DOUGLAS E. SCHOEN
Democratic pollster and author, makes the following prediction:
The biggest political surprise of 2011 will be the emergence of a potentially serious third-party candidate for president in 2012. There is simply too much dissatisfaction with Washington and with our political system for this not to happen.
Here is part of the questions he polled prior to the last election:
4) First, Barack Obama
Total favorable 48%
Total unfavorable 50%
Very favorable 32%
Somewhat favorable 17%
Somewhat unfavorable 8%
Very unfavorable 42%
Not sure 2%
8) Okay, the Tea Party movement
Total favorable 45%
Total unfavorable 43%
Very favorable 23%
Somewhat favorable 22%
Somewhat unfavorable 12%
Very unfavorable 30%
Not sure 12%
11) Since the Obama administration has taken office, are you more or less favorable toward
the Democratic Party, or have your feelings not changed?
More favorable 15%
Less favorable 49%
My feelings have not changed 34%
Not sure 2%
18) Now in thinking about the upcoming November Congressional election, if there was a third
party candidate on the ballot, would you vote for the Republican candidate, the Democratic
candidate or the third party candidate?
Democratic candidate 24%
Republican candidate 25%
Third party candidate 11%
Not sure 40%
19) [if Third Party] Please tell me which of the following reasons best describes why you
would vote for a third party candidate for Congress this year.
To send a message that we need a change 26%
They will represent the people not the political parties 26%
Because the two major parties do not represent your point of view 18%
To break the partisan divide in Washington 9%
Because the candidate would not be beholden to either party 14%
Not sure 7%
20)Generally speaking, how likely is it that you would vote for an Independent candidate in the upcoming November Congressional election?
Definitely 5%
Probably 7%
Possibly 28%
Not very likely 51%
Not sure 9%
21) Do you favor or oppose having a major third party in our country?
Favor 51%
Oppose 25%
Not sure 24%
22) How important do you think it is for us to have a major third party in our country?
Total very important 63%
Total not at all important 31%
Very important 27%
Somewhat important 37%
Not very important 14%
Not at all important 17%
Not sure 5%
23) Suppose the Tea Party were to run a candidate for Congress in your district. Would you
prefer a Democrat, Republican, or a Tea Party candidate?
Democrat 39%
Republican 15%
Tea Party 19%
Not sure 27%
24) If President Obama endorses a candidate for Congress or Senate are you more or less
likely to vote for that candidate?
More likely 24%
Less likely 51%
No difference 20%
Not sure 4%
27)Generally speaking, which major political party is closer to your views?
Democratic Party 39%
Republican Party 48%
Neither 9%
Not sure 4%
Topic A - Topic A: What will be 2011's biggest political surprise?
Third party? Yes or no? Win or lose?
Democratic pollster and author, makes the following prediction:
The biggest political surprise of 2011 will be the emergence of a potentially serious third-party candidate for president in 2012. There is simply too much dissatisfaction with Washington and with our political system for this not to happen.
Here is part of the questions he polled prior to the last election:
4) First, Barack Obama
Total favorable 48%
Total unfavorable 50%
Very favorable 32%
Somewhat favorable 17%
Somewhat unfavorable 8%
Very unfavorable 42%
Not sure 2%
8) Okay, the Tea Party movement
Total favorable 45%
Total unfavorable 43%
Very favorable 23%
Somewhat favorable 22%
Somewhat unfavorable 12%
Very unfavorable 30%
Not sure 12%
11) Since the Obama administration has taken office, are you more or less favorable toward
the Democratic Party, or have your feelings not changed?
More favorable 15%
Less favorable 49%
My feelings have not changed 34%
Not sure 2%
18) Now in thinking about the upcoming November Congressional election, if there was a third
party candidate on the ballot, would you vote for the Republican candidate, the Democratic
candidate or the third party candidate?
Democratic candidate 24%
Republican candidate 25%
Third party candidate 11%
Not sure 40%
19) [if Third Party] Please tell me which of the following reasons best describes why you
would vote for a third party candidate for Congress this year.
To send a message that we need a change 26%
They will represent the people not the political parties 26%
Because the two major parties do not represent your point of view 18%
To break the partisan divide in Washington 9%
Because the candidate would not be beholden to either party 14%
Not sure 7%
20)Generally speaking, how likely is it that you would vote for an Independent candidate in the upcoming November Congressional election?
Definitely 5%
Probably 7%
Possibly 28%
Not very likely 51%
Not sure 9%
21) Do you favor or oppose having a major third party in our country?
Favor 51%
Oppose 25%
Not sure 24%
22) How important do you think it is for us to have a major third party in our country?
Total very important 63%
Total not at all important 31%
Very important 27%
Somewhat important 37%
Not very important 14%
Not at all important 17%
Not sure 5%
23) Suppose the Tea Party were to run a candidate for Congress in your district. Would you
prefer a Democrat, Republican, or a Tea Party candidate?
Democrat 39%
Republican 15%
Tea Party 19%
Not sure 27%
24) If President Obama endorses a candidate for Congress or Senate are you more or less
likely to vote for that candidate?
More likely 24%
Less likely 51%
No difference 20%
Not sure 4%
27)Generally speaking, which major political party is closer to your views?
Democratic Party 39%
Republican Party 48%
Neither 9%
Not sure 4%
Topic A - Topic A: What will be 2011's biggest political surprise?
Third party? Yes or no? Win or lose?
