Pollster pulls out of Fla., NC and Va., says Obama can’t win there

[jillian]

You might want to go back and look over my other polling threads. I would challenge that statement with total comfort.

From what I understand, Silver called 99.9% of the last two election cycles correctly. Is your track record that good?

"call' as in how exactly?

the concept difficult for you?

 

[Trajan]

From what I understand, Silver called 99.9% of the last two election cycles correctly. Is your track record that good?

"call' as in how exactly?

the concept difficult for you?

I know anything lacking detail appeals to you, simple is as simple does, so here , call as in- ... accuracy in number of seats turned over? accuracy in his polling outcome by % per seat, calling obama the winner? by what %? better than pew and Ras.?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Biden seals it for Romney tonight, Obama wins NY and CA all 55 others go to Romney

 

[BluePhantom]

My guess is that Ryan will score a thin victory tomorrow resulting in a 0.5% swing.....

CNN Poll on debate winner: Ryan 48%, Biden 44% – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs

A CNN poll of debate watchers released following Thursday's matchup between Rep. Paul Ryan and Vice President Joe Biden showed 48% of respondents named Ryan the winner and 44% said Biden won.



I gotta tell you....you don't know the pressure associated with being right all the time. We'll see about that 0.5% swing in the next couple days.

 

[mamooth]

CNN itself states they oversampled Republicans to get those numbers.

Polling Center: CNN Poll: Who won the VP debate? - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
---
SPECIAL NOTE OF CAUTION #2: The sample of debate-watchers in this poll were 31% Democratic and 33% Republican. That indicates that the sample of debate watchers is about eight points more Republican than an average CNN poll of all Americans, so the respondents were more Republican than the general public.
---

So, shift 8 points ... yet another poll showing a solid Biden win.

Looks like BluePhantom pooched it yet another time, continuing a near-perfect record of getting everything wrong. Due to his prediction, we can be absolutely sure polls will keep swinging towards the Democrats.

 

[BluePhantom]

CNN itself states they oversampled Republicans to get those numbers.

Polling Center: CNN Poll: Who won the VP debate? - Elections & Politics from CNN.com
---
SPECIAL NOTE OF CAUTION #2: The sample of debate-watchers in this poll were 31% Democratic and 33% Republican. That indicates that the sample of debate watchers is about eight points more Republican than an average CNN poll of all Americans, so the respondents were more Republican than the general public.
---

So, shift 8 points ... yet another poll showing a solid Biden win.

Looks like BluePhantom pooched it yet another time, continuing a near-perfect record of getting everything wrong. Due to his prediction, we can be absolutely sure polls will keep swinging towards the Democrats.

You might want to check RCP today, Corky. They are swinging toward Romney across the board. Additionally, the CNN statement is pretty misleading. If you base their sample on registered voters, then yes republicans are oversampled, however if you base it on a generic likely voter model it's right on the nose. Nice try though.

 

[Statistikhengst]

After the Biden implosion tonight CA and NY will be in play

California, 2012:

Obama 60.16%
Romney 37.07%
margin: Obama +23.09% (blowout margin)


New York State, 2012:

Obama 63.35%
Romney 35.17%
margin: Obama +28.18% (even bigger blowout margin)

Yepp, those states were in play.



Any other of the 57 you want to claim were in play???

:rofl.

 

[AceRothstein]

Nate Silver weighted the poll pretty highly. I'll trust his judgement over yours.

Nate Silver is a liberal tool. He's about as unbiased as Ed Schultz and Sean Hannity

meanwhile he's dead on. and he's been very straightforward about how things are trending.

Difference. He calls the trends after they happen and I have been calling them before they happen...and I have been closer.

LOL, you're a hack.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

After the Biden implosion tonight CA and NY will be in play

California, 2012:

Obama 60.16%
Romney 37.07%
margin: Obama +23.09% (blowout margin)


New York State, 2012:

Obama 63.35%
Romney 35.17%
margin: Obama +28.18% (even bigger blowout margin)

Yepp, those states were in play.



Any other of the 57 you want to claim were in play???

:rofl.

How long will you be away if Hillary is not the nominee?

 

[ScienceRocks]

After the Biden implosion tonight CA and NY will be in play

California, 2012:

Obama 60.16%
Romney 37.07%
margin: Obama +23.09% (blowout margin)


New York State, 2012:

Obama 63.35%
Romney 35.17%
margin: Obama +28.18% (even bigger blowout margin)

Yepp, those states were in play.



Any other of the 57 you want to claim were in play???

:rofl.

How long will you be away if Hillary is not the nominee?

There's zero chance that a loserterian can do better then Obama in those states. hahaha A cruz, a paul or a shiturum would get fucked by at least 40 points. hahaha

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Dems 2016: the last 8 years were a disaster! Vote for change, only this time for the better

 

[CrusaderFrank]

After the Biden implosion tonight CA and NY will be in play

California, 2012:

Obama 60.16%
Romney 37.07%
margin: Obama +23.09% (blowout margin)


New York State, 2012:

Obama 63.35%
Romney 35.17%
margin: Obama +28.18% (even bigger blowout margin)

Yepp, those states were in play.



Any other of the 57 you want to claim were in play???

:rofl.

How long will you be away if Hillary is not the nominee?

There's zero chance that a loserterian can do better then Obama in those states. hahaha A cruz, a paul or a shiturum would get fucked by at least 40 points. hahaha

We'll see what happens after Trump sends all the illegals back and prevents dead people from voting

 

[Old Rocks]

So Mr. Crusader Frank is a Trump supporter. LOL. He'll gladly join you in your hollow moon.LOL

 

[CrusaderFrank]

So Mr. Crusader Frank is a Trump supporter. LOL. He'll gladly join you in your hollow moon.LOL

There's far, more real science behind the notion that the Moon might be hollow and artificial than there is for a wisp of CO2 driving climate on planet Earth. I don't even have to alter any data, the facts speak for themselves

Score

Me: 1

AGWCult: 0

 

[rdean]

Dems 2016: the last 8 years were a disaster! Vote for change, only this time for the better

Millions of new jobs.
Stock market highest it's ever been.
Bin Laden is dead.
Trade court rulings on the side of the US in rubber and steel.
The US has become the number one producer of energy.
Millions now have health care.
Republicans, angry the job they started under Bush wasn't finished, naturally call this a "disaster".

 

[rdean]

After the Biden implosion tonight CA and NY will be in play

California, 2012:

Obama 60.16%
Romney 37.07%
margin: Obama +23.09% (blowout margin)


New York State, 2012:

Obama 63.35%
Romney 35.17%
margin: Obama +28.18% (even bigger blowout margin)

Yepp, those states were in play.



Any other of the 57 you want to claim were in play???

:rofl.

How long will you be away if Hillary is not the nominee?

There's zero chance that a loserterian can do better then Obama in those states. hahaha A cruz, a paul or a shiturum would get fucked by at least 40 points. hahaha

We'll see what happens after Trump sends all the illegals back and prevents dead people from voting

Illegals never voted. They can't.
Trump needs 47% of the Hispanic vote. He is now polling about 9%.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Dems 2016: the last 8 years were a disaster! Vote for change, only this time for the better

Millions of new jobs.
Stock market highest it's ever been.
Bin Laden is dead.
Trade court rulings on the side of the US in rubber and steel.
The US has become the number one producer of energy.
Millions now have health care.
Republicans, angry the job they started under Bush wasn't finished, naturally call this a "disaster".

Bin Laden dead along with most of Iraq. Did Obama have bin Laden killed so that Val Jarrett could run Al Qaeda?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

After the Biden implosion tonight CA and NY will be in play

California, 2012:

Obama 60.16%
Romney 37.07%
margin: Obama +23.09% (blowout margin)


New York State, 2012:

Obama 63.35%
Romney 35.17%
margin: Obama +28.18% (even bigger blowout margin)

Yepp, those states were in play.



Any other of the 57 you want to claim were in play???

:rofl.

How long will you be away if Hillary is not the nominee?

There's zero chance that a loserterian can do better then Obama in those states. hahaha A cruz, a paul or a shiturum would get fucked by at least 40 points. hahaha

We'll see what happens after Trump sends all the illegals back and prevents dead people from voting

Illegals never voted. They can't.
Trump needs 47% of the Hispanic vote. He is now polling about 9%.

Riiiiiiiiiiight, they're here illegally but otherwise they obey all other laws.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

La Raza Promotes WaPo Guide To Voting Without an ID The Daily Caller

 

[rdean]

Dems 2016: the last 8 years were a disaster! Vote for change, only this time for the better

Millions of new jobs.
Stock market highest it's ever been.
Bin Laden is dead.
Trade court rulings on the side of the US in rubber and steel.
The US has become the number one producer of energy.
Millions now have health care.
Republicans, angry the job they started under Bush wasn't finished, naturally call this a "disaster".

Bin Laden dead along with most of Iraq. Did Obama have bin Laden killed so that Val Jarrett could run Al Qaeda?

Bush and the GOP stopped looking for Bin Laden. They were busy with other things. Like redistributing the wealth of the nation to the top 1%.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Dems 2016: the last 8 years were a disaster! Vote for change, only this time for the better

Millions of new jobs.
Stock market highest it's ever been.
Bin Laden is dead.
Trade court rulings on the side of the US in rubber and steel.
The US has become the number one producer of energy.
Millions now have health care.
Republicans, angry the job they started under Bush wasn't finished, naturally call this a "disaster".

Bin Laden dead along with most of Iraq. Did Obama have bin Laden killed so that Val Jarrett could run Al Qaeda?

Bush and the GOP stopped looking for Bin Laden. They were busy with other things. Like redistributing the wealth of the nation to the top 1%.

We were busy winning Iraq, Obama was clearing the decks for ISIS and AQ