Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

[longknife]

The final act of the presidential campaign opens today with two new polls showing the race between Obama and Romney tightening. New polls, released this morning, from ABC/WaPo and Politico both show Obama's lead nationally has been cut to 2 points, 49-47. Also, in both polls, Romney leads Obama among Independents by 4 points.

Obviously, if Romney is leading among independents by 4, yet trailing overall by 2 points, both polls have probably sampled more Democrats. Indeed, the WaPo poll is D+5. This is a big improvement over past WaPo polls, which assumed that Democrats would have a bigger turnout than 2008's D+7 electorate. I think today's poll is still overly generous to Democrats, but it is more realistic than their previous polls. Politico's internals aren't yet available, but in the past their samples have been fairly reasonable.

The economy is clearly weighing Obama down. 81% of voters rate the economy as "not so good" or poor. In the WaPo poll, 60% of registered voters think the country is on the wrong track. A majority of RV disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, 47-52.

Interestingly, voters are now split on Obama's handling of foreign affairs, with 49% approving and 48% disapproving.

More troubling for Obama, a majority of voters, 53%, are not confident the economy will improve over the next year or two if Obama is reelected. Given that the economy is the defining issue of the campaign, this is a worrisome sign for the President's reelection.

The media spent the month of September trying to convince the public that the race was already over. This morning we learn, however, that it has just begun.

From Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

 

[Truthmatters]

Oh now you like the polls?

 

[NYcarbineer]

The ABC poll represents a 1 point gain for Obama from the last time it was taken.

The Politico poll represents a 1 point loss for Obama from the last time it was taken.

So no, these polls do not show the race tightening.

 

[candycorn]

The ABC poll represents a 1 point gain for Obama from the last time it was taken.

The Politico poll represents a 1 point loss for Obama from the last time it was taken.

So no, these polls do not show the race tightening.

The OP shows the author has a screw or two loose though.

 

[mascale]

So someone is noting the below. The move to national optimism possibly means that it finally rained somewhere, even in the Red States: Where the "victims" are located. The likability gap would be better stated, ". . . .while on the other hand, 71% of those polled consider Romney to be an asshole, first-class!"
___________________________

. A move toward national optimism: As we have seen in a few recent national polls, the Post-ABC poll now shows an appreciable movement toward those willing to say the country is lurching in the right direction. Thirty eight percent said things are now going in the right direction, the highest that number has been in Post-ABC polling since January 2011. In just the last month, the “right direction” number has jumped nine points. It’s not immediately clear why people are suddenly feeling better about the country’s path — the economic indicators remain mixed — but there is now enough data from enough different sources to conclude there is some clear movement toward optimism.

4. The massive likability gap: In an election full of tight margins, Obama continues to hold a massive edge over Romney on the question of who is the “more friendly and likable person”. Sixty-two percent named Obama while 29 percent chose Romney, a massive 33-point gap that Romney has been unable to diminish even with a convention that was designed to soften the image of him as a ruthless businessman. At issue is how much the likability question will matter to voting behavior. We are of the belief that people vote for president less on issues than on their sense of whether a candidate “gets” them. If that’s true, then the likability gap is meaningful. But, there is also an argument to be made that in difficult economic times like these, who you like as a candidate is less important than who you think can get the job done.
____________________________

Even Hollywood understands about "assholes." An empty chair on stage is really not one. . . .whereas some improv stunts are just. . . .silly. . .is probably not how little kids say it anymore!

There are still forty-odd days to turn things around. . .or get them to stand up straight. . . or something!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(So actually, if it comes down to Romney v. Al Gore: Then Al Gore. . . .Is probably even better qualified for the job!)

 

[mascale]

To corroborate the shift in to more upbeat optimism is the major swing in how voters seem to be hearing news about the economy.

Only a year ago, virtually everyone was heaing only bad news. Now the only people hearing mostly bad news watch the Romney-Ryan ads, and so they are Republicans.

Independents are hearing far less bad economic news.

Democrats are hearing hardly any bad economic news at all!

How The Economy Collapsed (As a Political Issue)

Since the subject of victims has not been raised(?), just possible the Romeny-Ryan voters had followed along Bain Capital advice, invested heavily, and got caught inthe crash. Not that many of the others got all the much of the Bush deficit spending, sent to the already prosperous to lose in the crash(?)!

Romney understands business, like that(?)!

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Many now come to Lands of Many Nations: Still rolling the dice, not expecting a crash at all, anytime soon!)

 

[ABikerSailor]

The final act of the presidential campaign opens today with two new polls showing the race between Obama and Romney tightening. New polls, released this morning, from ABC/WaPo and Politico both show Obama's lead nationally has been cut to 2 points, 49-47. Also, in both polls, Romney leads Obama among Independents by 4 points.

Obviously, if Romney is leading among independents by 4, yet trailing overall by 2 points, both polls have probably sampled more Democrats. Indeed, the WaPo poll is D+5. This is a big improvement over past WaPo polls, which assumed that Democrats would have a bigger turnout than 2008's D+7 electorate. I think today's poll is still overly generous to Democrats, but it is more realistic than their previous polls. Politico's internals aren't yet available, but in the past their samples have been fairly reasonable.

The economy is clearly weighing Obama down. 81% of voters rate the economy as "not so good" or poor. In the WaPo poll, 60% of registered voters think the country is on the wrong track. A majority of RV disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, 47-52.

Interestingly, voters are now split on Obama's handling of foreign affairs, with 49% approving and 48% disapproving.

More troubling for Obama, a majority of voters, 53%, are not confident the economy will improve over the next year or two if Obama is reelected. Given that the economy is the defining issue of the campaign, this is a worrisome sign for the President's reelection.

The media spent the month of September trying to convince the public that the race was already over. This morning we learn, however, that it has just begun.

From Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

Sorry, but I don't really regard Breitbart TV as anything other than a far right wing site that will try to spin anything to the benefit of their side, no matter how much fuzzy math they have to use.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The ABC poll represents a 1 point gain for Obama from the last time it was taken.

The Politico poll represents a 1 point loss for Obama from the last time it was taken.

So no, these polls do not show the race tightening.

The OP shows the author has a screw or two loose though.

He appears to be another one of those start a thread then disappear guys. Just what this place needed.

 

[Old Rocks]

The final act of the presidential campaign opens today with two new polls showing the race between Obama and Romney tightening. New polls, released this morning, from ABC/WaPo and Politico both show Obama's lead nationally has been cut to 2 points, 49-47. Also, in both polls, Romney leads Obama among Independents by 4 points.

Obviously, if Romney is leading among independents by 4, yet trailing overall by 2 points, both polls have probably sampled more Democrats. Indeed, the WaPo poll is D+5. This is a big improvement over past WaPo polls, which assumed that Democrats would have a bigger turnout than 2008's D+7 electorate. I think today's poll is still overly generous to Democrats, but it is more realistic than their previous polls. Politico's internals aren't yet available, but in the past their samples have been fairly reasonable.

The economy is clearly weighing Obama down. 81% of voters rate the economy as "not so good" or poor. In the WaPo poll, 60% of registered voters think the country is on the wrong track. A majority of RV disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, 47-52.

Interestingly, voters are now split on Obama's handling of foreign affairs, with 49% approving and 48% disapproving.

More troubling for Obama, a majority of voters, 53%, are not confident the economy will improve over the next year or two if Obama is reelected. Given that the economy is the defining issue of the campaign, this is a worrisome sign for the President's reelection.

The media spent the month of September trying to convince the public that the race was already over. This morning we learn, however, that it has just begun.

From Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

President Obama 269 Governor Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Florida President Obama 3.0

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

All four polls show the President ahead.

 

[edthecynic]

Oh now you like the polls?

Not only that, but also they have abandoned Ratmuffin, who has Obama 50% and Willard 47%!!!

 

[Lakhota]

Mitt Romney's Quest For Swing Vote An Uphill Battle, Say Republican Pollsters

 

[edthecynic]

Mitt Romney's Quest For Swing Vote An Uphill Battle, Say Republican Pollsters

Notice even Ratmuffin has Obama up by 6% in the swing states!

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

 

[Maple]

The final act of the presidential campaign opens today with two new polls showing the race between Obama and Romney tightening. New polls, released this morning, from ABC/WaPo and Politico both show Obama's lead nationally has been cut to 2 points, 49-47. Also, in both polls, Romney leads Obama among Independents by 4 points.

Obviously, if Romney is leading among independents by 4, yet trailing overall by 2 points, both polls have probably sampled more Democrats. Indeed, the WaPo poll is D+5. This is a big improvement over past WaPo polls, which assumed that Democrats would have a bigger turnout than 2008's D+7 electorate. I think today's poll is still overly generous to Democrats, but it is more realistic than their previous polls. Politico's internals aren't yet available, but in the past their samples have been fairly reasonable.

The economy is clearly weighing Obama down. 81% of voters rate the economy as "not so good" or poor. In the WaPo poll, 60% of registered voters think the country is on the wrong track. A majority of RV disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, 47-52.

Interestingly, voters are now split on Obama's handling of foreign affairs, with 49% approving and 48% disapproving.

More troubling for Obama, a majority of voters, 53%, are not confident the economy will improve over the next year or two if Obama is reelected. Given that the economy is the defining issue of the campaign, this is a worrisome sign for the President's reelection.

The media spent the month of September trying to convince the public that the race was already over. This morning we learn, however, that it has just begun.

From Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

Fact- No incumbent has ever won re-election when they don't break 50 by mid Sept. Obama has not broken that, the people who were there for him last time are not there in numbers this time. I think the debates will be important as it will show Romney on the same stage as Obama and people are looking to see how credible Romney comes across and they will see that he does and will vote for him, they are looking for a reason to vote against Obama and they will do it.

 

[Maple]

Mitt Romney's Quest For Swing Vote An Uphill Battle, Say Republican Pollsters

Notice even Ratmuffin has Obama up by 6% in the swing states!

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

If the President was a considered a good President he would leading by a much wider margin. Also in many of these polls they are not even talking to independents which have split by a 14 point margin to Romney, they are over-polling Democrats, calling 8 democrats to 1 republican anticipating a 2008 turnout. That's not going to happen, " as the thrill is gone" and there are a lot of people who have " lost that lovin feelin" for the President. But Nov 6th will be the final poll, but I am betting there are going to be a lot of people who are quite surprised.

 

[Joshuatree]

Mitt Romney's Quest For Swing Vote An Uphill Battle, Say Republican Pollsters

Notice even Ratmuffin has Obama up by 6% in the swing states!

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Wait until after the debates, these numbers will change. In 2008 McCain couldn't close the gap but this time Obama is not the "hope and change" guy anymore, he has a record and it's not a good one. Obama is much more vulnerable today than he was back in 2008.

 

[Maple]

These polls are conducted by land lines and most of the people I know don't even have a land line, most are cell phones which are not called.

 

[candycorn]

Mitt Romney's Quest For Swing Vote An Uphill Battle, Say Republican Pollsters

Notice even Ratmuffin has Obama up by 6% in the swing states!

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Wait until after the debates, these numbers will change. In 2008 McCain couldn't close the gap but this time Obama is not the "hope and change" guy anymore, he has a record and it's not a good one. Obama is much more vulnerable today than he was back in 2008.

He'll "only" beat Romney by 50+ electoral votes and only 4,000,000 popular votes. As far as that goes, you're right.

 

[Jroc]

Mitt Romney's Quest For Swing Vote An Uphill Battle, Say Republican Pollsters

Notice even Ratmuffin has Obama up by 6% in the swing states!

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Is that a combined average of all the "swing states"? What a useless stat that is

 

[Joshuatree]

Notice even Ratmuffin has Obama up by 6% in the swing states!

Daily Swing State Tracking Poll - Rasmussen Reports™

In the 11 swing states, the president earns 51% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Wait until after the debates, these numbers will change. In 2008 McCain couldn't close the gap but this time Obama is not the "hope and change" guy anymore, he has a record and it's not a good one. Obama is much more vulnerable today than he was back in 2008.

He'll "only" beat Romney by 50+ electoral votes and only 4,000,000 popular votes. As far as that goes, you're right.

I see you are overly confident, but be carefull, you might feel a little butt hurt on November 6th.

 

[candycorn]

Wait until after the debates, these numbers will change. In 2008 McCain couldn't close the gap but this time Obama is not the "hope and change" guy anymore, he has a record and it's not a good one. Obama is much more vulnerable today than he was back in 2008.

He'll "only" beat Romney by 50+ electoral votes and only 4,000,000 popular votes. As far as that goes, you're right.

I see you are overly confident, but be carefull, you might feel a little butt hurt on November 6th.

No chance. Obama is cruising! I was over confident when Romney began winning in the primaries. This election was over when he clinched the GOP nomination.