Prediction from 1981

Old Rocks

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Oct 31, 2008
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Often we see posted on this board how wildly erroneous Dr. James Hansen's predictions have been. Almost always without any supportive links. So what is Dr. Hansen's record on his predictions. Here is one from an early paper in 1981. The whole paper is available at the link.

http://thedgw.org/definitionsOut/..\docs\Hansen_climate_impact_of_increasing_co2.pdf

Summary. The global temperature rose by 0.20C between the middle 1960's and
1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is
consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar
luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend
of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming
should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the
century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on
climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North
America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West
Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the
fabled Northwest Passage.
 
Often we see posted on this board how wildly erroneous Dr. James Hansen's predictions have been. Almost always without any supportive links. So what is Dr. Hansen's record on his predictions. Here is one from an early paper in 1981. The whole paper is available at the link.

http://thedgw.org/definitionsOut/..\docs\Hansen_climate_impact_of_increasing_co2.pdf

Summary. The global temperature rose by 0.20C between the middle 1960's and
1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is
consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar
luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend
of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming
should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the
century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on
climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North
America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West
Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the
fabled Northwest Passage.

So you're saying he is correct? All this happened and increased CO2 made it happen?

It was 50 degrees this morning - late April in Florida. I've never seen that before.
 
Prediction from 1977

03-06e.gif
 
Often we see posted on this board how wildly erroneous Dr. James Hansen's predictions have been. Almost always without any supportive links. So what is Dr. Hansen's record on his predictions. Here is one from an early paper in 1981. The whole paper is available at the link.

http://thedgw.org/definitionsOut/..\docs\Hansen_climate_impact_of_increasing_co2.pdf

Summary. The global temperature rose by 0.20C between the middle 1960's and
1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is
consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar
luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend
of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming
should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the
century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on
climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North
America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West
Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the
fabled Northwest Passage.

So you're saying he is correct? All this happened and increased CO2 made it happen?

It was 50 degrees this morning - late April in Florida. I've never seen that before.

Ever see this before?

HAMweather: Record Events for March 2012

Total Selected Records: 26844

Rainfall: 5027

Snowfall: 695

High Temp: 10118

Low Temp: 624

Low Max Temp: 1216

High Min Temp: 9164
 
LOL......all the k00k predictions in the past 5 or 6 years have fallen flat on their face...........which is exactly why the whole green movement is moving at a snails pace.

The public gets this shit now.........I posted up the new Pew poll the other night ( concerns of the voters). Global warming isnt even on the list of the 20 top concerns anymore. Its now only an internet hobby thing........
 
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Will rocks explain the ice age predictions?

Already have many times. A few scientists looked at the decreasing temperatures in the 60s and early 70s without factoring in the aerosols. And predicted an imanant ice age. The press picked it up and ran with it. Over six times as many scientists predicted warming because of the increasing GHGs. The OP has the predictions made by Dr. Hansen in 1981. Predictions for this century, many of which have already happened.
 
Often we see posted on this board how wildly erroneous Dr. James Hansen's predictions have been. Almost always without any supportive links. So what is Dr. Hansen's record on his predictions. Here is one from an early paper in 1981. The whole paper is available at the link.

http://thedgw.org/definitionsOut/..\docs\Hansen_climate_impact_of_increasing_co2.pdf

Summary. The global temperature rose by 0.20C between the middle 1960's and
1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is
consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar
luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend
of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming
should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the
century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on
climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North
America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West
Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the
fabled Northwest Passage.

So you're saying he is correct? All this happened and increased CO2 made it happen?

It was 50 degrees this morning - late April in Florida. I've never seen that before.

Ever see this before?

HAMweather: Record Events for March 2012

Total Selected Records: 26844

Rainfall: 5027

Snowfall: 695

High Temp: 10118

Low Temp: 624

Low Max Temp: 1216

High Min Temp: 9164

And?

You can't just copy and paste data. You've got to actually say what you think it means.

I think it means that the record is quite small compared to the age of the planet.
 
Prediction from 1977

03-06e.gif

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?

The fact is that around 1970 there were 6 times as many scientists predicting a warming rather than a cooling planet. Today, with 30+years more data to analyse, we've reached a clear scientific consensus: 97% of working climate scientists agree with the view that human beings are causing global warming.

That would be valid if it were possible to become a climate scientist without having to agree with AGW.
 
Prediction from 1977

03-06e.gif

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?

The fact is that around 1970 there were 6 times as many scientists predicting a warming rather than a cooling planet. Today, with 30+years more data to analyse, we've reached a clear scientific consensus: 97% of working climate scientists agree with the view that human beings are causing global warming.

That would be valid if it were possible to become a climate scientist without having to agree with AGW.

Hmmm...... Another over the top assertation without any evidence backing it.
 
So you're saying he is correct? All this happened and increased CO2 made it happen?

It was 50 degrees this morning - late April in Florida. I've never seen that before.

Ever see this before?

HAMweather: Record Events for March 2012

Total Selected Records: 26844

Rainfall: 5027

Snowfall: 695

High Temp: 10118

Low Temp: 624

Low Max Temp: 1216

High Min Temp: 9164

And?

You can't just copy and paste data. You've got to actually say what you think it means.

I think it means that the record is quite small compared to the age of the planet.

The planet is a bit over 4.5 billion years old. For most of that time, it would have been unlivable for a human being. As Homo Sap, we have been here for around 200,000 years. In the last 150 years we have actually been changing the composition of the planets atmosphere. At the present rate of change, we are going to see some serious consequence in the near future.

You stated that it was 51 degrees in Florida in late April, and that you had never seen that before, without any statement as to what that was supposed to mean. I posted the record from March, 2012 concerning the record number of high temps in the US, as well as the record number of rainfall events.

One of the primary predictions of global warming is that it will create wider and wilder weather swings, with an overall warming. That is precisely what we are seeing.
 
I get my science from Glen Beck.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9YiAkTdmj0A]Glenn Beck Barks Like A Dog On TV - YouTube[/ame]
 
Often we see posted on this board how wildly erroneous Dr. James Hansen's predictions have been. Almost always without any supportive links. So what is Dr. Hansen's record on his predictions. Here is one from an early paper in 1981. The whole paper is available at the link.

http://thedgw.org/definitionsOut/..\docs\Hansen_climate_impact_of_increasing_co2.pdf

Summary. The global temperature rose by 0.20C between the middle 1960's and
1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is
consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of
atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar
luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend
of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming
should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the
century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on
climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North
America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West
Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the
fabled Northwest Passage.

What you're saying is that Hansen predicted the temperature for 1980 correctly in 1980.

Post hoc explanations aren't predictions, dipstick.
 

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