Predictions.. 2012 election Cycle

[JoeB131]

Bet you are regretting jumping on the Perry bandwagon so quick. The guy really is turning out to be a dog

Like I have been telling you for a year.....Romney is your only credible candidate

Might as well face the inevitable

That argument would hold water if Perry's fall was Romney's gain.

It hasn't. Romney is still at the same low level he's been at pretty much all along in this thing. In fact, Romney has never breached more than 25% on the RCP average, and right now his average is down to 22%. (And I think that RCP cherry picks the polls they put in the average to make Romney look better.)

Meanwhile, the combined "Not Romneys" - Gingrich, Cain, Perry and Bachmann - are where they've always been, about 55%. In fact, these people have moved from candidate to candidate, but Romney is not their first choice or even their second, and eventually, they are going to lock down on a not Romney.

the biggest problem your side has is that no matter who we pick, you guys are still stuck with the Community Organizer. And his 9% unemployment. And his downgraded credit. And his $4.00 a gallon gasoline. And his 5 Trillion in new debt.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Did you guys see all the bad economic news we had this past week?

 

[JoeB131]

Did you guys see all the bad economic news we had this past week?

You mean Oil going back over $100 a barrel.

The Dow being down triple digits for the week?

 

[LoneLaugher]

No....that is the bad news for thinking people.

The bad news for nutters was another fall in new unemployment claims and a .9% growth in the economy. Better call your Congressperson and demand that he or she do something!

 

[Full-Auto]

No....that is the bad news for thinking people.

The bad news for nutters was another fall in new unemployment claims and a .9% growth in the economy. Better call your Congressperson and demand that he or she do something!

THANK GOD for the holidays, because ITS NOT DEM POLICY

 

[Liability]

If you run President Obama, ANYBODY else will win.

You lib tools STILL haven't figured out that the man is now Electoral Poison?

Too funny.

Keep up the good work!

True.
Every candidate backed by Obama has lost. He himself has high negatives, and that's just what people tell pollsters. I would bet his true negatives are even higher. Donald Trump could beat this guy.

Perry can't beat Obama

Silliness.

President Obama could lose to almost anybody including Gov. Perry.

 

[Liability]

No....that is the bad news for thinking people.

The bad news for nutters was another fall in new unemployment claims and a .9% growth in the economy. Better call your Congressperson and demand that he or she do something!

THANK GOD for the holidays, because ITS NOT DEM POLICY

LonelyLaughable is going to INSIST, damn it, that President Obama get the credit for seasonal/holiday temporary improvements in the economy.

"Obama Claus is coming to town!" Ho Ho Ho.

 

[JoeB131]

No....that is the bad news for thinking people.

The bad news for nutters was another fall in new unemployment claims and a .9% growth in the economy. Better call your Congressperson and demand that he or she do something!

Both of those numbers are kind of minor and sort of pathetic. It's still about 400,000 a week, which is pretty awful. That still comes out to about 20 million jobs a year lost, and new ones are not being created fast enough.

To put it in perspective, guy, there should have been a point where we hit rock bottom, where there was simply nothing else for employers to cut. The fact they could cut another 388,000 people last week means they are scraping the bottom and still finding more.

I know my company just laid another lady off after our management promised us they were done with layoffs for the years. And I'm not getting as many unsolicited recruiters calling me as I was over the summer, even though right not I'm a bit more inclined to look at other possibilities.

Obama is done.... stick a fork in him. We aren't going to reward him for 4 years of misery by giving him another four.

 

[Foxfyre]

True.
Every candidate backed by Obama has lost. He himself has high negatives, and that's just what people tell pollsters. I would bet his true negatives are even higher. Donald Trump could beat this guy.

Perry can't beat Obama

Silliness.

President Obama could lose to almost anybody including Gov. Perry.

If the election was held today, I honestly do believe ANYBODY currently declared as a candidate for POTUS, except maybe a David Duke or the most extremist obscure party candidates, could beat President Obama. And I think we could recruit Christie or Palin or Huckabee or Jeb Bush or just about anybody and they could also beat Obama. IF the election was held today. Hell, even Pat Buchanan could have a decent shot.

We still have a year to go. A year with every fanatical leftwinger out there sniffing for ANY speck of dirt they can make look like a major scandal for anybody gaining any traction; a year of as much innuendo and suggestion and insinuation as they can think up to cast doubt in people's minds. AND if there is a simultaneous improvement in employment, inflation, trade imbalance, and other economic indicators--and it isn't difficult to create a last minute illusion of that if you know how to do it, then we have enough uneducated, brainwashed, ideologically fanatical, or utterly ignorant idiots in this country that can be cajoled, bribed, or coerced into voting for Obama and re-elect him.

We can never become complacent and think it is not important to keep rebutting the lies and innuendo and promoting the positives that we expect from a fiscally conservative candidate.

And there are a LOT of people reading and requoting stuff from the message boards, most especially those in elected office, and most especially in a big board like USMB.

 

[Chris]

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012 - Washington Whispers (usnews.com)

 

[JoeB131]

That last post reminds me of a Doctor Who Episode I just watched.

Sontaran General- "I am Staal, the undefeated!"

The Doctor - "Well, that's a terrible nickname. What happens if you get defeated? 'Staal the not quite so undefeated but never mind!"

Whatever factors this quack has cooked up, the fact is we are in uncharted waters here. A president has never faced re-election with numbers as bad as Obama, and pick one, he'll lose.

 

[Chris]

That last post reminds me of a Doctor Who Episode I just watched.

Sontaran General- "I am Staal, the undefeated!"

The Doctor - "Well, that's a terrible nickname. What happens if you get defeated? 'Staal the not quite so undefeated but never mind!"

Whatever factors this quack has cooked up, the fact is we are in uncharted waters here. A president has never faced re-election with numbers as bad as Obama, and pick one, he'll lose.

Bullshit.

Obama is going to win.

George W. Bush inherited a strong economy, a budget surplus, and a nation at peace.

Eight years later, he left Obama with a shattered economy, a trillion dollar deficit, and two useless wars.

Obama saved the country from another Great Depression, rebuilt GM, reformed healthcare, reformed Wall Street, doubled the stock market, created 19 straight months of private sector job growth, got Bin Laden, got Gaddafi, and got us out of Iraq.

Obama has done a very good job.

 

[JoeB131]

That last post reminds me of a Doctor Who Episode I just watched.

Sontaran General- "I am Staal, the undefeated!"

The Doctor - "Well, that's a terrible nickname. What happens if you get defeated? 'Staal the not quite so undefeated but never mind!"

Whatever factors this quack has cooked up, the fact is we are in uncharted waters here. A president has never faced re-election with numbers as bad as Obama, and pick one, he'll lose.

Bullshit.

Obama is going to win.

George W. Bush inherited a strong economy, a budget surplus, and a nation at peace.

Eight years later, he left Obama with a shattered economy, a trillion dollar deficit, and two useless wars.

Obama saved the country from another Great Depression, rebuilt GM, reformed healthcare, reformed Wall Street, doubled the stock market, created 19 straight months of private sector job growth, got Bin Laden, got Gaddafi, and got us out of Iraq.

Obama has done a very good job.

Do you have that mantra on some kind of macro where it automatically posts? Seriously?

Repeating it doesn't take away from the fact that Obama has 9% unemployment, a 40% approval rating, $4.00 a gallon gas, etc. etc.

Okay, if you want to pretend it's not his fault that's fine, but he isn't making it any better.

 

[Toro]

That last post reminds me of a Doctor Who Episode I just watched.

Sontaran General- "I am Staal, the undefeated!"

The Doctor - "Well, that's a terrible nickname. What happens if you get defeated? 'Staal the not quite so undefeated but never mind!"

Whatever factors this quack has cooked up, the fact is we are in uncharted waters here. A president has never faced re-election with numbers as bad as Obama, and pick one, he'll lose.

Bullshit.

Obama is going to win.

George W. Bush inherited a strong economy, a budget surplus, and a nation at peace.

Eight years later, he left Obama with a shattered economy, a trillion dollar deficit, and two useless wars.

Obama saved the country from another Great Depression, rebuilt GM, reformed healthcare, reformed Wall Street, doubled the stock market, created 19 straight months of private sector job growth, got Bin Laden, got Gaddafi, and got us out of Iraq.

Obama has done a very good job.

Bush inherited a weak economy, and without the surge in capital gains taxes caused by the Tech Bubble, there would have been no surplus.

Obama has done a poor job.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Allan Lichtman, the American University professor whose election formula has correctly called every president since Ronald Reagan’s 1984 re-election, has a belated birthday present for Barack Obama: Rest easy, your re-election is in the bag.

“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” says Lichtman, the brains behind The Keys to the White House.

Lichtman’s prediction helps to explain a quirk in some polling that finds that while Americans disapprove of the president, they still think he will win re-election.

Working for the president are several of Lichtman’s keys, tops among them incumbency and the scandal-free nature of his administration.Undermining his re-election is a lack of charisma and leadership on key issues, says Lichtman, even including healthcare, Obama’s crowning achievement.

Lichtman developed his 13 Keys in 1981. They test the performance of the party that holds the presidency. If six or more of the 13 keys go against the party in power, then the opposing party wins.“The keys have figured into popular politics a bit,” Lichtman says. “They’ve never missed. They’ve been right seven elections in a row. A number that goes way beyond statistical significance in a record no other system even comes close to.”

Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012 - Washington Whispers (usnews.com)

13 keys.

1) Obama loses

2) Obama wins

3) Obama wins

4) Obama wins

5) Obama loses (unemployment is over 9%)

6) Obama loses

7) Obama loses (he instituted stimulus and healthcare, both increasingly unpopular)

8) Obama loses (OWS isn't social unrest?)

9) Obama loses (Gun runner and Solyndra aren't scandals?)

10) undecided (Iran, Egypt & Libya could still turn before Nov 2012)

11) Obama wins

12) Obama loses

13) Obama loses (the challenger doesn't need charisma when unemployment is over 9%)

Challenger needs 6 Obama losses, of the above 13, to win.
Obama loses 8. Buh-bye.

 

[Lumpy 1]

Here we go again.. well maybe