Potentially Scary Stuff: Asteroid has High Probabilty of impact in 2036...

[insein]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0,14493,1660485,00.html

It's called Apophis. It's 390m wide. And it could hit Earth in 31 years time

· Scientists call for plans to change asteroid's path
· Developing technology could take decades

Alok Jha
Wednesday December 7, 2005
The Guardian


In Egyptian myth, Apophis was the ancient spirit of evil and destruction, a demon that was determined to plunge the world into eternal darkness.
A fitting name, astronomers reasoned, for a menace now hurtling towards Earth from outerspace. Scientists are monitoring the progress of a 390-metre wide asteroid discovered last year that is potentially on a collision course with the planet, and are imploring governments to decide on a strategy for dealing with it.

Nasa has estimated that an impact from Apophis, which has an outside chance of hitting the Earth in 2036, would release more than 100,000 times the energy released in the nuclear blast over Hiroshima. Thousands of square kilometres would be directly affected by the blast but the whole of the Earth would see the effects of the dust released into the atmosphere.
And, scientists insist, there is actually very little time left to decide. At a recent meeting of experts in near-Earth objects (NEOs) in London, scientists said it could take decades to design, test and build the required technology to deflect the asteroid. Monica Grady, an expert in meteorites at the Open University, said: "It's a question of when, not if, a near Earth object collides with Earth. Many of the smaller objects break up when they reach the Earth's atmosphere and have no impact. However, a NEO larger than 1km [wide] will collide with Earth every few hundred thousand years and a NEO larger than 6km, which could cause mass extinction, will collide with Earth every hundred million years. We are overdue for a big one."

Apophis had been intermittently tracked since its discovery in June last year but, in December, it started causing serious concern. Projecting the orbit of the asteroid into the future, astronomers had calculated that the odds of it hitting the Earth in 2029 were alarming. As more observations came in, the odds got higher.

Having more than 20 years warning of potential impact might seem plenty of time. But, at last week's meeting, Andrea Carusi, president of the Spaceguard Foundation, said that the time for governments to make decisions on what to do was now, to give scientists time to prepare mitigation missions. At the peak of concern, Apophis asteroid was placed at four out of 10 on the Torino scale - a measure of the threat posed by an NEO where 10 is a certain collision which could cause a global catastrophe. This was the highest of any asteroid in recorded history and it had a 1 in 37 chance of hitting the Earth. The threat of a collision in 2029 was eventually ruled out at the end of last year.

Alan Fitzsimmons, an astronomer from Queen's University Belfast, said: "When it does pass close to us on April 13 2029, the Earth will deflect it and change its orbit. There's a small possibility that if it passes through a particular point in space, the so-called keyhole, ... the Earth's gravity will change things so that when it comes back around again in 2036, it will collide with us." The chance of Apophis passing through the keyhole, a 600-metre patch of space, is 1 in 5,500 based on current information.

There are no shortage of ideas on how to deflect asteroids. The Advanced Concepts Team at the European Space Agency have led the effort in designing a range of satellites and rockets to nudge asteroids on a collision course for Earth into a different orbit.

No technology has been left unconsidered, even potentially dangerous ideas such as nuclear powered spacecraft. "The advantage of nuclear propulsion is a lot of power," said Prof Fitzsimmons. "The negative thing is that ... we haven't done it yet. Whereas with solar electric propulsion, there are several spacecraft now that do use this technology so we're fairly confident it would work."

The favoured method is also potentially the easiest - throwing a spacecraft at an asteroid to change its direction. Esa plans to test this idea with its Don Quixote mission, where two satellites will be sent to an asteroid. One of them, Hidalgo, will collide with the asteroid at high speed while the other, Sancho, will measure the change in the object's orbit. Decisions on the actual design of these probes will be made in the coming months, with launch expected some time in the next decade. One idea that seems to have no support from astronomers is the use of explosives.

Prof Fitzsimmons. "If you explode too close to impact, perhaps you'll get hit by several fragments rather than one, so you spread out the area of damage."

In September, scientists at Strathclyde and Glasgow universities began computer simulations to work out the feasibility of changing the directions of asteroids on a collision course for Earth. In spring next year, there will be another opportunity for radar observations of Apophis that will help astronomers work out possible future orbits of the asteroid more accurately.

If, at that stage, they cannot rule out an impact with Earth in 2036, the next chance to make better observations will not be until 2013. Nasa has argued that a final decision on what to do about Apophis will have to be made at that stage.

"It may be a decision in 2013 whether or not to go ahead with a full-blown mitigation mission, but we need to start planning it before 2013," said Prof Fitzsimmons. In 2029, astronomers will know for sure if Apophis will pose a threat in 2036. If the worst-case scenarios turn out to be true and the Earth is not prepared, it will be too late. "If we wait until 2029, it would seem unlikely that you'd be able to do anything about 2036," said Mr Yates.

This is some scary shit.

 

[Mr. P]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/space/article/0,14493,1660485,00.html



This is some scary shit.

And a very good reason to develop star wars technology.
Satellite based lasers.

 

[insein]

my fear is that the current governments will never be able to settle on a project of this magnitude. Most governments cant even settle amongst themselves let alone other countries. Just look at the UN.

I think that if this does come to pass, it has 2 possible outcomes. One is that we put down our petty differences and join to stop the end of the world. Two (and probably more likely unfortunately) the corrupt governments of the world throw a wrench into the plans to save the planet by demanding special dispensations etc for each and everyone of them. Democrats in this coutnry will insist that its a military ploy to get more funding for the big bad US military. Basically, petty politics will end the human race. Kind of ironic i guess.

 

[Hobbit]

my fear is that the current governments will never be able to settle on a project of this magnitude. Most governments cant even settle amongst themselves let alone other countries. Just look at the UN.

I think that if this does come to pass, it has 2 possible outcomes. One is that we put down our petty differences and join to stop the end of the world. Two (and probably more likely unfortunately) the corrupt governments of the world throw a wrench into the plans to save the planet by demanding special dispensations etc for each and everyone of them. Democrats in this coutnry will insist that its a military ploy to get more funding for the big bad US military. Basically, petty politics will end the human race. Kind of ironic i guess.

Actually, what will happen is we, the United States of frickin' America, will nuke the bloody thing out of existence. I mean, we've got enough nukes to destroy this rock. Something tells me that an asteroid will be much smaller. And to hell with France. History has shown us that a U.S. president will never sell out the country in the face of a blatant national crisis. More subtle ones are another matter, though.

 

[insein]

Actually, what will happen is we, the United States of frickin' America, will nuke the bloody thing out of existence. I mean, we've got enough nukes to destroy this rock. Something tells me that an asteroid will be much smaller. And to hell with France. History has shown us that a U.S. president will never sell out the country in the face of a blatant national crisis. More subtle ones are another matter, though.

LEts just hope the president is a conservative and not a spineless, poll-watching lib.

 

[Hobbit]

LEts just hope the president is a conservative and not a spineless, poll-watching lib.

Even if the president doesn't want to do it, I'm sure some generals would get together and do it behind his back, no matter the consequences.

 

[dmp]

Maybe if we set off a nuke, Aliens will find us and share warp-drive technology with us.

 

[insein]

Maybe if we set off a nuke, Aliens will find us and share warp-drive technology with us.

Dont you ever watch Star Trek? If we set off a nuke, the aliens will just think we're primitive morons bent on killing ourselves and thus not worthy of acknoledgement. You see all aliens are hippies man.

 

[theim]

SDI? Forget that. The Finnish already beat us in inventing proto-Imperial Walkers. We need to modify the shuttle and crank out a United States Space Navy ASAP! We'll blast that asteroid with our warships! And a big laser from our base on the moon!

 

[Hobbit]

SDI? Forget that. The Finnish already beat us in inventing proto-Imperial Walkers. We need to modify the shuttle and crank out a United States Space Navy ASAP! We'll blast that asteroid with our warships! And a big laser from our base on the moon!

That's no moon!

(note: The above is an actual moon of Saturn by the name of Mimas.)

 

[insein]

SDI? Forget that. The Finnish already beat us in inventing proto-Imperial Walkers. We need to modify the shuttle and crank out a United States Space Navy ASAP! We'll blast that asteroid with our warships! And a big laser from our base on the moon!

The "Laser"

 

[dmp]

We like Da Moon!

 

[insein]

That's no moon!

(note: The above is an actual moon of Saturn by the name of Mimas.)

mimas is greek for "death star" right?

 

[rcajun90]

And a very good reason to develop star wars technology.
Satellite based lasers.

You think government should protect you from a disaster????

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
:rotflmao:

 

[insein]

You think government should protect you from a disaster????

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
:rotflmao:

Hey if i had a couple trillion dollars lieing around, i'd go build and asteroid smashing machine. Unfortunately government has all of our money. They need to let the military though build the smashing machine.

 

[Mr. P]

You think government should protect you from a disaster????

MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
:rotflmao:

Nope, I think we should let La handle it. We've all seen how competent they were with the levee money, ya know. Now go back to yer whining.

 

[rcajun90]

Hey if i had a couple trillion dollars lieing around, i'd go build and asteroid smashing machine. Unfortunately government has all of our money. They need to let the military though build the smashing machine.

That’s what’s wrong with you conservative Republican types. All you want to do is go around and blow stuff up. Why blow things up first? Why not try to talk to the asteroid? The Democratic solution would be better. We could land on the giant asteroid and get to know it. The astronauts could hug the asteroid and talk to it. In the end we might find we really aren’t very different. Surely after talking to it and getting to know it we could persuade it to turn away from the Earth. If talking doesn’t work then we must set out to destroy the asteroid. Plan two would be for everyone around the world to hold hands and concentrate imagining the asteroid breaking up into tiny pieces. Surely with all those brain wave going out there it would destroy the asteroid.

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL!!!

 

[no1tovote4]

Whatup, rjcajun? How is the rebuilding progressing in LA?

 

[rcajun90]

Nope, I think we should let La handle it. We've all seen how competent they were with the levee money, ya know. Now go back to yer whining.

There you go again switching the subject. You stated that it wasn’t governments basic jobs to protect it citizens. Any Middle School student that had a good teacher someplace down the line would know that protecting its citizens is job one of any government. That’s why terrorists blow up innocent people in an attempt to bring down the government and of course because they are evil and insane.

Well the Coonass solution since we are all Coonasses in Louisiana would be a two fold plan. Our fist attempt would be to create a giant space net in order to catch the asteroid. If it moves then you can cook it. Why waste all that meat? We could bring in Paul Produmme and Emeril. Before you know it…BAM!....asteroid gumbo. If that doesn’t work then we could send Blanco up on the space shuttle (Enough fuel to go up but not to come down). She could attempt an EVC (Extra Vehicular Cry). Surely the asteroid would fill up with tears and turn away from the Earth.
:rotflmao:
MERRY CHRISTMASS TO ALL !!!

 

[rcajun90]

Whatup, rjcajun? How is the rebuilding progressing in LA?

The rebuilding is going slow. Most people here are pretty angry that the levees will only be built back to pre-Katrina standards. Without bigger and better levees or at least the promise that they are coming somewhere down the line big business will not return. Most people will not return without better levees where it is prone to flood. There are FEMA trailer cities here and in Metairie. Some poor souls are still living in tents down in Orleans. In short slowly but surely things are getting better on the Southshore but hearing that news about the levees provided the locals with a bit of shock, awe and now anger.

On the positive side my area of St. Tammany is booming. A boom most of us didn’t want. We moved here to escape city life but the city is here. Traffic is a nightmare but getting slowly better as people move from here south into Metairie. The people from St. Bernard (about 80,000) are not going back. I wish those that want to turn their backs on Louisiana could meet and talk with those children and their parents. They are not the welfare types but simply hard working fishermen and oil workers. Good people that have had their lives destroyed. They are adjusting and adapting. A Chalmette man I know is now shrimping out of Houma (an area Southwest of New Orleans on the coast) while his wife is teaching at Southeastern Louisiana University in Hammond. Their son is living and going to school in Covington. Houma is about an hour and half drive from Hammond and Covington. That is one of thousands of stories of how people are putting their lives back together without government help. Thanks for asking.

Here’s a positive article about the rebuilding from Forbes.
http://www.forbes.com/home/travel/2005/12/06/neworleans-postkatrina-travel-cx_db_1206orleans_ls.html