by Scott Rasmussen @ Polls Reflect Voter Reality, Not Pundits’ Preoccupations | Right Wing News
According to Political Class pundits, the race for the White House was turned upside down by a single debate. The reality, however, is that a very close race shifted ever so slightly from narrowly favoring President Obama to narrowly favoring Mitt Romney. Either way, it remains too close to call.
The difference is that voters base their decisions on the substantive issues in the world around them. The Political Class is distracted by superficial imagery, an obsession with the game of politics and the sound of their own voices.
While it might to those in the Political Class, Election 2012 has been stable all year. Oh, sure, there have been occasional mini-surges where one candidate gained a little ground temporarily. But its been close all along.
Thats because elections are primarily about fundamentals. In January, the most important fundamental was that the presidents job approval rating had been stuck around 47 percent or 48 percent for two full years. Thats good enough to be competitive but not good enough to ensure victory. An Electoral College analysis in January showed that four states were likely to be decisive Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina.
Fast forward to the final month of the campaign, and nothing has really changed. The presidents job approval has barely moved because nothing in the real world has caused people to think differently of his performance. Voters are not better off than they were four years ago but theyre not worse off, either.
[More @ link]
According to Political Class pundits, the race for the White House was turned upside down by a single debate. The reality, however, is that a very close race shifted ever so slightly from narrowly favoring President Obama to narrowly favoring Mitt Romney. Either way, it remains too close to call.
The difference is that voters base their decisions on the substantive issues in the world around them. The Political Class is distracted by superficial imagery, an obsession with the game of politics and the sound of their own voices.
While it might to those in the Political Class, Election 2012 has been stable all year. Oh, sure, there have been occasional mini-surges where one candidate gained a little ground temporarily. But its been close all along.
Thats because elections are primarily about fundamentals. In January, the most important fundamental was that the presidents job approval rating had been stuck around 47 percent or 48 percent for two full years. Thats good enough to be competitive but not good enough to ensure victory. An Electoral College analysis in January showed that four states were likely to be decisive Ohio, Virginia, Florida, and North Carolina.
Fast forward to the final month of the campaign, and nothing has really changed. The presidents job approval has barely moved because nothing in the real world has caused people to think differently of his performance. Voters are not better off than they were four years ago but theyre not worse off, either.
[More @ link]
