.
So you are positing that if you increase the cost of something (employment) you will still get more of it, the very opposite of classic economic theory. Maybe, but I doubt it.

Dow hits 12k: valuations are already very high, largely because interest rates are so low. With a recovering economy the Fed is under intense pressure to raise rates to avoid killer inflation. When rates go up the market will tank. Corporate profits ahve been improved because of cost containment,not increased sales. So what will mvoe the market 20% higher? I dunno. Neither do you.

Healthcare. Hardly a done deal although likely to pass. The liberal Dems in the House are all looking at Nebraska's sweetheart deal and wondering how to get the same for themselves. This could easily go south. IN any case the taxes kick in immediately but the benefits are years away.

Republicans pick up seats. The current polling on races shows the GOP sweeping every race they are in as anger over Democratic policies spills over. A lot can happen between now and Nov though.

Sarah Palin implodes. Very likely. She has become a media phenomenon and like all such fades quickly without a new gig.

Kim and Catro die. So what? Each one has successors in place who will not change the basic modus of their states, having too mcuh invested in them. It would take a revolution in both places to make real change. That might happen but as Iran and Honduras shows, the Obama administration is more interested in "stability" than democracy.

Time to put up or shut up Rabbi...

I'll make the same offer to you. Post your predictions for 2010 and we will see who is closer in six months and a year. I stand by my predictions

Anemic growth with mounting inflation towards the end of the year. Mildly improved job market mostly due to government hiring. Bankruptices by retailers in Jan/Feb who didnt have the Xmas season they thought they would.

Breakdown of talks with Iran. Calls by the EU for more talks.

Threats by N.Korea to launch new missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland, followed by dispatching Jimmy Carter to negotiate another deal.

New terrorist attacks on American targets, followed by condemnations by Pres Obama before he tees off with promises to bring the perps to justice.

Joe Biden will be discovered in hiding in Singapore.

Death of cap n trade in Senate.

And finally, sweep of both houses of Congress by the GOP and blocking any legislation by Obama until his miserable term is up.

 

[nodoginnafight]

Predictions for 2010

1. Unemployment drops to 7%

2. Dow Jones hits 12000

3. Healthcare passes

4. Republicans pick up seats in the House and Senate but are still a minority

5. Sarah Palin implodes because of a quote she can't take back

6. Kim Jung Il and Castro die. Clinton forges new US relationships with restructured Communist regimes

May I add my own predictions.
1. "Unemployment drops to 7%"
Looney rightwingers scoff at unemployment figues and claim REAL number is closer to 34%.

2. "Dow Jones hits 12000"
Looney leftwingers say IRA's should be subject to tax NOW.

3. "Healthcare passes"
It will be significant for about 30 to 40 million Americans. No one else will notice much at all.

4. "Republicans pick up seats in the House and Senate but are still a minority."
Both parties claim election results are "clearly a mandate" for THEIR side.

5. "Sarah Palin implodes because of a quote she can't take back."
She claims she was misquoted and "victimized" by the liberal media.

6. "Kim Jung Il and Castro die. Clinton forges new US relationships with restructured Communist regimes."
It becomes easier to buy a Korean wife and a really good cigar.

 

[rightwinger]

Let's see:
The Bush tax cuts expire in Jan. The health care taxes take effect then.
So you are positing that if you increase the cost of something (employment) you will still get more of it, the very opposite of classic economic theory. Maybe, but I doubt it.

Dow hits 12k: valuations are already very high, largely because interest rates are so low. With a recovering economy the Fed is under intense pressure to raise rates to avoid killer inflation. When rates go up the market will tank. Corporate profits ahve been improved because of cost containment,not increased sales. So what will mvoe the market 20% higher? I dunno. Neither do you.

Healthcare. Hardly a done deal although likely to pass. The liberal Dems in the House are all looking at Nebraska's sweetheart deal and wondering how to get the same for themselves. This could easily go south. IN any case the taxes kick in immediately but the benefits are years away.

Republicans pick up seats. The current polling on races shows the GOP sweeping every race they are in as anger over Democratic policies spills over. A lot can happen between now and Nov though.

Sarah Palin implodes. Very likely. She has become a media phenomenon and like all such fades quickly without a new gig.

Kim and Catro die. So what? Each one has successors in place who will not change the basic modus of their states, having too mcuh invested in them. It would take a revolution in both places to make real change. That might happen but as Iran and Honduras shows, the Obama administration is more interested in "stability" than democracy.

Time to put up or shut up Rabbi...

I'll make the same offer to you. Post your predictions for 2010 and we will see who is closer in six months and a year. I stand by my predictions

Anemic growth with mounting inflation towards the end of the year. Mildly improved job market mostly due to government hiring. Bankruptices by retailers in Jan/Feb who didnt have the Xmas season they thought they would.

Breakdown of talks with Iran. Calls by the EU for more talks.

Threats by N.Korea to launch new missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland, followed by dispatching Jimmy Carter to negotiate another deal.

New terrorist attacks on American targets, followed by condemnations by Pres Obama before he tees off with promises to bring the perps to justice.

Joe Biden will be discovered in hiding in Singapore.

Death of cap n trade in Senate.

And finally, sweep of both houses of Congress by the GOP and blocking any legislation by Obama until his miserable term is up.

Looks good Rabbi.. so lets see

Only problem you have is sweeping both Houses. The House is always up for grabs but only 1/3 of the Senate is available. Dems have won the last two senate cycles so that means GOP is defending seats they won in 2004. Not going to happen.

 

[Liability]

1) Double dip recession

Sadly, I think that prediction is a lock.

2) Unemployment hits 14%

A distinct possibility.

3) Credit Bubble pops

The signs are emerging already.

4) Iran tests 1st nuclear weapon[/quopte]

I hope that one is wrong. I doubt the fuckers would have the nerve to try it if there was a real President in the White House.

5) Obama's favorable rating hits 19

I doubt it will get THAT low. But I do not doubt it will sink lower that President Bush's got at its lowest.

6) Democrats lose House & Senate

Losing the House would be an amazing feat. President Obama's "coattails" must be measured in angstrom units.

7) Gasoline hits $ 7.00 a gallon

Again, I hope that prediction is wrong. But I don't doubt that the price is going back over $4.00.


And the combination of these things is going to have a really BAD synergy going along with it. We are in real trouble.

 

[Lumpy 1]

1) Double dip recession

Sadly, I think that prediction is a lock.

2) Unemployment hits 14%

A distinct possibility.



The signs are emerging already.

4) Iran tests 1st nuclear weapon[/quopte]

I hope that one is wrong. I doubt the fuckers would have the nerve to try it if there was a real President in the White House.



I doubt it will get THAT low. But I do not doubt it will sink lower that President Bush's got at its lowest.



Losing the House would be an amazing feat. President Obama's "coattails" must be measured in angstrom units.

7) Gasoline hits $ 7.00 a gallon

Again, I hope that prediction is wrong. But I don't doubt that the price is going back over $4.00.


And the combination of these things is going to have a really BAD synergy going along with it. We are in real trouble.

I never gamble anymore.. can you guess why?

 

[The Rabbi]

Time to put up or shut up Rabbi...

I'll make the same offer to you. Post your predictions for 2010 and we will see who is closer in six months and a year. I stand by my predictions

Anemic growth with mounting inflation towards the end of the year. Mildly improved job market mostly due to government hiring. Bankruptices by retailers in Jan/Feb who didnt have the Xmas season they thought they would.

Breakdown of talks with Iran. Calls by the EU for more talks.

Threats by N.Korea to launch new missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland, followed by dispatching Jimmy Carter to negotiate another deal.

New terrorist attacks on American targets, followed by condemnations by Pres Obama before he tees off with promises to bring the perps to justice.

Joe Biden will be discovered in hiding in Singapore.

Death of cap n trade in Senate.

And finally, sweep of both houses of Congress by the GOP and blocking any legislation by Obama until his miserable term is up.

Looks good Rabbi.. so lets see

Only problem you have is sweeping both Houses. The House is always up for grabs but only 1/3 of the Senate is available. Dems have won the last two senate cycles so that means GOP is defending seats they won in 2004. Not going to happen.

Nineteen seats are held by Democrats that are up for re-election. Currently there are 40 Republicans. So at 59 seats the GOP wont have a veto proof majority but close enough. And that doesn't count Democratic defections after the landslide.

 

[rightwinger]

Nineteen seats are held by Democrats that are up for re-election. Currently there are 40 Republicans. So at 59 seats the GOP wont have a veto proof majority but close enough. And that doesn't count Democratic defections after the landslide.

You are delusional if you think the GOP will defend every one of their own seats and win every Democratic seat.

But, hey its your prediction, just makes it easier for me to rub in your face when I bring back this post next year

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Anemic growth with mounting inflation towards the end of the year. Mildly improved job market mostly due to government hiring. Bankruptices by retailers in Jan/Feb who didnt have the Xmas season they thought they would.

Breakdown of talks with Iran. Calls by the EU for more talks.

Threats by N.Korea to launch new missile capable of hitting the U.S. mainland, followed by dispatching Jimmy Carter to negotiate another deal.

New terrorist attacks on American targets, followed by condemnations by Pres Obama before he tees off with promises to bring the perps to justice.

Joe Biden will be discovered in hiding in Singapore.

Death of cap n trade in Senate.

And finally, sweep of both houses of Congress by the GOP and blocking any legislation by Obama until his miserable term is up.

Looks good Rabbi.. so lets see

Only problem you have is sweeping both Houses. The House is always up for grabs but only 1/3 of the Senate is available. Dems have won the last two senate cycles so that means GOP is defending seats they won in 2004. Not going to happen.

Nineteen seats are held by Democrats that are up for re-election. Currently there are 40 Republicans. So at 59 seats the GOP wont have a veto proof majority but close enough. And that doesn't count Democratic defections after the landslide.

So you're predicting that Schumer, Reid, Specter, Feingold, Bayh, and Boxer are all going to lose?

I'm bookmarking this, just to laugh in your face. You know Schumer's approval rating among NYers is nearly 60%?

 

[EriktheRed]

And finally, sweep of both houses of Congress by the GOP and blocking any legislation by Obama until his miserable term is up.

I seem to remember the last time the GOP took back Congress. They found out the hard way that the Prez was still the Prez and they still had to deal with him.


Come to think of it, that happened with the Dems recently, too...

 

[EriktheRed]

Looks good Rabbi.. so lets see

Only problem you have is sweeping both Houses. The House is always up for grabs but only 1/3 of the Senate is available. Dems have won the last two senate cycles so that means GOP is defending seats they won in 2004. Not going to happen.

Nineteen seats are held by Democrats that are up for re-election. Currently there are 40 Republicans. So at 59 seats the GOP wont have a veto proof majority but close enough. And that doesn't count Democratic defections after the landslide.

So you're predicting that Schumer, Reid, Specter, Feingold, Bayh, and Boxer are all going to lose?

I'm bookmarking this, just to laugh in your face. You know Schumer's approval rating among NYers is nearly 60%?

I second that bookmarking. You're on some serious wingnut crack if you think the GOP is gonna take all Dem Senate seats up for re-election this year.

 

[Oscar Wao]

Looks good Rabbi.. so lets see

Only problem you have is sweeping both Houses. The House is always up for grabs but only 1/3 of the Senate is available. Dems have won the last two senate cycles so that means GOP is defending seats they won in 2004. Not going to happen.

Nineteen seats are held by Democrats that are up for re-election. Currently there are 40 Republicans. So at 59 seats the GOP wont have a veto proof majority but close enough. And that doesn't count Democratic defections after the landslide.

So you're predicting that Schumer, Reid, Specter, Feingold, Bayh, and Boxer are all going to lose?

I'm bookmarking this, just to laugh in your face. You know Schumer's approval rating among NYers is nearly 60%?

I'd say Specter just might lose.

Boxer's in the realm of WOW! if it happened, but her losing wouldn't be a sign of the Apocalypse, either.

As to the others, yeah, they're shoe-ins. They'll definitely win.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Yeah........if the GOP manages to hold on to what they CURRENTLY have, they'll be ahead of the game.

Wanna know why? The GOP has started to fracture after your stellar show pup the Wasilla Chihuahua broke away from McCain and tried to go rogue.

Off of that, the tea parties were born.

You really think the GOP is gonna have 59 seats after November? What would you like to bet, and make sure it's something REALLY good (like........your car), that you can afford to lose.

Because.....you've got to be on some Michael Jackson/Keith Richards hybrid of drugs to thing that's gonna happen.

Might wanna take some of what you've been smoking and have it analyzed, because that ain't just pot you're smoking dude..........

 

[ABikerSailor]

Nineteen seats are held by Democrats that are up for re-election. Currently there are 40 Republicans. So at 59 seats the GOP wont have a veto proof majority but close enough. And that doesn't count Democratic defections after the landslide.

So you're predicting that Schumer, Reid, Specter, Feingold, Bayh, and Boxer are all going to lose?

I'm bookmarking this, just to laugh in your face. You know Schumer's approval rating among NYers is nearly 60%?

I'd say Specter just might lose.

Boxer's in the realm of WOW! if it happened, but her losing wouldn't be a sign of the Apocalypse, either.

As to the others, yeah, they're shoe-ins. They'll definitely win.

Hey dude! Hope you had a good Christmas.

You must have been practicing telepathy man, because I was just fixing to write the very same thing you did.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Nineteen seats are held by Democrats that are up for re-election. Currently there are 40 Republicans. So at 59 seats the GOP wont have a veto proof majority but close enough. And that doesn't count Democratic defections after the landslide.

So you're predicting that Schumer, Reid, Specter, Feingold, Bayh, and Boxer are all going to lose?

I'm bookmarking this, just to laugh in your face. You know Schumer's approval rating among NYers is nearly 60%?

I'd say Specter just might lose.

Boxer's in the realm of WOW! if it happened, but her losing wouldn't be a sign of the Apocalypse, either.

As to the others, yeah, they're shoe-ins. They'll definitely win.

Specter might, you're right. But I don't think that Barbara Boxer should be worried.

 

[Oscar Wao]

So you're predicting that Schumer, Reid, Specter, Feingold, Bayh, and Boxer are all going to lose?

I'm bookmarking this, just to laugh in your face. You know Schumer's approval rating among NYers is nearly 60%?

I'd say Specter just might lose.

Boxer's in the realm of WOW! if it happened, but her losing wouldn't be a sign of the Apocalypse, either.

As to the others, yeah, they're shoe-ins. They'll definitely win.

Hey dude! Hope you had a good Christmas.

You must have been practicing telepathy man, because I was just fixing to write the very same thing you did.

I hope yours was, too!

And looks like it might be starting to kick in, haha.

 

[SFC Ollie]

I would be satisfied with 45 Republican Senators this next election. Besides that is more of a real guesstimate.

 

[Oscar Wao]

I'd be satisfied if they were 45 Republicans who followed principles and didn't campaign on the nice, pretty little title of their organization name.

 

[rightwinger]

I would be satisfied with 45 Republican Senators this next election. Besides that is more of a real guesstimate.

Come on ollie

Lets see your 2010 predictions (hint: stay away from the Cowboys)

 

[ABikerSailor]

I would be satisfied with 45 Republican Senators this next election. Besides that is more of a real guesstimate.

Is that REALLY a "real guesstimate"?

Personally? I'd call it more like fucking hopeful, or wishful thinking.............

 

[theDoctorisIn]

I would be satisfied with 45 Republican Senators this next election. Besides that is more of a real guesstimate.

That much I could see. But I still doubt it, incumbents win 90% of the time, and at least 10 or 12 of the Dem seats are unbeatable. (Schumer, Gillibrand, etc)