Polls influence politicians who pass policies ...but do the polls actually represent US?

[healthmyths]

In recent Gallup poll regarding party affiliation...

2018 May 1-10 26% GOP 29% Democrat
Party Affiliation

YET looking at the following 3 recent polls and you can check these numbers out:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
CNN used 303 Democrats Versus 253 GOP or 5% more Democrats i.e. 51 more Democrats.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf ---
CBS use 342 Democrats to 271 GOP or 71 more democrats.

Reuters counted 722 Democrats to 629 GOP or 93 more Democrats.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf

This means in just 3 polls the pollsters used 6% more Democrats than GOP contrary to the voter identification
of just 3% more Democrats per Gallup's above poll.

Is it no wonder then you have to constantly view polls as skewed.

Now some of you say will that's who's answering the phone more Democrats than GOP...maybe but
the importance of getting a closer to the actual profile of the American voter's party preference in that
policies affect us all disproportionately if the politicians use the biased polls.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

In recent Gallup poll regarding party affiliation...

2018 May 1-10 26% GOP 29% Democrat
Party Affiliation

YET looking at the following 3 recent polls and you can check these numbers out:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
CNN used 303 Democrats Versus 253 GOP or 5% more Democrats i.e. 51 more Democrats.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf ---
CBS use 342 Democrats to 271 GOP or 71 more democrats.

Reuters counted 722 Democrats to 629 GOP or 93 more Democrats.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf

This means in just 3 polls the pollsters used 6% more Democrats than GOP contrary to the voter identification
of just 3% more Democrats per Gallup's above poll.

Is it no wonder then you have to constantly view polls as skewed.

Now some of you say will that's who's answering the phone more Democrats than GOP...maybe but
the importance of getting a closer to the actual profile of the American voter's party preference in that
policies affect us all disproportionately if the politicians use the biased polls.

Any poll done by a professional organization has a weighting process to account for a group(s) being being under sampled due to the nature of random sampling.

This is not something new, if you read the methodology of any poll you can find their system for dealing with this.


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[healthmyths]

In recent Gallup poll regarding party affiliation...

2018 May 1-10 26% GOP 29% Democrat
Party Affiliation

YET looking at the following 3 recent polls and you can check these numbers out:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
CNN used 303 Democrats Versus 253 GOP or 5% more Democrats i.e. 51 more Democrats.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf ---
CBS use 342 Democrats to 271 GOP or 71 more democrats.

Reuters counted 722 Democrats to 629 GOP or 93 more Democrats.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf

This means in just 3 polls the pollsters used 6% more Democrats than GOP contrary to the voter identification
of just 3% more Democrats per Gallup's above poll.

Is it no wonder then you have to constantly view polls as skewed.

Now some of you say will that's who's answering the phone more Democrats than GOP...maybe but
the importance of getting a closer to the actual profile of the American voter's party preference in that
policies affect us all disproportionately if the politicians use the biased polls.

Any poll done by a professional organization has a weighting process to account for a group(s) being being under sampled due to the nature of random sampling.

This is not something new, if you read the methodology of any poll you can find their system for dealing with this.


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You obviously DON"T READ the methodology statements of the polls.... DO YOU SEE ANY QUESTION regarding political affiliation?
NOPE!!!

Read the facts: CNN methodology:
IPSO https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf

• The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:– Gender
  
  – Age
  – Education
  – Ethnicity
  – Region
  
  From CNN poll methodology:
  http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
  All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for
  gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.
  
  From CBS poll methodology: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf
  Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.
  
  
  

 

[healthmyths]

I just check https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL32701.pdf and found nothing in Census demographics regarding political affiliation!

Also checked with Pew and check this out: Frequently asked questions

Other demographic items that are not used for weighting, but that are used often for analysis, include a respondent’s marital status, religious affiliation and attendance, income, voter registration status, political party affiliation, political ideology, agreement with the Tea Party, labor union membership, whether the respondent is a parent and whether the respondent owns or rents his or her home.

 

[healthmyths]

In recent Gallup poll regarding party affiliation...

2018 May 1-10 26% GOP 29% Democrat
Party Affiliation

YET looking at the following 3 recent polls and you can check these numbers out:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
CNN used 303 Democrats Versus 253 GOP or 5% more Democrats i.e. 51 more Democrats.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf ---
CBS use 342 Democrats to 271 GOP or 71 more democrats.

Reuters counted 722 Democrats to 629 GOP or 93 more Democrats.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf

This means in just 3 polls the pollsters used 6% more Democrats than GOP contrary to the voter identification
of just 3% more Democrats per Gallup's above poll.

Is it no wonder then you have to constantly view polls as skewed.

Now some of you say will that's who's answering the phone more Democrats than GOP...maybe but
the importance of getting a closer to the actual profile of the American voter's party preference in that
policies affect us all disproportionately if the politicians use the biased polls.

Any poll done by a professional organization has a weighting process to account for a group(s) being being under sampled due to the nature of random sampling.

This is not something new, if you read the methodology of any poll you can find their system for dealing with this.


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I'm waiting for your response to your erroneous ASSUMPTION without your reading METHODOLOGY the party affiliation IS NOT part of the characteristics pollster use.

See you are perpetuating the lack of awareness how the MSM is manipulating public opinion and thanks to the Internet facts and realities are now available.

 

[healthmyths]

Golfing Gator...

I'm waiting for your response to my responses showing your assumption that pollsters methodology "weighs" political affiliation was erroneous.

 

[whitehall]

How were the polls so wrong in the last election? The short answer is that the polls indicated the results they wanted rather than reality. It's easy to skew a poll outside of fudging the numbers. Just select a certain demographic and word the questions a certain way. One or two thousand people do not indicate the opinion of the Country and never have.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Golfing Gator...

I'm waiting for your response to my responses showing your assumption that pollsters methodology "weighs" political affiliation was erroneous.

Thank you for the correction, I stand corrected. I will admit that I am somewhat surprised they do not weight for that.



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[Harpy Eagle]

How were the polls so wrong in the last election? The short answer is that the polls indicated the results they wanted rather than reality. It's easy to skew a poll outside of fudging the numbers. Just select a certain demographic and word the questions a certain way. One or two thousand people do not indicate the opinion of the Country and never have.

The final polls showed Hillary winning the popular vote by anywhere from 2 to 5 percent.

I do not think they got it all that wrong at all.


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[healthmyths]

Golfing Gator...

I'm waiting for your response to my responses showing your assumption that pollsters methodology "weighs" political affiliation was erroneous.

Thank you for the correction, I stand corrected. I will admit that I am somewhat surprised they do not weight for that.



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I agree! I think the importance of knowing your political swaying colors the results.

 

[healthmyths]

How were the polls so wrong in the last election? The short answer is that the polls indicated the results they wanted rather than reality. It's easy to skew a poll outside of fudging the numbers. Just select a certain demographic and word the questions a certain way. One or two thousand people do not indicate the opinion of the Country and never have.

You are 100% correct!

The MSM influence has been felt in the Obama election in this way.
Iowa has long been considered the bell weather primary state.
The problem is Iowa caucus requires in many cases the caucus voter to literally stand with others for their choice.
In Iowa in 2008 microphones/reporters with pads stand in the same rooms watching and waiting to see how many Iowans were racists by NOT standing for Obama.
Hence a majority of Iowans not wanting to be labeled "hicks", "racists", whatever sobriquet the MSM would add literally stood for Obama.
As a result the MSM influenced Iowans to stand for Obama or else be called racist.

The same affect held for pollsters asking people who were going to be for Trump.
With the majority of the MSM FOR Hillary... and proof is" 85% of the 1,353 network news anchors,editors,executives donated over $1 million to Obama and Democrats so why would anything these reporters/editors/producers write be objective?"
Obama, Democrats got 88 percent of 2008 contributions by TV network execs, writers, reporters

So the same process that occurred in 2008 occurred in 2016...but in reverse..."you are voting for Trump, a 'racist', homophobe',etc"?
With 2,014 adults surveyed, only 6% expressed “a lot of confidence” in the press.
Only 6% Trust Media, But It Should Be Less | Stock News & Stock Market Analysis - IBD

 

[blastoff]

In recent Gallup poll regarding party affiliation...

2018 May 1-10 26% GOP 29% Democrat
Party Affiliation

YET looking at the following 3 recent polls and you can check these numbers out:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
CNN used 303 Democrats Versus 253 GOP or 5% more Democrats i.e. 51 more Democrats.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf ---
CBS use 342 Democrats to 271 GOP or 71 more democrats.

Reuters counted 722 Democrats to 629 GOP or 93 more Democrats.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf

This means in just 3 polls the pollsters used 6% more Democrats than GOP contrary to the voter identification
of just 3% more Democrats per Gallup's above poll.

Is it no wonder then you have to constantly view polls as skewed.

Now some of you say will that's who's answering the phone more Democrats than GOP...maybe but
the importance of getting a closer to the actual profile of the American voter's party preference in that
policies affect us all disproportionately if the politicians use the biased polls.

Well gosh oh gee could this be how virtually every poll leading up to 2016 had the Hildebeast an absolute shoo-in and dims and liberal dopes swallowing it all as gospel and planning for that big election night fireworks display? Dumbasses were surprised as hell and deservedly so, while we just sat back and laughed our asses off at the shock and awe that engulfed the MSLSD and Created News Network’s coverage teams that night.

 

[Sahba]

In recent Gallup poll regarding party affiliation...

2018 May 1-10 26% GOP 29% Democrat
Party Affiliation

YET looking at the following 3 recent polls and you can check these numbers out:

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
CNN used 303 Democrats Versus 253 GOP or 5% more Democrats i.e. 51 more Democrats.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf ---
CBS use 342 Democrats to 271 GOP or 71 more democrats.

Reuters counted 722 Democrats to 629 GOP or 93 more Democrats.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf

This means in just 3 polls the pollsters used 6% more Democrats than GOP contrary to the voter identification
of just 3% more Democrats per Gallup's above poll.

Is it no wonder then you have to constantly view polls as skewed.

Now some of you say will that's who's answering the phone more Democrats than GOP...maybe but
the importance of getting a closer to the actual profile of the American voter's party preference in that
policies affect us all disproportionately if the politicians use the biased polls.

One of the moderators, in particular, should read this post... data never lies, data is never influenced by what the framers want it to say... lol