Post your climate predictions

[ScienceRocks]

Mine are based on the fact that I see this solar decrease in solar output lasting for about 20-30 years. I will say very little warming should be expected over the next few decades, with a chance of another warm period by later this century as I no longer believe that we will reenter a little ice age. Who can be sure? So it is up to phases of 50-75 years based on my knowledge of the way the cycles work. I don't forecast for a negative amount of cooling during this lower solar minimum phase because of the fact that the maximum was the biggest in 2,000 years and helped to warm the oceans so much that is should remain fairly stable. I've also studied the trends of the last 10-15 years, which have stablized.

All numbers are based on being warmer or colder then today's levels.
5 years +.05f
10 years +.08f
25 years +.25f
50 years +.025
100 years +.6

 

[Zander]

.

the planet might warm or it might cool. Humans will have nothing to do with it either way....

 

[Mr. H.]

Is there a chance of meatballs in there somewhere?

 

[westwall]

I see a general cooling trend for the next 20 or so years. Maybe more, though I hope not.

 

[RadiomanATL]

It's going to be warm, bordering on hot, for the next 4 months, followed by a cooling trend and eventually downright cold starting 6-7 months from now.

 

[Old Rocks]

Mine are based on the fact that I see this solar decrease in solar output lasting for about 20-30 years. I will say very little warming should be expected over the next few decades, with a chance of another warm period by later this century as I no longer believe that we will reenter a little ice age. Who can be sure? So it is up to phases of 50-75 years based on my knowledge of the way the cycles work. I don't forecast for a negative amount of cooling during this lower solar minimum phase because of the fact that the maximum was the biggest in 2,000 years and helped to warm the oceans so much that is should remain fairly stable. I've also studied the trends of the last 10-15 years, which have stablized.

All numbers are based on being warmer or colder then today's levels.
5 years +.05f
10 years +.08f
25 years +.25f
50 years +.025
100 years +.6

Thank you. Finally someone ready to do something other than yap. Basing my estimates on what is happening at present, and the increase in GHGs expected in the next fifty years, here is what I expect.

5 years. +1 F
10 years + 1.5 F
25 years + 3 F
50 years + 5 F
100 years + 10 F

I really don't expect to see the fourth and fifth predictions. But I will most likely be here to heckle or be heckled on the first three.

 

[westwall]

It's going to be warm, bordering on hot, for the next 4 months, followed by a cooling trend and eventually downright cold starting 6-7 months from now.

Man,

It's been cold here all year long! We finally had a nice spring day two days ago and since then I've had a Standing Wave right over my house! Temps were back down into the 60's and it looks like rain tonight and tomorrow! Oh yeah I live in the DESERT! Well near it at least!

 

[gslack]

Mine are based on the fact that I see this solar decrease in solar output lasting for about 20-30 years. I will say very little warming should be expected over the next few decades, with a chance of another warm period by later this century as I no longer believe that we will reenter a little ice age. Who can be sure? So it is up to phases of 50-75 years based on my knowledge of the way the cycles work. I don't forecast for a negative amount of cooling during this lower solar minimum phase because of the fact that the maximum was the biggest in 2,000 years and helped to warm the oceans so much that is should remain fairly stable. I've also studied the trends of the last 10-15 years, which have stablized.

All numbers are based on being warmer or colder then today's levels.
5 years +.05f
10 years +.08f
25 years +.25f
50 years +.025
100 years +.6

Thank you. Finally someone ready to do something other than yap. Basing my estimates on what is happening at present, and the increase in GHGs expected in the next fifty years, here is what I expect.

5 years. +1 F
10 years + 1.5 F
25 years + 3 F
50 years + 5 F
100 years + 10 F

I really don't expect to see the fourth and fifth predictions. But I will most likely be here to heckle or be heckled on the first three.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

+1 in the next 5 years from GHG's ?

Why is it we have only had 1.4 in the last 160 plus years? What a fucking pthetic tool..

Tell ya what. I will go out on a limb and make a prediction.....

I predict that the climate will change. Some of it man may contribute to some very very small degree. And the rest will come from natural occurrences.... i know I know, hey what can I say im a risk taker...

 

[Big Fitz]

I predict we're all going to die in August... on a Tuesday. The whole world in one giant freezy burning floody blizzard-drought of oil, locusts and high fructose corn syrup with a chance of early morning fog.

But the sunset is going to be fantastic.

 

[Big Fitz]

I see a general cooling trend for the next 20 or so years. Maybe more, though I hope not.

I predict the weather and temperature will oscillate (go back and forth for those chicken littles in the audience) and remain pretty much as we've seen it for the last 200 years plus or minus a degree or two.

 

[Samson]

I predict that within the next 8 hours, there will be a blazing heat and light storm begining in the East that will last throughout the day.

 

[Big Fitz]

apparently split shift combined with bad sleep and being a bit punchy loads up my humor gland.

 

[westwall]

I predict we're all going to die in August... on a Tuesday. The whole world in one giant freezy burning floody blizzard-drought of oil, locusts and high fructose corn syrup with a chance of early morning fog.

But the sunset is going to be fantastic.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Another reason I don't cool us down is based on past warm periods like the Mid evil one that lasted from about 900 to 1000-1200 Ad(200-300 years) and another that happened during the roman times of 300bc to around 300 Ad(500-600 years). Based on this it makes sense that this period of warm weather would last some what longer then 80-100 year, we may only be half way done. The little ice age had 3 grand minimums with one being the fox, Maunder, sporer min, ect. Which lasted from 1300 ad to 1850 ad. 500 to 550 years.


This is years ago. Meaning 100 years would be 1910 and 500 years ago would be 1510.

 

[Modbert]

As Carlin would say: "Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning."

 

[ScienceRocks]

This shows that the earlier part was a cold phase with much colder global temperatures and then we went into a warm phase, with much warmer global temperatures. Following closely with solar forcing. Overall it fits very well.

With the temperatures below. Solar forcing is adds into its self into a surplus and as long as there is a surplus then we see warming. Of course it took until the 1980s to finally break the back of other factors and for us to warm up as more energy gets into the system. So this is another reason that we're 20 years away from any cooling from this solar min.

 

[Old Rocks]

It takes about 30 to 50 years for the inertia in the system to react completely to the increases in GHGs. So what we are experiancing right now, ice melt, increasing warmth, ect., is reflecting the level of GHGs in the atmosphere in 1980. In the meantime, we are seeing the Arctic Ocean clathrates starting to emit in a major way. And the permafrost is emitting in a big way, both CO2 and CH4. But the ocean clathrates are the real danger.

While there was a minor increase in the TSI in the first part of the 20th century, in the latter part, there was a slight decrease. And the temperatures continued to climb. At the same TSI, if the GHGs increase, then the retained heat from the absorbtion of the outgoing radiation from the earth will increase the atmospheric heat content. Which will increase the temperature of the oceans. Which will cause the clathrates to outgas. See the following site;

Methane Catastrophe

 

[Samson]

Does anyone else find it odd that the "Perfect Temperatures" on the graph coincide with the Nazi Party being in Power?

 

[del]

light, interspersed with periods of darkness.

 

[konradv]

You can't take the past as a template for the future, if underlying conditions have changed. We emit more carbon in a day than the earth's volcanoes spew out in a year. It just makes me shake my head when some say we can't possibly be having an effect.