Polls influence politicians who pass policies ...but do the polls actually represent US?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by healthmyths, Jun 25, 2018.

  1. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    In recent Gallup poll regarding party affiliation...

    2018 May 1-10 26% GOP 29% Democrat
    Party Affiliation

    YET looking at the following 3 recent polls and you can check these numbers out:

    http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
    CNN used 303 Democrats Versus 253 GOP or 5% more Democrats i.e. 51 more Democrats.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf ---
    CBS use 342 Democrats to 271 GOP or 71 more democrats.

    Reuters counted 722 Democrats to 629 GOP or 93 more Democrats.
    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf

    This means in just 3 polls the pollsters used 6% more Democrats than GOP contrary to the voter identification
    of just 3% more Democrats per Gallup's above poll.

    Is it no wonder then you have to constantly view polls as skewed.

    Now some of you say will that's who's answering the phone more Democrats than GOP...maybe but
    the importance of getting a closer to the actual profile of the American voter's party preference in that
    policies affect us all disproportionately if the politicians use the biased polls.
     
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  2. Golfing Gator
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    Golfing Gator Gold Member

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    Any poll done by a professional organization has a weighting process to account for a group(s) being being under sampled due to the nature of random sampling.

    This is not something new, if you read the methodology of any poll you can find their system for dealing with this.


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  3. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    You obviously DON"T READ the methodology statements of the polls.... DO YOU SEE ANY QUESTION regarding political affiliation?
    NOPE!!!

    Read the facts: CNN methodology:
    IPSO https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default...ters_tracking_-_core_political_06_20_2018.pdf
    • The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:– Gender

      – Age
      – Education
      – Ethnicity
      – Region

      From CNN poll methodology:
      http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/06/18/rel6a.-.immigration.pdf
      All respondents were asked questions concerning basic demographics, and the entire sample was weighted to reflect national Census figures for
      gender, race, age, education, region of country, and telephone usage.

      From CBS poll methodology: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/CBS_News_June_18_2018.pdf
      Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables.


     
  4. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    I just check https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL32701.pdf and found nothing in Census demographics regarding political affiliation!

    Also checked with Pew and check this out: Frequently asked questions

    Other demographic items that are not used for weighting, but that are used often for analysis, include a respondent’s marital status, religious affiliation and attendance, income, voter registration status, political party affiliation, political ideology, agreement with the Tea Party, labor union membership, whether the respondent is a parent and whether the respondent owns or rents his or her home.
     
  5. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    I'm waiting for your response to your erroneous ASSUMPTION without your reading METHODOLOGY the party affiliation IS NOT part of the characteristics pollster use.

    See you are perpetuating the lack of awareness how the MSM is manipulating public opinion and thanks to the Internet facts and realities are now available.
     
  6. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Golfing Gator...

    I'm waiting for your response to my responses showing your assumption that pollsters methodology "weighs" political affiliation was erroneous.
     
  7. whitehall
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    whitehall Platinum Member

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    How were the polls so wrong in the last election? The short answer is that the polls indicated the results they wanted rather than reality. It's easy to skew a poll outside of fudging the numbers. Just select a certain demographic and word the questions a certain way. One or two thousand people do not indicate the opinion of the Country and never have.
     
  8. Golfing Gator
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    Golfing Gator Gold Member

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    Thank you for the correction, I stand corrected. I will admit that I am somewhat surprised they do not weight for that.



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  9. Golfing Gator
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    The final polls showed Hillary winning the popular vote by anywhere from 2 to 5 percent.

    I do not think they got it all that wrong at all.


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  10. healthmyths
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    healthmyths Gold Member Supporting Member

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    I agree! I think the importance of knowing your political swaying colors the results.
     

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