Polls - 10/29/08

[DavidS]

Well, Paperboy said Obama supporters should be posting more polls on here. So here I am.

First poll of the morning:

Zogby - Obama +5. 49 - 44. That's a one point increase for Obama.

 

[jreeves]

Well, Paperboy said Obama supporters should be posting more polls on here. So here I am.

First poll of the morning:

Zogby - Obama +5. 49 - 44. That's a one point increase for Obama.

Polls are highly unreliable....

But tell me if you notice a trend between these polls and the actual returns in these primary contests?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Texas Democratic Primary
Final Results -- -- 50.9 47.4 Clinton +3.5
RCP Average 02/27 - 03/03 -- 47.4 45.7 Clinton +1.7
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 03/01 - 03/03 855 LV 47 44 Clinton +3.0
InsiderAdvantage 03/02 - 03/02 609 LV 49 44 Clinton +5.0
Rasmussen 03/02 - 03/02 710 LV 47 48 Obama +1.0
SurveyUSA 03/01 - 03/02 840 LV 48 49 Obama +1.0
PPP (D) 03/01 - 03/02 755 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
WFAA/Belo Tracking 02/29 - 03/02 728 LV 46 45 Clinton +1.0
M-D/Star-Telegram 02/27 - 02/29 625 LV 45 46 Obama +1.0

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - New Hampshire Democratic Primary
Final Results -- -- 36.4 39.0 16.9 4.6 Clinton +2.6
RCP Average 01/05 - 01/07 -- 38.3 30.0 18.3 5.7 Obama +8.3
American Res. Group 01/06 - 01/07 600 LV 40 31 20 4 Obama +9.0
Suffolk/WHDH 01/06 - 01/07 500 LV 39 34 15 4 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 01/05 - 01/07 1774 LV 37 30 19 8 Obama +7.0
ReutersC-Span/Zogby 01/05 - 01/07 862 LV 42 29 17 5 Obama +13.0
CBS News 01/05 - 01/06 323 LV 35 28 19 5 Obama +7.0
Marist 01/05 - 01/06 636 LV 36 28 22 7 Obama +8.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH 01/05 - 01/06 599 LV 39 30 16 7 Obama +9.0

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Ohio Democratic Primary
Final Results -- -- 54.2 44.1 Clinton +10.1
RCP Average 02/27 - 03/03 -- 50.1 43.0 Clinton +7.1 Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 03/01 - 03/03 828 LV 44 44 Tie
Rasmussen 03/02 - 03/02 858 LV 50 44 Clinton +6.0
SurveyUSA 03/01 - 03/02 873 LV 54 44 Clinton +10.0
PPP (D) 03/01 - 03/02 1112 LV 51 42 Clinton +9.0
Suffolk 03/01 - 03/02 400 LV 52 40 Clinton +12.0
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 02/28 - 03/02 624 LV 51 42 Clinton +9.0
Quinnipiac 02/27 - 03/02 799 LV 49 45 Clinton +4.0

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - West Virginia Democratic Primary

Final Results -- -- 67.0 25.7 Clinton +41.3
RCP Average 05/03 - 05/11 -- 59.7 24.7 Clinton +35.0 Suffolk 05/10 - 05/11 600 LV 60 24 Clinton +36.0
Rasmussen 05/04 - 05/04 840 LV 56 27 Clinton +29.0
TSG Consulting (D) 05/03 - 05/03 300 LV 63 23 Clinton +40.0


RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - California Democratic Primary
Final Results -- -- 42.3 51.9 Clinton +9.6
RCP Average 02/01 - 02/04 -- 44.0 42.8 Obama +1.2
SurveyUSA 02/03 - 02/04 872 LV 42 52 Clinton +10.0
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 02/03 - 02/04 895 LV 49 36 Obama +13.0
Suffolk 02/01 - 02/03 700 LV 40 39 Obama +1.0
Rasmussen 02/02 - 02/02 798 LV 45 44 Obama +1.0


In all of these contests Obama underperformed his poll numbers, sometimes by wide margins. Imagine if this trend holds for the general election? Say we see a California type, Poll vs. Actual return scenario. According to the RCP average polling Mccain would win by 4 or 5 points.....

 

[Caligirl]

How about this one?

Tales from the Trail Blog Archive Obama has 19-point lead with early voters — Pew | Blogs | Reuters.com

 

[DavidS]

Polls are highly unreliable.... But tell me if you notice a trend between these polls and the actual returns in these primary contests?

You're talking about an "average" of polls. In each instance Clinton or Obama won within 1 or 2 points of one of the polls. The only time the RCA did not predict the winner was in NH.

If I was a betting man, I would say Obama wins within 5-6 points. There's no way to even predict what he'll do on the electoral college... but McCain will get slaughtered there.

All Obama needs to in order to win the election vote is to win all the states Kerry won last year and then win Virginia and Iowa. If Obama wins Florida, or Ohio, the election is over before we even reach Iowa.

 

[DavidS]

How about this one?

Tales from the Trail Blog Archive Obama has 19-point lead with early voters — Pew | Blogs | Reuters.com

Shhh! You can't quote liberal media sources! They'll say that you're an elitist!

 

[jreeves]

How about this one?

Tales from the Trail Blog Archive Obama has 19-point lead with early voters — Pew | Blogs | Reuters.com

Yes, so it's another poll, the average is 6.7% on Real Clear Politics. Which by the way has dropped from yesterday?

 

[Caligirl]

It's a poll of people who have already voted. Paperboy said early voters split 50:50, PEW says Obama has a 19 point lead among people who have already voted.

 

[DiveCon]

It's a poll of SOME people who have already voted. Paperboy said early voters split 50:50, PEW says Obama has a 19 point lead among people who have already voted.

fixed

 

[Caligirl]

I didn't say it was accurate silly, I was just adding to the thread that david started about today's polls.

 

[jreeves]

You're talking about an "average" of polls. In each instance Clinton or Obama won within 1 or 2 points of one of the polls. The only time the RCA did not predict the winner was in NH.
If I was a betting man, I would say Obama wins within 5-6 points. There's no way to even predict what he'll do on the electoral college... but McCain will get slaughtered there.

All Obama needs to in order to win the election vote is to win all the states Kerry won last year and then win Virginia and Iowa. If Obama wins Florida, or Ohio, the election is over before we even reach Iowa.

What if this is the NH exception? The average of polls would hold more statistical weight than an individual poll, btw.

In your analysis, you use if's and "all Obama needs to". If Mccain wins all he needs to do is get 270 electors. See how silly that seems?

 

[Chris]

What if this is the NH exception? The average of polls would hold more statistical weight than an individual poll, btw.

In your analysis, you use if's and "all Obama needs to". If Mccain wins all he needs to do is get 270 electors. See how silly that seems?

Is McCain going to start crying the way Hillary did in New Hampshire?

By the way, want to put a $1,000 bet on who wins the election?

 

[jreeves]

Is McCain going to start crying the way Hillary did in New Hampshire?

By the way, want to put a $1,000 bet on who wins the election?

Nope he'll leave that to you after the election...
Sure thing...

 

[DiveCon]

Nope he'll leave that to you after the election...
Sure thing...

i still believe this is a very close election and could go either way

but i would love it if McCain pulls it out
ole kirky/Chrisy would have a hissy fit