Post debate swing state polls

[Joshuatree]

Rasmussen Reports

Florida: Romney 49% Obama 47%

Election 2012: Florida President - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[Joshuatree]

Ohio: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

Election 2012: Ohio President - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[Joshuatree]

Virginia: Romney 49%, Obama 48%

Election 2012: Virginia President - Rasmussen Reports™

 

[Joshuatree]

The first post-debate poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos indicates that President Obama is still leading Mitt Romney in voting intention, by 48% to 43% – but the gap has closed from 48% to 39% pre-debate. I am wary of using a relatively untested online (not phone) poll for analysis, but the survey trends do a good job illustrating why Obama is vulnerable, and yet still ahead in this post-debate environment.

It usually takes time for campaign events to fully sink in with the American electorate. Consider the Democrats' highly successful convention. Obama started to gain points immediately, but it wasn't until about week after the the convention that we fully understood the full ramifications of how it shook up the race.

Immediate public reaction to the debate isn't as important as how the media portrays the debate in news coverage. It would seem that this coverage is only going to drive more supporters into the Romney camp. The initial reaction on Twitter, a good source for trends, was 3:2 in favor of Romney winning the debate. That reaction jumped to 4:1 after the debate when the conventional wisdom began to take hold. On Thursday night, Public Policy Polling found Virginia voters declaring the winner of the debate to be Romney by a 3:1 margin. That's a wider spread than any of insta-post debate national polls.