Predictions by economists/analysts

[longsangstan]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

 

[pinqy]

The reason we have economists is to make weathermen look good.
Economists have correctly predicted 9 of the last 4 recessions.

 

[Mr. H.]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

This is a message board, not your personal billboard.

 

[midcan5]

"If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion." George Bernard Shaw

'The end of capitalism has begun'
The end of capitalism has begun Books The Guardian

The 1%
How I f ed Morgan Stanley Deviance and debauchery of the 1 percent - Salon.com

.

 

[CultureCitizen]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

It is nice to have a site with a compilation of economic predictions.

Economic predictions are kind of hard.

For example Peter Schiff has been saying that the stock bubble will burst if the Fed decides to rise interest rates.
Of course this is an open ended prediction because :
a) The fed might rise rates to 0.5% which will probably not cause a burst in the stocks
b) If I was in charge I wouldn't rise rates before the elections ( and then I would probably do it only if republicans got ellected).

The stock might burst on its own weight nevertheless, last time I checked it was already climbing to 2000 levels.

My point is that there are a number of factors ( political, social and technological ) that affect economic outcomes which are very hard to foresee.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

dear, all agree that human beings are not good at predicting the future. Economists are no exception. Also, you cant trust anyone since past success, if you can find some, would not predict future success.

So your concept is absurd as is your idea of predicting the future based on the past. Sorry to rock your world.

 

[Bombur]

I believe the major places that do this kind of thing rely on surveys.

A lot of economic predictions are done by companies that sell their predictions.

Predictions are very dependent on information. A lot of economists don't spend a lot of time just predicting the entire economy and instead try and focus their attention on specific areas.

 

[longsangstan]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

It is nice to have a site with a compilation of economic predictions.

Economic predictions are kind of hard.

For example Peter Schiff has been saying that the stock bubble will burst if the Fed decides to rise interest rates.
Of course this is an open ended prediction because :
a) The fed might rise rates to 0.5% which will probably not cause a burst in the stocks
b) If I was in charge I wouldn't rise rates before the elections ( and then I would probably do it only if republicans got ellected).

The stock might burst on its own weight nevertheless, last time I checked it was already climbing to 2000 levels.

My point is that there are a number of factors ( political, social and technological ) that affect economic outcomes which are very hard to foresee.

Thanks!
I might later add a tag like "Not Refutable" to open-ended predictions.

 

[longsangstan]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

dear, all agree that human beings are not good at predicting the future. Economists are no exception. Also, you cant trust anyone since past success, if you can find some, would not predict future success.

So your concept is absurd as is your idea of predicting the future based on the past. Sorry to rock your world.

I agree most economists are not good at predicting the future. In fact one of the purpose of my site is to illustrate this point.
But I believe that if a economist has a good track record, maybe there is something we can learn from him.

 

[Bombur]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

dear, all agree that human beings are not good at predicting the future. Economists are no exception. Also, you cant trust anyone since past success, if you can find some, would not predict future success.

So your concept is absurd as is your idea of predicting the future based on the past. Sorry to rock your world.

I agree most economists are not good at predicting the future. In fact one of the purpose of my site is to illustrate this point.
But I believe that if a economist has a good track record, maybe there is something we can learn from him.

A lot of them don't even predict recessions. I don't think you really know enough about economic predictions to even try to do this.

 

[longsangstan]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

dear, all agree that human beings are not good at predicting the future. Economists are no exception. Also, you cant trust anyone since past success, if you can find some, would not predict future success.

So your concept is absurd as is your idea of predicting the future based on the past. Sorry to rock your world.

I agree most economists are not good at predicting the future. In fact one of the purpose of my site is to illustrate this point.
But I believe that if a economist has a good track record, maybe there is something we can learn from him.

A lot of them don't even predict recessions. I don't think you really know enough about economic predictions to even try to do this.

Sorry I can't quite follow you. Do you mean most economists can't even predict recessions and therefore no point tracking them?

Also this site is not just for "macro" predictions - which I agree is very hard - but also for "micro" predictions like "If company A does this, what will happen to other companies..."

 

[Bombur]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

dear, all agree that human beings are not good at predicting the future. Economists are no exception. Also, you cant trust anyone since past success, if you can find some, would not predict future success.

So your concept is absurd as is your idea of predicting the future based on the past. Sorry to rock your world.

I agree most economists are not good at predicting the future. In fact one of the purpose of my site is to illustrate this point.
But I believe that if a economist has a good track record, maybe there is something we can learn from him.

A lot of them don't even predict recessions. I don't think you really know enough about economic predictions to even try to do this.

Sorry I can't quite follow you. Do you mean most economists can't even predict recessions and therefore no point tracking them?

Also this site is not just for "macro" predictions - which I agree is very hard - but also for "micro" predictions like "If company A does this, what will happen to other companies..."

No. An economist will make a prediction for GDP growth for a period of time. It can be a quarter, a month, a year, whatever. Say they predict 3% growth for a year. That 3% growth rate doesn't tell you anything about what they think the odds of a recession are in that year. You would have to know how they are estimating risk factors to understand that.

Like I said before, a lot of data is either something you have to buy or it is from surveys of economists. This type of analysis can be ok to see what the group is thinking it doesn't tell you enough about any individual estimate to determine how well they anticipated a recession.

 

[shadow355]

Hi guys,
I have made a website to keep track of all the predictions made by economists/analysts: www.econpredictions.com
The goal is to track down all the economists/analysts who just talk s*** and see who we can trust.
Any comments?

I get lied to and manipulated to at work on a regular bases. False or misleading stories, tales of events and bad information about others is told to me at work on a regular basis. I don't know whom to believe.

Same with the economy. If it was all correct, or was mostly true.....a lot of people would be rich off of corporations, industry, stock market....ect.

I get lied to, manipulated and fed false information.

Same with the media and the stock market. Some of it is not completely true, misleading or misinforming.

Even some economist are 0 and 20.


Shadow 355

 

[jwoodie]

If I was in charge I wouldn't rise rates before the elections ( and then I would probably do it only if republicans got ellected).

Revealing look into the liberal mind: Party before country, no matter what the cost.

 

[there4eyeM]

Some find it interesting that economists can explain in excruciating detail exactly what caused and happened in every financial crisis and collapse, but cannot predict what will happen if a country's sales tax is changed by two percent.

 

[Bombur]

Some find it interesting that economists can explain in excruciating detail exactly what caused and happened in every financial crisis and collapse, but cannot predict what will happen if a country's sales tax is changed by two percent.

Not enough input.

 

[there4eyeM]

'Enough' being all the input available after the event.

 

[Bombur]

'Enough' being all the input available after the event.

If an economist is making a prediction about what will happen with a 2% sales tax increase and they are wrong it is most likely tied to the predictions they made concerning everything else.

Economists can be hard to understand for outsiders. It is best this way.

 

[there4eyeM]

The oddest thing is that they try to make it seem a science. Rarely do we see the admission that it is psychology.

 

[Bombur]

The oddest thing is that they try to make it seem a science. Rarely do we see the admission that it is psychology.

It is a science.

It is also part psychology. Which is also a science.

It is not an easy science due the number of variables involved but the successful examples of applied economics have been tremendous, which is often the real test of any science.