Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by longknife, Oct 1, 2012.

  1. longknife
    Offline

    longknife Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Sep 21, 2012
    Messages:
    25,198
    Thanks Received:
    8,346
    Trophy Points:
    900
    Location:
    Sin City
    Ratings:
    +13,575
    The final act of the presidential campaign opens today with two new polls showing the race between Obama and Romney tightening. New polls, released this morning, from ABC/WaPo and Politico both show Obama's lead nationally has been cut to 2 points, 49-47. Also, in both polls, Romney leads Obama among Independents by 4 points.

    Obviously, if Romney is leading among independents by 4, yet trailing overall by 2 points, both polls have probably sampled more Democrats. Indeed, the WaPo poll is D+5. This is a big improvement over past WaPo polls, which assumed that Democrats would have a bigger turnout than 2008's D+7 electorate. I think today's poll is still overly generous to Democrats, but it is more realistic than their previous polls. Politico's internals aren't yet available, but in the past their samples have been fairly reasonable.

    The economy is clearly weighing Obama down. 81% of voters rate the economy as "not so good" or poor. In the WaPo poll, 60% of registered voters think the country is on the wrong track. A majority of RV disapprove of Obama's handling of the economy, 47-52.

    Interestingly, voters are now split on Obama's handling of foreign affairs, with 49% approving and 48% disapproving.

    More troubling for Obama, a majority of voters, 53%, are not confident the economy will improve over the next year or two if Obama is reelected. Given that the economy is the defining issue of the campaign, this is a worrisome sign for the President's reelection.

    The media spent the month of September trying to convince the public that the race was already over. This morning we learn, however, that it has just begun.

    From Polls Show Romney Gaining Ground, Winning Independents

    :cool:
     
  2. Truthmatters
    Offline

    Truthmatters BANNED

    Joined:
    May 10, 2007
    Messages:
    80,182
    Thanks Received:
    2,223
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Ratings:
    +2,233
    Oh now you like the polls?
     
  3. NYcarbineer
    Offline

    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    96,106
    Thanks Received:
    11,269
    Trophy Points:
    2,060
    Location:
    Finger Lakes, NY
    Ratings:
    +30,256
    The ABC poll represents a 1 point gain for Obama from the last time it was taken.

    The Politico poll represents a 1 point loss for Obama from the last time it was taken.

    So no, these polls do not show the race tightening.
     
  4. candycorn
    Offline

    candycorn Alis volat propriis

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2009
    Messages:
    37,529
    Thanks Received:
    4,546
    Trophy Points:
    1,130
    Ratings:
    +12,058
    The OP shows the author has a screw or two loose though.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  5. mascale
    Offline

    mascale VIP Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2009
    Messages:
    4,035
    Thanks Received:
    210
    Trophy Points:
    85
    Ratings:
    +453
    So someone is noting the below. The move to national optimism possibly means that it finally rained somewhere, even in the Red States: Where the "victims" are located. The likability gap would be better stated, ". . . .while on the other hand, 71% of those polled consider Romney to be an asshole, first-class!"
    ___________________________

    . A move toward national optimism: As we have seen in a few recent national polls, the Post-ABC poll now shows an appreciable movement toward those willing to say the country is lurching in the right direction. Thirty eight percent said things are now going in the right direction, the highest that number has been in Post-ABC polling since January 2011. In just the last month, the “right direction” number has jumped nine points. It’s not immediately clear why people are suddenly feeling better about the country’s path — the economic indicators remain mixed — but there is now enough data from enough different sources to conclude there is some clear movement toward optimism.

    4. The massive likability gap: In an election full of tight margins, Obama continues to hold a massive edge over Romney on the question of who is the “more friendly and likable person”. Sixty-two percent named Obama while 29 percent chose Romney, a massive 33-point gap that Romney has been unable to diminish even with a convention that was designed to soften the image of him as a ruthless businessman. At issue is how much the likability question will matter to voting behavior. We are of the belief that people vote for president less on issues than on their sense of whether a candidate “gets” them. If that’s true, then the likability gap is meaningful. But, there is also an argument to be made that in difficult economic times like these, who you like as a candidate is less important than who you think can get the job done.
    ____________________________

    Even Hollywood understands about "assholes." An empty chair on stage is really not one. . . .whereas some improv stunts are just. . . .silly. . .is probably not how little kids say it anymore!

    There are still forty-odd days to turn things around. . .or get them to stand up straight. . . or something!

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (So actually, if it comes down to Romney v. Al Gore: Then Al Gore. . . .Is probably even better qualified for the job!)
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2012
  6. mascale
    Offline

    mascale VIP Member

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2009
    Messages:
    4,035
    Thanks Received:
    210
    Trophy Points:
    85
    Ratings:
    +453
    To corroborate the shift in to more upbeat optimism is the major swing in how voters seem to be hearing news about the economy.

    Only a year ago, virtually everyone was heaing only bad news. Now the only people hearing mostly bad news watch the Romney-Ryan ads, and so they are Republicans.

    Independents are hearing far less bad economic news.

    Democrats are hearing hardly any bad economic news at all!

    How The Economy Collapsed (As a Political Issue)

    Since the subject of victims has not been raised(?), just possible the Romeny-Ryan voters had followed along Bain Capital advice, invested heavily, and got caught inthe crash. Not that many of the others got all the much of the Bush deficit spending, sent to the already prosperous to lose in the crash(?)!

    Romney understands business, like that(?)!

    "Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
    (Many now come to Lands of Many Nations: Still rolling the dice, not expecting a crash at all, anytime soon!)
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  7. ABikerSailor
    Offline

    ABikerSailor Platinum Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2008
    Messages:
    31,423
    Thanks Received:
    4,813
    Trophy Points:
    1,140
    Location:
    Amarillo TX
    Ratings:
    +8,457
    Sorry, but I don't really regard Breitbart TV as anything other than a far right wing site that will try to spin anything to the benefit of their side, no matter how much fuzzy math they have to use.
     
    • Thank You! Thank You! x 1
  8. NYcarbineer
    Offline

    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    96,106
    Thanks Received:
    11,269
    Trophy Points:
    2,060
    Location:
    Finger Lakes, NY
    Ratings:
    +30,256
    He appears to be another one of those start a thread then disappear guys. Just what this place needed.
     
  9. Old Rocks
    Offline

    Old Rocks Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Messages:
    46,474
    Thanks Received:
    5,416
    Trophy Points:
    1,840
    Location:
    Portland, Ore.
    Ratings:
    +10,318
    President Obama 269 Governor Romney 191

    RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

    Florida President Obama 3.0

    RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

    All four polls show the President ahead.
     
  10. edthecynic
    Offline

    edthecynic Censored for Cynicism

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2008
    Messages:
    26,603
    Thanks Received:
    3,080
    Trophy Points:
    260
    Ratings:
    +5,702
    Not only that, but also they have abandoned Ratmuffin, who has Obama 50% and Willard 47%!!!
     

Share This Page