Polling samples

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by thereisnospoon, Sep 19, 2012.

  1. Liability
    Offline

    Liability Locked Account. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2009
    Messages:
    35,447
    Thanks Received:
    5,047
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Mansion in Ravi's Head
    Ratings:
    +5,063
    Give it about a week AFTER 10/3/2012: The polling numbers are not going to be pretty for the incumbent.

    And it will not even matter all that much that there will likely still be oversampling of Dims and that the inclusion of just Registered Voters is the preferred methodology.
     
  2. NYcarbineer
    Offline

    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    111,379
    Thanks Received:
    13,119
    Trophy Points:
    2,210
    Location:
    Finger Lakes, NY
    Ratings:
    +40,025
    And what is the correct sample, and how do you know what the correct sample is?
     
  3. depotoo
    Offline

    depotoo Gold Member

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2012
    Messages:
    19,907
    Thanks Received:
    4,266
    Trophy Points:
    280
    Ratings:
    +11,407
    you tell us, why don't you. What is the correct sample and how do you know what it is?
    From my earlier post regarding the numbers -
    That poll was taken from Sept. 9-11, of which the likely voters, 42% considered themselves Democrats, and 36% considered themselves Republican.
     
  4. NYcarbineer
    Offline

    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    111,379
    Thanks Received:
    13,119
    Trophy Points:
    2,210
    Location:
    Finger Lakes, NY
    Ratings:
    +40,025
    I'm not the one accusing all these polls of 'oversampling'.
     
  5. NYcarbineer
    Offline

    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    111,379
    Thanks Received:
    13,119
    Trophy Points:
    2,210
    Location:
    Finger Lakes, NY
    Ratings:
    +40,025
    I asked you about that poll you didn't answer.
     
  6. Liability
    Offline

    Liability Locked Account. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2009
    Messages:
    35,447
    Thanks Received:
    5,047
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Mansion in Ravi's Head
    Ratings:
    +5,063
    I already linked an answer, you incredibly dense piece of worthless hack lib shit.

    And the answer I linked COULD be off. But it probably isn't off so badly that Dims should be sampled in double digits MORE than Republicans.
     
  7. NYcarbineer
    Offline

    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    111,379
    Thanks Received:
    13,119
    Trophy Points:
    2,210
    Location:
    Finger Lakes, NY
    Ratings:
    +40,025
    You linked to Rasmussen, the pro-Republican outlier in most of the polls.
     
  8. NYcarbineer
    Offline

    NYcarbineer Diamond Member

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2009
    Messages:
    111,379
    Thanks Received:
    13,119
    Trophy Points:
    2,210
    Location:
    Finger Lakes, NY
    Ratings:
    +40,025
    Foxnews is just out with state polls showing Obama with BIG leads in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.

    Does anyone want to write that off as part of the liberal media's polling conspiracy?
     
  9. Liability
    Offline

    Liability Locked Account. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2009
    Messages:
    35,447
    Thanks Received:
    5,047
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Mansion in Ravi's Head
    Ratings:
    +5,063
    :lol:

    I went to the source, picking one state at random. Florida.

    FL.:
    Is it a pure coincidence that the RESULTS are:


    AND:

    In a state with a slight voter registration edge for Dims but solid Republican majorities statewide, that 5% point spread strikes me as being pretty damn suspect.

    If there is a flaw in the methodology of the telephone polling, perhaps it has to get identified and addressed. But it sure as hell doesn't seem to be accurate.

    One need not engage in any "conspiracy theory" speculation. The numbers themselves suggest the existence of at least a methodological problem.

    Feel obligated to deny it. :lmao:


    EDIT: the SOURCE of the polling results/quotes referenced above is: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/int...e-over-romney-among-likely-voters-in-florida/
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2012
  10. Liability
    Offline

    Liability Locked Account. Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2009
    Messages:
    35,447
    Thanks Received:
    5,047
    Trophy Points:
    48
    Location:
    Mansion in Ravi's Head
    Ratings:
    +5,063
    Ohio?

    42 D to 36 R

    Really?
     

Share This Page