Prediction For 2011

Discussion in 'Politics' started by PoliticalChic, Jan 1, 2011.

  1. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN

    Democratic pollster and author, makes the following prediction:

    The biggest political surprise of 2011 will be the emergence of a potentially serious third-party candidate for president in 2012. There is simply too much dissatisfaction with Washington and with our political system for this not to happen.

    Here is part of the questions he polled prior to the last election:
    4) First, Barack Obama
    Total favorable 48%
    Total unfavorable 50%
    Very favorable 32%
    Somewhat favorable 17%
    Somewhat unfavorable 8%
    Very unfavorable 42%
    Not sure 2%

    8) Okay, the Tea Party movement
    Total favorable 45%
    Total unfavorable 43%
    Very favorable 23%
    Somewhat favorable 22%
    Somewhat unfavorable 12%
    Very unfavorable 30%
    Not sure 12%

    11) Since the Obama administration has taken office, are you more or less favorable toward
    the Democratic Party, or have your feelings not changed?
    More favorable 15%
    Less favorable 49%
    My feelings have not changed 34%
    Not sure 2%

    18) Now in thinking about the upcoming November Congressional election, if there was a third
    party candidate on the ballot, would you vote for the Republican candidate, the Democratic
    candidate or the third party candidate?
    Democratic candidate 24%
    Republican candidate 25%
    Third party candidate 11%
    Not sure 40%

    19) [if Third Party] Please tell me which of the following reasons best describes why you
    would vote for a third party candidate for Congress this year.
    To send a message that we need a change 26%
    They will represent the people not the political parties 26%
    Because the two major parties do not represent your point of view 18%
    To break the partisan divide in Washington 9%
    Because the candidate would not be beholden to either party 14%
    Not sure 7%


    20)Generally speaking, how likely is it that you would vote for an Independent candidate in the upcoming November Congressional election?
    Definitely 5%
    Probably 7%
    Possibly 28%
    Not very likely 51%
    Not sure 9%

    21) Do you favor or oppose having a major third party in our country?
    Favor 51%
    Oppose 25%
    Not sure 24%

    22) How important do you think it is for us to have a major third party in our country?
    Total very important 63%
    Total not at all important 31%
    Very important 27%
    Somewhat important 37%
    Not very important 14%
    Not at all important 17%
    Not sure 5%

    23) Suppose the Tea Party were to run a candidate for Congress in your district. Would you
    prefer a Democrat, Republican, or a Tea Party candidate?
    Democrat 39%
    Republican 15%
    Tea Party 19%
    Not sure 27%

    24) If President Obama endorses a candidate for Congress or Senate are you more or less
    likely to vote for that candidate?
    More likely 24%
    Less likely 51%
    No difference 20%
    Not sure 4%

    27)Generally speaking, which major political party is closer to your views?
    Democratic Party 39%
    Republican Party 48%
    Neither 9%
    Not sure 4%

    Topic A - Topic A: What will be 2011's biggest political surprise?

    Third party? Yes or no? Win or lose?
     
  2. ba1614
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    ba1614 Silver Member

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    I predict these pricks will use every trick in the book to circumvent congress, and likely invent a few new ones before they're done.
    Anyone thinking a republican congress will change much is delusional. All it will do is force the obama and his band of merry assholes to get more creative.
     
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  3. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    *sigh*, on one hand I want to see one badly. Things are very much worse than 1992, and 19.7 million votes then, may equal 30 million now...but that doesn't win elections, the electoral college does. It would take the planets aligning and above all the perfect candidate.
     
  4. kyzr
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    kyzr Gold Member

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    Exactly right. The electoral college means that there will always be just two "national parties". The only proviso to that could be the Tea Party. We could easily take over the GOP by throwing the big money fucks out and imposing our will by sheer numbers. We have common ground, fiscal sanity, no evangelical bullshit, no other wedge issues, just back to basic politics.
     
  5. JakeStarkey
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    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    "We have common ground, fiscal sanity, no evangelical bullshit, no other wedge issues. . .". That is delusional if you think the social values conservatives will let you pilot the TP ship without them. The social values group are large enough to force you to their issues and small enough to guarantee your defeat at the end of the day.
     
  6. kyzr
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    kyzr Gold Member

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    I still don't see "social conservatism" as a wedge issue. Most of us are conservatives to begin with, my point is that I don't want the flat-earthers and strict bible-thumpers to rock the boat. We can agree on enough social issues to keep the majority party intact.
     
  7. Trajan
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    Trajan conscientia mille testes

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    like dadt and the dream act?
     
  8. mdn2000
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    mdn2000 BANNED

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    The Liberal Marxist will make it a wedge issue, its already happening here on this message board, any place the Liberal Marxist has a voice they will direct us to answer to them, even telling us there are many types of conservatives.

    How many types are there now.

    Social conservatives, NeoCons, Log Cabin Conservatives, the Far right wing conservatives, the moderate conservatives.

    There is only one conservative, the rest are the labels the liberal marxist will use to divide us.
     
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  9. JakeStarkey
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    JakeStarkey Diamond Member Supporting Member

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    mdn2000 does not even know what a marxist is. How simply laughable he is.

    The point remains. The social values conservatives are both the strength and the weakness in the GOP and the Tea Party. Need them for nomination but then watch them cause defeat in the presidential election.
     
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  10. mdn2000
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    mdn2000 BANNED

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    I know Che was an Augustinian who graduated medical school but never became a doctor, I know Che murdered a boy for stealing some food to eat, no trial, just executed by Che himself. I know Che thought Marxist got to start to revolutions in a life and was stupid enough to get caught without his asthma medicine in Bolivia trying to start his second.

    I also own all of Marx's important work. After about ten minutes of Marx's theory its painfully obvious nobody reads Marx's theory on Labor. Talk about a bore and poor writer.

    I know I burned Jakey when I wiped my boot of Jakey, it felt like I stepped in dog shit.

    Ever since then this is about the only dialogue we have.

    Suits me fine, I do not respond the same to an intellect as I respond to a fool.

    JakeStarkey is the fool. Thanks for another opportunity to respond, its a lot harder when you ignore me, that makes me believe I am not getting to you. You are weak.
     

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